MAHATHIR TIADA BILA RAKYAT BERSABUNG NYAWA

Mahathir kini menghadapi arus kebangkitan rakyat marhain. BN kalah di Lunas walaupun itu hampir bumi tumpah darah celup Mahathir, dan polis terpaksa dikerah bila beribu-ribu membanjiri Kubang Pasu menyaksikan sijil Umno yang semakin tidak laku.

Ada orang berkata jika ada 40 Mahathir dunia akan semakin menjadi baik. Tetapi Mahathir sendiri membalas kata-kata itu betapa "Kita akan bergaduh sepanjang masa". Umno sendiri sudah bercerai berai dibuatnya dan perlembagaan negara sudah dikoyakkannya. PAS yang dulunya bersama BN sudah diceraikan tetapi kini mahu dipinangnya semula. Tetapi tuduh-menuduh kepada PAS masih belum reda dan kini mahu mengugut (mengugurkan nama Islam dari parti PAS) dengan menggunakan istana.

Mahathir tidak muncul bila pergaduhan melibatkan nyawa berlaku di mana-mana. Ketika Memali dia berada di Cina dan sengaja tidak mahu pulang segera. Dan dia tidak pergi pun ke hospital melihat mangsa Kg Medan atau menjejakkan kaki di bumi yang ramai setinggan melayu dan india. Dia cuma muncul di Highland Towers dan tempat seperti itu sahaja. Mungkin sebab itulah dia dipanggil 'Firaun Baik' agaknya.

DUNIA LUAR SEMAKIN MENINGGALKAN KITA

Baik atau tidak dunia bukan diukur dengan tingginya bangunan mencecah angkasa sehingga boleh terjun dan bermain dari puncaknya. Tetapi lihatlah betapa kosongnya ruang yang disewa dibangunan itu yang dibina oleh orang asing sebenarnya. Menurut rakan saya yang berkerja di KLCC (bahagian hartanah) cuma 60% sahaja bangunan itu didudukki. Itupun ramai yang mungkin angkat kaki kerana Jepun dan A.S. kini dihantui oleh kemelesetan ekonomi. Dan syarikat besar kedua-dua negara ini tidak berkecuali dihempap kejatuhan yang amat ngeri. Banyak syarikat sahamnya turun berjuta-juta dalam cuma beberapa hari. Pada masa berita ini ditulis beberapa buah bank di Jepun sedang terkial-kial rebah menyembah bumi..... matawang yen sudah merosot begitu teruk sekali sehingga keadaan politik negara itu turut terikut rentak terkini.

Baru-baru ini syarikat penerbangan gergasi kedua Jepun, All Nippon Airways (ANA) tidak mahu lagi terbang ke KLIA. Sebelum itu Qantas, Lufthansa dan British Airways menjauhkan diri. Cuma tinggal 40 buah syarikat penerbangan dunia yang mahu mendarat di KLIA. (Rujuk KM2 3887). Cuba titip baik-baik perkara ini. Tidakkah ini melambangkan negara kita sudah tidak laku lagi di mata dunia? Bukan sahaja pelancung dan orang bisnes Eropah semakin tiada malah orang Jepun pun sudah kurang minat ke sini pula. Siri TAG MT 1 (Rujuk KM2 3618) menunjukkan pelancung sudah mula menukar selera ke Vietnam padahal disana tiada bangunan yang memecahkan rekod dunia. Pelabur pula semakin ramai ke Cina kerana di sana lebih terjamin keterbukaannya kepada WTO sehingga Amerika mengirim satu delegasi tukang pujuk ke sana. Di rantau ini cuma Singapura masih diterima dan yang lain sudah dipadamkan semuanya.

[Rujuk TAG MT 23: KM2 3685, FEER Perisikan: KM2 3901 dan AWSJ - PM Lee, SE Asia "Written Off" Except For Singapore - KM2 3713]

SEMUA DANA MENJADI MANGSA

Semua projek sentuhan Mahathir kini sudah meragam dan terpaksa diselamatkan. Dulu bank dan Petronas datang menghulur tangan dan sekarang dana awam simpanan hari tua kita pula telah digunakan. MAS dijangka rugi LEBIH 1 bilion tahun ini (rujuk rencana BTS yang dikepilkan). Ia berhutang 8 bilion sedangkan dana sahamnya cuma 2 bilion.

LRT pula akan diselamatkan melalui bon sebelum hujung April. Beberapa buah bank diarahkan untuk menganjakkan tempoh hutang lapuk (NPL). Saham time dotCom tak terlanggan 75% dan sedang menurun ketika ini. Jangan lupa KWSP dan KWAP semakin rugi berjuta-juta di atas kertas kerana tiada siapa yang waras mahu membeli saham ini. Dua dana awam ini dan Danaharta memilikki RM 1.8 bilion saham yang tidak laku ini sedangkan ada banyak lagi saham lain yang lebih selamat dan menguntungkan untuk dibeli. Begitu mudah mereka memperjudikan wang rakyat di hari tua asalkan Halim Saad dapat hidup. Time dotCom Halim Saad kini muncul bebas hutang dengan mudahnya sesudah beroleh wang yang diperlukannya.... Lantaklah apa nak jadi dengan orang yang akan tua dan pencen semua.

Sekarang saham berteknologi (seperti Unisem) pula sedang tenggelam ekoran eskpot semakin berkurang disebabkan kelembapan ekonomi Amerika. Indeks Dow Jones susut teruk sehingga mencatat kerugian mingguan paling teruk sejak 1989 bila saham IBM merudum. Alamat time dotCom menjadi time dot gone nampaknya...

Saham bank tempatan juga meragam dan gergasi Maybank atau Public Bank tidak ketinggalan susut nilai mereka kerana mereka memegang banyak kolateral pinjaman dalam bentuk saham.

BILAKAH KERANDA MAHATHIR AKAN TIBA?

Menurut Shahrir Samad, negara dihidapi oleh 'sindrom orang tua'. Pengundi tidak nampak sebarang perubahan pada sikap kerajaan dalam menangani masalah korupsi, kepentingan diri dan peka kepada kehendak rakyat. Jika tiada perubahan dilakukan menjelang pemilu 2004, beribu-ribu pengundi baru yang muda akan menamatkan riwayat hidup Umno mungkin buat selama-lamanya.

Mahathir sudah semakin tidak popular. Dia masih menang walaupun beberapa kali tergugat dari dalam Umno. Keranda beliau masih belum tiba walaupun beberapa kali ia datang menjelma. Tetapi rakyat menjadi semakin cerdik dalam semua peristiwa. Gelabahnya Mahathir dapat dibaca bila dia mengirimkan polis bukan sahaja di bandar tetapi di desa juga. Yang menariknya semua tempat yang dikirim itu begitu kuat Umnonya satu ketika dulu...... malah Kg Medan sendiri diwakili oleh Umno dengan undi kaum India.

Menurut Chandra Muzaffar, "Kita telah mengalami krisis politik selama 2 1/2 tahun, tetapi tidak seekor pun tikus terjun dari kapal yang sedang tenggelam itu. Tikus-tikus tersebut tahu kapal itu bakal tenggelam, tetapi mereka enggan meninggalkannya."

Rakyat sudah semakin marah tetapi masih memendam rasa kerana begitu sabar walaupun sudah dipijak terlalu lama. Mahathir boleh ketawa hari ini tapi tidak lama. Perasaan rakyat sudah berjangkit bukan sahaja di bandar malah di desa. Kita kini dilanda bahang ekonomi yang mengugat hidup rakyat yang berkerja di ladang (kerana harga minyak sawit meragam) dan di kilang (kerana syarikat Jepun dan A.S. kesakitan). Banyak negeri dimana ladang, kilang dan kawasan setinggan ini berada adalah kawasan Umno dan BN. Bersedialah Mahathir untuk tumbang kerana ini semua paku MAUT buat kerandamu yang pasti akan datang.

-TJr Kapal Berita-

RENCANA RUJUKKAN

http://asia.biz.yahoo.com/news/asian_markets/dowjones/article.html? s=asiafinance/news/010319/asian_markets/dowjones/ Malaysia_s_Mahathir_Keeps_Fighting__But_For_How_Long_.html

Monday, March 19 1:36 AM SGT

Malaysia's Mahathir Keeps Fighting, But For How Long?

KUALA LUMPUR (AP)--When 15 skydivers set a record on New Year's Eve by parachuting off the world's tallest buildings, the Petronas Twin Towers, they received medals from the man the nickel-plated spires have come to symbolize - Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad.

One parachutist, impressed with Mahathir's achievement in turning Malaysia from a rubber-dependent backwater into one of Asia's most modern nations, commented that the world would be a better place if there were 40 more Mahathirs to run it.

Maybe not, Mahathir replied: "We'd probably spend all our time fighting each other."

Since taking office in 1981, Malaysia's leader has developed a reputation for world-class pugnacity. He hasn't been shy about taking on all who got in his way, from uppity sultans to the International Monetary Fund to his now-jailed former protege, Anwar Ibrahim.

But some Malaysians, even within his own party, are wondering how much longer Mahathir, still a vigorous 75 but increasingly showing his age, can hang on to power and whether the stability he has brought in a volatile region will be risked if he insists on staying.

In recent months, the embattled opposition has increasingly landed telling blows, winning a key by-election and staging surprisingly well-attended rallies in Mahathir's home state, Kedah, in the northern rice bowl.

Many Malay Muslims, the dominant ethnic group and bedrock of Mahathir's United Malays National Organization, are deserting to an Islamic fundamentalist movement and to a party headed by Anwar's wife.

Efforts to bring the upstart groups into talks to restore Malay unity - where Mahathir's party has always called the shots in a race-based system - have failed. It could be an indication that politics have evolved beyond the ethnic passions that led to bloody riots in 1969 pitting Malays against the Chinese minority.

While Mahathir contends the 1997 Asian economic crisis that triggered the decline in his popularity is finished, with Malaysia posting 7% growth last year, the dizzying boom that characterized Southeast Asia in the mid-1990s has never really returned.

Buildings stand half finished. The national airline and a light-rail project recently had to be bailed out financially. An initial stock offering by a telecommunications company sold only a quarter of the shares available.

And many fear vital electronics exports will slide if the U.S. economy should fall into a slump.

The government has dusted off time-proven responses: It's trying to unite Malays by playing on old fears of Chinese economic dominance. It criticizes globalization while sending trade missions abroad to woo more investment. It's even accused foreign media of an anti-Malaysian plot, triggered by photos in a magazine that Mahathir thought made him look "like an idiot."

But none of that has struck home with the public, and sentiment is growing that the prime minister is losing his touch.

"The politics in this country is not the same as before," says P. Ramasamy, a political science lecturer at National University of Malaysia. "All these things that were taken for granted are being sort of questioned, ridiculed."

Shahrir Samad, a critical member of the governing party's supreme council, put it much more bluntly after the party lost a hard-fought state by-election in Mahathir's home state in November.

"This is the 'old man syndrome' of an old man sulking," Shahrir said at the time. "The voters did not see any changes in the government, which is perceived as full of corruption, self-serving and out of touch with the people."

Unless that changes by 2004, when parliamentary elections must be held and hundreds of thousands of young voters will cast ballots for the first time, the ruling party may be faced with losing power for the first time since independence from Britain in 1957.

The worst ethnic violence in decades erupted in poor townships on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur in early March as Malay Muslims clashed with ethnic Indians, resulting in six deaths.

Though the cause was attributed to a local dispute and showed no sign of spreading, the violence highlighted below-the-surface racial tensions between majority Malays and minority Chinese and Indians that define the country's politics.

In his long career, Mahathir has alternately played up frictions and portrayed his government as the only force that can keep them in check to build a peaceful and harmonious society.

Mahathir has promised to step down by 2004, but some feel his party needs to remake itself soon or keep losing popularity, leading the economy to stagnate and fueling the rise of Islamic fundamentalists.

The Pan-Malaysia Islamic Party is the largest component of a four-party opposition front, but has little in common with its partners other than a desire to defeat Mahathir. The party advocates an Islamic state, with separation of the sexes and bans on alcohol, but contends it would respect the rights of non-Muslims.

Speculation has arisen that Mahathir could be nudged out by his own party as early as April, after leaders of the party's factions are selected. The division leaders have launched party purges in the past.

But time and again over the years, the prime minister has proven wrong those who tried to write his political obituary

Most believe Mahathir will choose his own time and it won't be soon. Not even the opposition thinks mass protests will ignite to drive the government from office, as has happened in the Philippines and Indonesia.

Chandra Muzzaffar, deputy president of the opposition National Justice Party, notes Malaysia has neither the mass deprivation nor cracks in the elite that characterized the Indonesian and Philippine upheavals.

"We've had a political crisis for the past 2 1/2 years, but not a single rat has jumped off the sinking ship," Chandra says. "The rats know the ship is sinking, but they won't leave.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?T=finer99_auto.ht&s=AOrVisxSITWFsYXlz

Malaysian Stocks Fall for a 9th Day, Led by Maybank, Lenders

Mon, 19 Mar 2001, 12:10am EST

By J.S. Dhaliwall, Jane Lee and Adeline Lee

Kuala Lumpur, March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysian stocks fell for a ninth day, led by Malayan Banking Bhd. and other lenders as investors bet a slowing economy will slow demand for loans and make it harder to recover bad loans, hurting earnings.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell 4.27, or 0.6 percent, to 667.74. The broader KL Emas Index dropped 0.83, or 0.5 percent, to 153.89.

The following shares are active on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange.

Banks declined on concern a slowing economy will curb demand for new loans and force banks to set aside more money to cover a drop in the collateral value of pledged shares. Malayan Banking Bhd. (MAY MK ), the country's biggest bank, fell 10 sen, or 0.7 percent, to 13.50 ringgit. Public Bank Bhd. (PBK MK ) dropped 5 sen, or 1.7 percent, to 2.97 ringgit.

DRB-Hicom (M) Bhd. (DRB MK ), an automotive and property company, fell 1 sen, or 0.9 percent, to 1.04 ringgit. It denied a report it submitted plans to take part in the revival of the $2.4 billion Bakun dam project in the East Malaysian state of Sarawak.

Nexnews.com Bhd. (NEXN MK ) fell for an eighth day, losing 6 sen, or 3.4 percent, to 1.71 ringgit, after the former jewelry maker said it scrapped a plan to buy control of two media groups.

O.S.K Holdings Bhd. (OSK MK ), a brokerage, fell 7 sen, or 4.1 percent, to 1.62 ringgit, after it received approval from the Securities Commission to use 50 million ringgit ($13 million) from its rights issue for working capital instead of spending it on venture capital activities.

Sistem Televisyen Malaysia Bhd. (TV3 MK ) fell 2 sen, or 3.3 percent, to 58 sen. The country's largest non- government broadcaster, more commonly known as TV3, said it plans to sell 74.5 million units of First Malaysia Property Trust to Commerce Asset-Holding Bhd. for 46.6 million ringgit ($12.3 million) in cash. Commerce Asset said on Wednesday it offered to buy all the remaining units in First Malaysia Property Trust it does not already own.

Time dotCom Bhd. (TDC MK ) fell 7 sen, or 3.3 percent, to 2.05 ringgit, its sixth day of decline, as investors bet a slowing economy will dampen demand for its telecommunication services in the coming months. Three state agencies said they took over 1.4 billion ringgit in unsold shares of the telecommunications company.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?T=finer99_auto.ht&s=AOrVPsRWQTWFsYXlz

Mon, 19 Mar 2001, 12:12am EST

Malaysian Stocks Seen Falling for a 9th Day, Led by Public Bank

By J.S. Dhaliwall, Jane Lee and Adeline Lee

Kuala Lumpur, March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysian stocks may decline for a ninth day, led by Public Bank Bhd. and other lenders as investors bet a slowing economy will slow demand for loans and make it harder to recover bad loans, hurting earnings.

Investors fret Unisem Bhd. and other chipmakers in Malaysia may see shrinking demand for their components as the U.S. economy slows. That concern was heightened by a decline in shares of International Business Machines Corp., which helped push the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its biggest weekly loss since 1989.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index on Friday fell 3.85, or 0.6 percent, to 672.01, its lowest since Jan. 5. For the week, the index dropped 3.3 percent. The index has fallen 28 percent in the past 12 months. The broader KL Emas Index dropped 0.62, or 0.4 percent, to 154.72.

The following shares may be active on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Share prices are from Friday's close unless otherwise noted.

Banks may decline on concern a slowing economy will hurt profit as demand for new loans fall and banks set aside more money to cover a drop in the collateral value of pledged shares. Commerce Asset-Holding Bhd. (CAHB MK ) lost 5 sen, or 0.7 percent, to 7 ringgit. RHB Capital Bhd. (RHBC MK ) fell 7 sen, or 2.9 percent, to 2.33 ringgit. AMMB Holdings Bhd. (AMM MK ) lost 4 sen, or 1.3 percent, to 3.10 ringgit. Public Bank Bhd. (PBK MK ) dropped 22 sen, or 6.8 percent, to 3.02 ringgit.

DRB-Hicom (M) Bhd. (DRB MK ), an automotive and property company, may be active after it denied a report it submitted plans to take part in the revival of the $2.4 billion Bakun dam project in the East Malaysian state of Sarawak. DRB- Hicom fell 2 sen, or 1.9 percent, to 1.05 ringgit.

KFC Holdings Bhd. (KFC MK ) may be active. The owner of the biggest fast-food chain in Malaysia said it's in talks with Kentucky Fried Chicken International Holdings Inc. to revise some of the terms of its franchise agreement, including the change in substantial ownership of KFC Holdings. KFC was unchanged at 4.22 ringgit.

Malaysian Airline System Bhd. (MAS MK ) may be active after the national airline said it will reorganize debt, trim costs and seek global alliances in its bid to return to profit within two years. Malaysian Airline rose 6 sen, or 1.8 percent, to 3.48 ringgit.

Nexnews.com Bhd. (NEXN MK ) may be active. The stock fell 49 sen, or 22 percent, to 1.77 ringgit, its seventh day of decline. It has lost 41 percent over the last two days after scrapping a plan to buy control of two media groups.

O.S.K Holdings Bhd. (OSK MK ), a brokerage, may be active after it received approval from the Securities Commission to use 50 million ringgit ($13 million) from its rights issue for working capital instead of spending it on venture capital activities. O.S.K was unchanged at 1.69 ringgit.

Lingual Developments Bhd. (LING MK ) may be active after the Securities Commission approved the timber company's plans to sell 300 million ringgit of bonds to refinance existing bank loans. Lingual was unchanged at 1.04 ringgit.

Road Builder (M) Holdings Bhd. (RBH MK ) may be active after saying it won a $97.4 million road works project in the Indian state of West Bengal. Road Builder gained 1 sen, or 0.4 percent, to 2.64 ringgit.

Sistem Televisyen Malaysia Bhd. (TV3 MK ) may be active. The country's largest non-government broadcaster, more commonly known as TV3, said it plans to sell 74.5 million units of First Malaysia Property Trust to Commerce Asset-Holding Bhd. for 46.6 million ringgit ($12.3 million) in cash. Commerce Asset said on Wednesday it offered to buy all the remaining units in First Malaysia Property Trust it does not already own. TV3 rose 1.5 sen, or 2.6 percent, to 60 sen.

Tenaga Nasional Bhd. (TNB MK ) may be active. The largest Southeast Asian power producer said it started to offer to buy back its $300 million debt which will mature on April 29, 2007 and its $600 million debt which will mature on June 15, 2004. Tenaga shares rose 10 sen, or 0.8 percent, to 12.30 ringgit.

Time dotCom Bhd. (TDC MK ) may be active as investors bet a slowing economy will dampen demand for its telecommunication services in the coming months. Time dotCom fell for a fifth day, losing 5 sen, or 2.3 percent, to 2.12 ringgit. Three state agencies said they took over 1.4 billion ringgit in unsold shares of the telecommunications company.

From The Business Times, Singapore
17th March 2001

MAS' new MD sets two-year target to woo foreign partners

But, for current FY, he warns of 'lousy numbers'

THE new management of Malaysian Airline System (MAS) has vowed to turn the ailing carrier around within two years in order to make it more attractive to a foreign equity partner.

"We must repackage ourselves to look attractive again before we can sell ourselves to a foreign partner," managing director Md Nor Yusof told the local media.

He added: "However, we will have to assess the terms and impact on MAS and whether it serves our interests." Mr Md Nor, who was appointed by the government last month following its controversial buyback of a stake from Tajudin Ramli, said the main task is to turn the debt-laden carrier around within two years.

It will not be easy. Mr Md Nor said the national carrier is set to announce "lousy numbers" for the current financial year ending March 31.

He will reorganise debts and reduce costs, but the plan to return to the black also hinges on the global economic climate and jet fuel price -- its main cost component.

Analysts said MAS is expected to post its biggest loss this year of more than RM1 billion (S$465 million) following two earlier years of losses totalling nearly RM1 billion.

However, the newspaper reports yesterday did not touch on why the government paid a hefty premium for the 29.09 per cent stake held by Naluri, controlled by Mr Tajudin.

Critics are still fuming over the Finance Ministry paying RM8 per share for the stake. The price enabled Mr Tajudin to recoup almost all his cost of RM8.70 per share in the privatisation of MAS in 1995.

But the purchase price represented a 91.2 per cent premium to its net tangible assets. And it was at a premium of 117 per cent to its market price of RM3.68 last December. Mr Tajudin had also disclosed that no independent valuation was carried out in the deal.

Mr Md Nor admitted that the balance sheet of MAS is "very fragile" and carries a disproportionately large debt, resulting in high charges against its cash flow.

As at last December, MAS has loans exceeding RM8 billion against shareholders' funds of just over RM2 billion. The airline is also mulling over the possibility of trimming its 21,000-odd workforce, and separating the profitable international routes from the loss-making domestic services.

But Mr Md Nor paid tribute to Mr Tajudin for the carrier's fleet expansion in 1995.

"Credit should go to them. The fleet expansion was a bold move. If they did not do that, MAS would not have gained the strong footing it has today," he said.

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg