TIMEDOT COM ATAU TIME DOT GONE?

Prestasi meleset Time dotCom memang sudah dijangka. Umumnya beberapa faktor menjadi penyebabnya:

1. Permintaan global meleset kepada saham internet
2. Harga yang ditawar terlalu tinggi
3. Ramalan untung terlalu optimis dan indah kabar.
4. Saingan saham lain lebih berbaloi, banyak pakar, dan berpengalaman.
5. Time dotCom paling kecil pengguna sokongannya atau liputan jalinannya
6. Ekonomi sedang merudum
   
7. Tidak pernah untung....
   Rugi RM 2.3 billion 1998
   Rugi RM 124.8 juta tahun 1999,
   Rugi RM 2.6 juta in 2000 (anggaran).
   
8. Tiada rakan kongsi luar atau pakar
9. Sejarah Renong menindas pemegang saham minoriti
10. Time Engineering memilikki 45% time dotCom.
11. Pasaran sudah tepu - terlebih bekalan. Terbayang nasib teruk Syarikat British Telecom dan Turkey Telekom.
12. Benci kepada Renong
    
13. Masih mentah dan muda sudah mahu tunjuk sombong....

KOMEN

Saham Time dotCom nampaknya menjadi Time dotGone.... Sebenarnya Time tersilap besar kerana menyenaraikannya tergesa-gesa. Mungkin mereka kempunan dana maka dirancang ketika indeks saham sedang mendaki dan A.S. belum merudum lagi. Dapatlah mereka membalun banyak wang jika diletakkan harga tawaran yang tinggi. Lagipun mereka tetap akan dapat wang tetapi penjamin (underwriter) dan pelaburlah yang akan rugi. Soal malu mereka tidak ambil perduli.

Awal tahun ini pengguna begitu sangsi sehingga menjunam habis NASDAQ dan syarikat berteknologi di A.S, termasuk syarikat jalinan (network) dan telekomunikasi seperti Cisco, Lucent, Nortel dan AT&T. Pilihanraya presiden A.S. menyebabkan jajaran semula (market forces adjustment and realignment) dalam pola bisnes.

Telekomunikasi bukan sekadar wayar (gentian optik) sahaja. Sesuatu perlu ada dan dicipta untuk menggunakan wayar tersebut. Tetapi di manakah kepakaran Time dalam hal ini? Ia kelihatan menonjolkan permintaan pasaran yang tinggi tetapi tidak faham keperluan realiti. Laluan fiber itu dianggapnya satu jalanraya untuk dikutip tol saban hari.

Dunia perhubungan maklumat kini sedang bertembung (converging) tetapi ia memerlukan teknologi dan ilmu untuk menggabung. Tanpa itu kita tidak akan terkeluar dari kepompong. Di sinilah syarikat yang berbentuk 'network solution provider' seperti IBM dan Cisco meraih banyak untung kerana mereka membina dan menyokong sistem yang menyalurkan data.

Saya tidak berhasrat untuk memberi komen desas desus dana awam akan membeli saham Time dotCom. Tetapi jika sudah terdesak, ia terpaksa dilakukan untuk menyelamatkan bank penjamin dan masadepan syarikat milik proksi Umno.

-TJr Kapal Berita-

http://www.theedgedaily.com/article.cfm?id=2476

Source: the Sun or www.theedgedaily.com

KWAP, EPF, Danaharta take up unsubscribed Time dotCom shares?

By Sidek Kamiso

Kuala Lumpur: Kumpulan Wang Amanah Pencen (KWAP), the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Bhd are believed to have taken up the unsubscribed public portion of the Time dotCom Bhd initial public offering (IPO).

Time dotCom's initial stock sale of 571 million shares at RM3.30 each under its IPO was undersubscribed by 75% when applications closed on Feb 13. Only 142.86 million shares were subscribed.

An official familiar with the listing exercise said Time dotCom is believed to have submitted to the Registrar of Companies (ROC) the Form 29B, which contains details of the purchase of the two institutions and Danaharta.

The purchase by the three funds would allow Time dotCom to meet the listing requirement.

Under the KLSE listing requirement, a company with more than RM100 million in paid-up capital is required to have at least 1,250 shareholders and not less than 25% of the shares must be held by the public.

An announcement on the shareholders including the parties taking up the unsubscribed shares is expected this week.

The company will make its debut on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange today.

Time dotCom Shares Fall 27% in Kuala Lumpur Debut (Update3)

By T.H. Chan

Kuala Lumpur, March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Time dotCom Bhd. shares tumbled as much as 27 percent in their debut as a global slump in phone and Internet stocks weighed on Malaysia's biggest initial public offering in more than five years.

The manager of the nation's biggest fiber optics network traded at as low as 2.41 ringgit, below its IPO price of 3.30 ringgit. More than 6.8 million shares traded, making it the Kuala Lumpur exchange's most- active stock.

``The shares are really overvalued,'' said Raymond Tang, general manager at CMS-Dresdner Asset Management Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur, who gave the IPO a miss. ``It looks like it's Time dotGone.''

The poor debut, although expected, shows how valuations of telecommunications companies worldwide are being slashed as optimism about growth in the services they offer fades, making it difficult for them to raise money from the stock market.

The decline may also force several Malaysian companies from United Engineers Malaysia Bhd. to Prolink Development Bhd. to delay stock sales after the country's economy grew 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter, its slowest pace in about 18 months.

``We can't dictate and fight market forces,'' said Abu Talib Othman, chairman of Time dotCom, a unit of Time Engineering Bhd.

Investors bought only a quarter of shares offered by Time dotCom, making the response the worst of any IPO in the country. That left underwriters, led by Commerce International Merchant Bankers Bhd., with unsold shares valued at about 1.6 billion ringgit. Any drop in Time dotCom's shares may be capped by underwriters holding on to those shares, analysts said. Time raised 1.89 billion ringgit ($497 million) from the sale.

KAF Research Sdn. said in a note to clients that Time dotCom shares are fairly valued at 1 ringgit each because of a slowing economy and intense competition. KAF's valuation of the stock is the lowest of any Malaysian brokerage. Some have put the stock's fair value at as high as 3.75 ringgit.

No Reason

Global ``telcos have come off, so there's no reason to pay for'' Time dotCom shares, said Chong Sui San, who helps manage 800 million ringgit ($211 million) at Malaysia British Assurance Bhd.

Time is part of the Renong Bhd. group of companies that have interests in hotels, construction, property development, banking, oil and gas and tolls. Much of the group's business, run by tycoon Halim Saad, were formerly owned by the United Malays Nasional Organization, the dominant political party.

Investors may have also shunned Time dotCom shares because of the group's record of not doing enough to protect minority shareholders, investors said.

Halim, for example, has sought to strength his hold on the group at the expense of minority shareholders. He proposed Renong's exchange of assets worth $1.43 billion for shares in its United Engineers (Malaysia) Bhd unit and other plans that raise his Renong stake to 69 percent from 16.5 percent. They raise Renong's UEM stake to 54 percent from 38 percent and dilute minority shareholders' stakes by a quarter.

``I have no respect for the group,'' said Chong.

Time's Abu Talib of Time dotCom dismissed allegations of the lack of corporate governance. ``Don't look at history, we have complied'' with the rules of corporate governance, he said.

Time DotCom

The Time dotCom sale, the largest since the government sold shares in Petronas Gas Bhd. in September 1995, came at a time when the economy is facing a further slowdown.

The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, a private think- tank, expects economic growth to fall to 5 percent this year, as exports to the U.S. dry up. Malaysia's economy expanded by 8.5 percent in 2000.

Time dotCom also faces increased competition in its home market. Time, one of the country's smallest mobile phone companies, competes with half a dozen others in Malaysia, a nation of 23 million.

The company, which manages a 2,200-mile fiber optics network across peninsular Malaysia, has lost money in the past three years. Its loss narrowed to 124.8 million ringgit in 1999, from 2.3 billion ringgit a year earlier. It estimates 2000 losses at about 2.6 million ringgit in 2000.

The company expects its profit to more than double to 376.4 million ringgit ($99 million), or 14.9 sen a share, in the year to Dec. 31, 2002, from 150.6 million ringgit, or 6 sen a share, this year, according to the share sale documents.

``We will endeavor to achieve'' the forecasts, said Abu Talib. With no debt, the company will be able to focus on boosting earnings, he said.

As part of its IPO requirements, Time dotCom has to get a foreign phone company as a shareholder. Malaysia's state investment arm Khazanah Nasional Bhd. is in talks to sell part of its 30 percent stake to a foreign telecommunication company, Abu Talib said. The company has a year to find a foreign partner.

Shares of Time Engineering, which owns 45 percent of Time dotCom, fell as much as 13 sen, or 6.5 percent, to 1.87 ringgit, its lowest level since Jan. 8. Renong shares fell as much as 4 sen, or 4.2 percent, to 91.5 sen, its fourth day of decline. It has fallen 8 percent in that period.

http://www.bizedge.com.my/article.cfm?id=2511

Oversupply of telco stocks dampens Time dotCom debut

By Sidek Kamiso, 9.40pm

The oversupply of telecommunication stocks globally could be the reason for the lower interest in Time dotCom Bhd when it made its debut on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange today, analysts say.

Time dotCom closed at RM2.43, an 87 sen discount to its offer price of RM3.30, with a total of 9.75 million shares done. It opened at RM2.50 this morning.

Analysts say, with too many telecommunication companies listed worldwide, international investors are simply spoilt for choice and they will only go for 'the most attractive or most reasonably priced stocks.'

They say, confidence in the industry has also been dented by recent developments such as the sale of Turkey's national telecommunications company and British Telecom's downsizing of its operations across the globe. (Turkey is included in the MSCI emerging markets index.)

'So when investors look at the telecommunications sector, Time dotCom's prospect does not figure in their portfolio,' says a dealer with a local brokerage, adding that some of the other telcos have better track records.

In terms of operational cost, she says Time dotCom's initial stock sale at RM3.30 a share is not the cheapest among local telcos. For example, she cites Technology Resources Industries Bhd, which trades at about RM2.45 and offers a much lower enterprise value (EV/S) per subscriber. EV/S is the cost to acquire a subscriber.

Given the stiff competition in the local telecommunication industry, analysts say Time dotCom may face an uphill task to meet its earnings target. For the year ending Dec 31, 2001, it has projected a net profit of RM150 million on a revenue of RM1.76 billion.

A sceptical market and the poor stock debut aside, investors still need time to digest all information at hand on Time dotCom.

Perhaps, the investing public should heed Time dotCom chairman Tan Sri Abu Talib Othman's statement today asking investors to wait and see considering the company is now debt free and ready to take on the market.

'What is most important is that we are already listed on the main board,' Abu Talib said, adding that the company now has the resources to upgrade its services.

http://asia.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/technology/ afp/article.html?s=asia/headlines/010312/technology/afp/ Telecoms_firm_Time_dotCom_down_sharply_on_IPO_price.html

Monday, March 12 6:52 PM SGT

Telecoms firm Time dotCom down sharply on IPO price

KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 (AFP) -

Malaysian telecoms firm Time dotCom made a dismal stock market debut Monday, further weakening sentiment about the local bourse.

Time dotCom closed the day at 2.43 ringgit (64 cents), down 26 percent from its initial price offer of 3.30 ringgit amid concerns over its over-optimistic earnings forecasts and high share valuation.

Analysts said the poor share price was within forecasts as most of the shares were in the hands of a small group of investors after the embarassing failure of its IPO last month.

But this still dampened sentiment amid a general lack of positive leads and helped push the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange composite index down 0.9 percent, they added.

Time dotCom, which manages the country's longest fibre-optic network, received applications for only a quarter of the 572 million shares offered in its IPO, leaving underwriters to stump up for most of the 1.87 billion ringgit targeted.

It is a unit of Time Engineering, which is 47 percent owned by debt-laden but politically well connected conglomerate Renong.

A senior analyst with a foreign brokerage said the listing came at a bad time amid weak sentiment, especially with the fallout from the collapse of the Internet and multimedia hype.

Its share price reflected a combination of factors, including an unreasonably high share valuation and investors' aversion to the Renong group, he told AFX-Asia, an AFP-owned financial news wire.

"Independent valuation of the shares is between 2.00-2.50 ringgit. Our fair value is 2.00 ringgit but we had expected it to trade at around 2.50 because there won't be much selling," he said.

"One of the main reasons why the subscription failed badly is because of (the Renong factor). On the whole, it was purely a sentiment thing."

TA Securities analyst Dennis Lee said the drop was "not surprising" and the stock was likely to trade at the current level. He said his fair value was 2.80 ringgit.

Lee said Time dotCom's profit estimates were too aggressive.

One analyst with a local brokerage said Time dotCom was banking on higher data traffic and broadband applications to boost demand.

But intense competition coupled with its relatively young network and subscriber base could undermine its ability to grab a market share large enough to justify projected earnings growth, he said.

He noted that Time dotCom's cellular network was currently the smallest among five players in terms of revenue and subscriber base, with a relatively poor network coverage.

Its forecast for market share of 26 percent by 2003 and 30 percent after 2006 was too optimistic compared with the industry's expected average growth rate of 7.3 percent over the next decade, he added.