Perangkaan Jabatan Statistik menyerlahkan pengeluaran kilang sudah pun merosot. Peniaga Cina dan FMM cukup bimbang dan telah mengemukakan beberapa cadangan agar nilai ringgit diubah supaya mereka dapat terus hidup. Tetapi Daim dan Mahathir tetap berkeras kerana bimbang pecah tembelang menjelang perhimpunan agung Umno yang akan datang. Soalnya dapatkah mereka berdua bertahan kerana takungan impot cuma sekitar 4 bulan.

CADANGAN MERUBAH NILAI RINGGIT

Para peniaga Cina dan FMM menyeru kerajaan menilai semula ringgit mengikut beberapa cadangan:

Cadangan Peniaga Cina:

Mewujudkan kadar yang terapung yang ditetapkan mengikut corak pasaran supaya kilang mereka dapat terus bersaing.

Cadangan FMM Pulau Pinang:

Kadar tukaran yang fleksibel dimana bank negara akan menetapkan ringgit pada awal setiap bulan dan tidak akan membenarkan ia naik atau turun lebih 2% dari kadar ditetapkan itu. Sistem seperti ini pernah digunakan di Poland dan beberapa negara sedang membangun.

Daim memberi alasan negara Cina tidakpun menukar kadar nilai matawangnya tetapi dia tidak sedar Cina tidak terlalu bergantung kepada ekspot kerana permintaan domestiknya tinggi dan kurang tergugat jika nilai matawangnya tinggi.

Lapuran AFP telah menyebut beribu-ribu akan kehilangan kerja kerana kemelsetan ini tetapi itu tidak diendahkan kerana mahu menjaga ego Mahathir dan memudahkan kroni membayar hutang luar negara. Lagipun ia lambang tewasnya wawasan degil Mahathir dihimpit arus dunia. Ini cukup bahaya kerana perwakilan perhimpunan agung Umno nanti bakal membidas atau menyindirnya.

KILANG SUDAH MENJADI MANGSA

Lapuran Bloomberg menyebut pengeluaran kilang sudah merosot sebanyak 4.3% bulan Februari lalu kerana tergugat oleh kelembapan ekonomi Amerika dan nilai ringgit yang tidak kompetetif.

Nilai yen telah merosot 7.56% tahun ini sehingga menekan dan mengheret matawang serantau yang memang lemah akibat pertumbuhan yang perlahan. Baht Thai jatuh 4.65% tahun ini dan dolar Singapura pula susut 4.33%. Kesannya ringgit lebih tinggi sehingga barangan ekspot keluaran Malaysia lebih mahal.

Statistik penting:

1. 60% ekspot Malaysia adalah barangan elektrik dan elektronik.
2. 1/5 ekspot menuju ke Amerika
   
3. 1/3 ekspot menuju ke Singapura dan Jepun
4. Nilai matawang Jepun merosot 7.56% dan Singapura merosot 4.65%
5. Sektor perkilangan adalah 2/3 industri negara

DEGIL MAHATHIR MERAGUT MANGSA

Ramai mungkin bertanya kenapa kita berbicara tentang nilai ringgit dalam dunia reformasi. Jawapannya mudah sahaja - jika ringgit dinilai semula akan jatuhlah maruah Mahathir di mata dunia antarabangsa. Dia mahu mengajar dunia - tetapi dunia juga akan mengajarnya nanti bila sudah terdesak dan tersedak. Mahathir masih berdegil untuk mengalah walaupun industri perkilangan menyumbang nyawa penting untuk negara. Ramai akan sengsara dibuang kerja atau rugi berjuta-juta kerana egonya - dan mereka ini pengundi belaka dan hidup di kawasan yang kuat BNnya. Malangnya Mahathir lupa itu semua. Dia sepatutnya telah membaca protes dan harapan pelabur sehingga menjunam indeks BSKL jadinya walaupun dia baru sahaja membentangkan rancangan ekonominya.

-TJr Kapal Berita-

04/06 04:32

Malaysia Feb. Factory Production Growth Falls to 4.3% (Update2)

By David Yong

Kuala Lumpur, April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia's industrial production expanded at its slowest pace in nearly two years in February as manufacturers scaled back in the face of slowing overseas orders for electronics and other goods.

Overall production increased by 4.3 percent from a year earlier, the Department of Statistics said. February's increase is the smallest since April 1999, when the country emerged from its worst recession. In January, industrial production rose a revised 11.1 percent from a year earlier.

Manufacturing, which makes up two-thirds of industry, also posted a 4.3 percent gain in February from a year earlier. Much of Malaysian industry is geared toward supplying the market for electronics and electrical goods, which is slowing down in the U.S. and elsewhere.

``The market was booming last year and it has clearly cooled off,'' said David Cohen, an economist at Standard & Poor's MMS. ``In countries like Singapore and Malaysia, where manufacturing is concentrated in electronics, (the slowdown) is clearly being felt.''

Malaysia could be in for tougher times as world economic growth slows. Malaysia recently reduced its growth target for 2001 to between 5 percent and 6 percent from a previous forecast of 7 percent, citing faltering demand for its semiconductors and electrical appliances from the U.S. and Japan.

Weaker Exports

Exports have been cooling as companies like semiconductor makers Malaysian Pacific Industries Bhd. and Unisem Bhd. posted slower sales growth. They sell to U.S. customers like Motorola Inc., Linear Technology Corp. and Micrel Inc. Nearly 60 percent of Malaysia's exports consist of electronics and electrical goods.

``As fears of a slowdown feed on, I think there could be a sharper adjustment to the downturn in the next two months,'' said Banny Lam, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Hong Kong.

Exports are slowing across Asia. Singapore's non-oil exports rose 5.5 percent in February from a year earlier, down from a 9 percent gain in January, as a result of weak electronics shipments.

Malaysia shipped one-fifth of its exports to the U.S. last year and another one-third to Japan and Singapore.

Among other segments of industry, electricity generation rose 5.5 percent from a year earlier, while mining rose 3.7 percent.

Compared with January, total production shrank 2.5 percent. Manufacturing fell 1.5 percent from a month earlier, mining fell 7.6 percent and electricity dropped 2.1 percent.

The health of Malaysian industry will remain closely linked to economic conditions in the U.S., which some economists say will improve in the second half of the year as inventories are reduced.

``Malaysia's industrial performance is likely to improve later in the year,'' said Rajeev Malik, an economist at J.P. Morgan Chase in Singapore. ``However, from now till then, Malaysia too has to suffer due to the gloomy global growth outlook.''

Saturday, April 7 12:10 PM SGT

Malaysia's Daim Says Ringgit Won't Be Repegged - Official

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Malaysia has no intention of altering the ringgit's peg to the dollar ($1=MYR3.80) and the country will remain competitive with this exchange rate, Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin told finance ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Saturday, a Malaysian official who declined to be identified said. The ringgit peg will remain in place based on the country's fundamentals and to ensure certainty and predictability, Daim said, according to the official.

Malaysia is confident its exports will remain competitive, Daim added. Daim pointed to China, which hasn't revalued its currency, despite the fact that many currencies in the region have weakened against the dollar.

Aggregate trade accounts for more than 80% of gross domestic product in most Asian countries. More than 50% of Malaysian exports are comprised of electrical and electronic goods, and manufacturers are feeling the pinch of slowing global demand.

On Friday, the statistics department said industrial production growth slowed to 4.3% in February on year, from 12.5% in January and 15.1% in December.

In its Saturday edition, the daily New Straits Times reports the Penang branch of the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers is proposing a flexible exchange rate. Under the proposal, the central bank would fix the peg at the beginning of each month, and not permit the currency to rise or fall by more than 2% versus the fixed rate, according to the report.

This proposal follows one by the Malaysian Chinese business association which asked the government to adopt a floating exchange rate within predetermined trading bands.

Both Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz have reiterated over the past two weeks that there is no need to alter the ringgit peg at present.

Daim is meeting with his ASEAN counterparts as part of a weekend meeting, where participants are discussing ways to combat the effects of slowing U.S. economic growth. The U.S. is Malaysia's largest single trading partner.

Malaysia Defends Ringgit Peg; Industry Leader Urges Flexibility

By Yoolim Lee and Christopher Wellisz

Kuala Lumpur, April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia's finance minister said the country will keep its currency peg, brushing aside calls by an industry leader to adopt a more flexible system to boost flagging exports.

``For the sake of predictability and certainty, the peg will remain,'' Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin told counterparts from other Southeast Asian nations meeting in Kuala Lumpur, according to a spokesman. ``We are confident we will remain competitive even at this rate.''

A leader of the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers has urged the government to introduce a more flexible exchange-rate system, the New Straits Times reported today. The ringgit has been pegged at 3.8 to the dollar since late 1998.

The ringgit peg is hurting the ability of Malaysian exporters to sell their goods abroad at a time when cooling growth in the U.S. is curbing demand for Asia's electronics and other exports.

A declining yen has added to the region's woes. The yen has dropped 7.56 percent this year, pressuring other currencies already weakened by slowing economic growth. The Thai baht has fallen 4.65 percent this year, and the Singapore dollar has shed 4.33 percent. As a result, the ringgit has grown relatively strong, making Malaysian exports more expensive.

``There is a need for a flexible exchange rate to reflect the changing economic fundamentals,'' the New Straits Times quoted the chairman of northern region of the 2,000-member Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers, O.K. Lee, as saying. The northern region includes Penang, the center of Malaysia's electronics industry.

More Flexibility

The 33-year-old industry federation urged the central bank to adjust the ringgit peg once a month and allow the currency to move within a narrow range of the peg. Such ``managed floats'' have been used in Poland and other emerging markets.

Malaysia is hosting a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose finance ministers are discussing the regional economic slowdown and the effect of the declining yen on other Asian currencies.

Malaysian officials have repeatedly said they won't abandon the peg, saying the stability it offers is good for business. Economists, however, say the peg will come under increasing pressure as other regional currencies lose value against the dollar and Malaysian growth slows.