MIER: EKONOMI MEROSOT, SUNTIKAN TAKKAN MEMBANTU

Menurut MIER, ekonomi Malaysia akan terus merosot secara dramatik pada suku pertama tahun ini. Pakej rangsangan dijangka tidak mampu memberi kesan hinggalah ke tahun depan.

Pengguna juga tidak yaqin berbelanja walaupun kadar faedah adalah terendah di rantau ini. Mengurangkannya lagi tidak akan memberi kesan sangat untuk meningkatkan perbelanjaan.

Menurut Ariff, pengarah eksekutif MIER, kadar pertumbuhan pada suku pertama tahun ini dijangka 'teramat-amat rendah' tetapi tidak dapat dihebahkan angkanya. Hasil kajian MIER mendapati angka petunjuk keyakinan bisnes dan pengguna telah merosot agak teruk.

"Memang nyata suasana perniagaan sudah buruk membusuk", kata Ariff.

Pesanan ekspot dan jualan ekspot amat lemah sekali dan pengeluaran seta penjualan 'turut berprestasi pilu'. Inventori pula semakin bertambah dan harga tidak berganjak kerana tiada sesiapa yang sanggup menerlah risiko.

MIER memberi amaran sistem kawalan matawang kini telah menggugat rezab antarabangsa Malaysia. Ia mencadangkan kerajaan mengawal pelaburan ke luar negara oleh rakyat negara ini. (Kadar faedah yang lebih tinggi menyebabkan orang kaya umno sendiri menyimpan wang mereka di luar negara - Penterjemah)

PENGGUNA BERHATI-HATI

Pengguna pula lebih berhati-hati mengetatkan poket masing-masing dari berbelanja. Terdapat kebimbangan menghadapi masalah kewangan di masa hadapan menyebabkan mereka tidak berbelanja.

Ariff menyokong ringgit dinilai semula tetapi keadaan masakini agak berbahaya untuk kerajaan melaksanakannya kerana matawang tidak stabil dan ekonomi yang melemah.

"Kita seharusnya keluar dari kemelut kawalan ini secepat mungkin Adalah mudah untuk masuk ke dalam sistem kawalan ini tetapi amat sukar untuk keluar. Sekarang masanya tidak sesuai untuk cabut. Kita sepatutnya melakukannya lebih awal ketika keadaan begitu stabil satu ketika dulu lagi.... sekarang kita sudahpun ketinggalan perahu itu", kata Ariff.

-Tara Patel-

KOMEN

Kita ketinggalan perahu itu kerana kroni perlu diselamatkan dulu selepas pemilu. Banyak yang sudah ditolong tahun lalu seperti Halim Saad (banyak sangat perlu ditolong dan belum cukup lagi), Vincent Tan dan Tajuddin Ramli dll. Tetapi tahun ini saham time dotCom tidak laku. Mulalah kroni tergaru-garu kerana menyangka mudah menggunakan saham untuk melangsaikan hutang dan tidak ramai yang akan menentang. Sekarang MTUC sudah memberi amaran untuk berpiket besar-besaran di seluruh negara Mei nanti.

Tidak lama lagi kita menjangkakan mereka akan membikin 'bom jangka' melalui bon pula. Jangan lupa hujung April ini ada satu pakej untuk menyelamatkan LRT. Lagipun tambangnya sudah pun naik baru-baru ini.

Bom jangka akan meletup jika tiada wangnya. Yang akan menderita bukan orang lain - tetapi kita rakyat Malaysia yang bertungkus lumus bekerja. Para kroni apa perduli kerana mereka boleh lari meninggalkan negara untuk bersuka-ria. Tinggallah kita menggigit jari dalam sengsara dengan sejuta muram di air muka. Tapi itu sudahpun tidak berguna..... kerana kita terlalu berdiam dan tidak muncul di perhimpunan menyelamatkan negara di jalanraya dan di lebuhraya. Kita telah lali di saat negara memerlukan kita padahal kita sendiri bakal menerima sendiri segala buruk dan padahnya.

-TJr Kapal Berita-

Rencana Asal:

Tuesday, April 17 5:52 PM SGT

WRAP: Malaysia Econ Slows, Pump-Prime Won't Help- MIER

By Tara Patel

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--The Malaysian economy is expected to have slowed dramatically in the first quarter of 2001, when business confidence slumped to recession levels, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research said Tuesday.

Cutting its 2001 growth forecast to 4.0% from 5.0%, the think-tank said a 3-billion-ringgit ($1=MYR3.80) spending package announced last month by the government to pump prime the economy won't help.

"We do not believe the stimulus package will have an impact this year but may be next year," Mohamed Ariff Abdul Kareem, executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, said at a news conference.

In fact, he said, the government and central bank's policy options to ward off a major slowdown are limited.

"The scope of monetary and fiscal policy is very limited. The government has to sit back and accept slower growth," he said. "Four percent growth is low. In fact, I would describe it as a mild recession."

There is still room for the central bank to cut interest rates, he added, but Malaysia's are already the lowest in the region and in light of fragile consumer confidence, a further cut probably wouldn't lift spending.

Central Bank Growth Forecast "Off The Mark"

Bank Negara Malaysia forecast 2001 growth at between 5.0% and 6.0%, which Mustapa Mohamed, advisor to the Malaysia's National Economic Action Council, Tuesday called "achievable."

In contrast, Ariff said the estimate is definitely "off the mark" due to a slower-than-anticipated U.S. economy and Malaysia's dependence on exports.

First half growth will likely be under 4.0%, with the brunt of the slowdown being felt in the first quarter. First quarter growth will likely be "very, very low," he said, but declined to give a precise figure.

MIER's lower growth estimate reflects the findings of first quarter business and consumer confidence surveys, which both dropped substantially.

The Business Conditions Index for the first quarter dropped to 46.3 points, down from 53.2 points in the October-to-December quarter and 60.7 points in the same quarter last year.

"Falling below the demarcation level of 50 points, the latest reading portends a recessionary, albeit mild, economic situation," MIER said, warning of a further slowdown in coming months further choking confidence.

"Clearly business conditions have deteriorated," Mohamed Ariff said.

The index was below 50 points in 1998 when Malaysia was hit by the Asian financial crisis and growth contracted 7.4%.

Weakness is greatest for expected export orders and export sales, the survey found, but sales, production and expected second quarter production "also performed dismally."

Sectors surveyed reported expectations of lower capacity utilization, higher inventory and stagnant prices in the first quarter, MIER said.

Consumers Grow Cautious

The findings of the think-tank's first quarter consumer sentiments survey were equally gloomy as Malaysians began to worry about job prospects.

MIER's Consumer Sentiment Index was 105.7 points in the first quarter, down substantially from 120.70 points in the same quarter last year, and below the fourth quarter's 115.6 points.

The index is still above 100, however, the threshold below which it fell in 1998.

The economic think-tank said weaker labor markets are beginning to weigh on Malaysian consumers' minds, and they are increasingly worried their finances will worsen in the short term. "At the moment consumers are tightening their purse strings and this will provide an additional squeeze on the economy," Mohamed Ariff said.

The think-tank sounded a note of caution on the country's currency peg and level of foreign reserves, which have been steadily eroding. Mohamed Ariff suggested the government limit and control the amounts Malaysians are investing overseas to stem the decline in international reserves.

The ringgit, fixed at 3.80 to the dollar, is "slightly overvalued", MIER said, and may be hurting export competitiveness.

Mohamed Ariff Tuesday joined the ranks of some business leaders in calling for the ringgit to be un-pegged in light of weaker currencies of Malaysia's exporting neighbors.

Speculation was rife in the market earlier this month that Malaysia would devalue its currency to improve export competitiveness, talk the central bank and government have dismissed.

Ariff said the move shouldn't come now due to weak economic conditions and instability on currency markets, but should be addressed soon.

"We should get out as quickly as we possibly can." Ariff said of the fixed currency regime.

"It is easy to get into a pegged system but it is hard to get out," he added. "This is not the time to get out. We should have done it earlier when the times were good...we missed the boat."

http://www.theage.com.au/news/2001/04/18/FFXBLK8JMLC.html

Mahathir fears violent uprising

By MARK BAKER
ASIA EDITOR
SINGAPORE
Wednesday 18 April 2001

The Malaysian Government has stepped up its attack on the country's democracy movement by accusing the opposition of receiving support from Indonesia in preparation for a campaign of violent protests aimed at toppling the government.

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said police had evidence that some of the seven opposition leaders arrested last week under the infamous Internal Security Act had contacted radical activists in Jakarta.

"They (the police) know that these people had gone to another country to seek help in organising a much more violent kind of demonstration, but I think the police nipped them in the bud by taking the culprits earlier," he said after a meeting of the supreme council of his ruling United Malays National Organisation.

Other government leaders earlier claimed the opposition had sought weapons and explosives for use during street protests and had made plans to bring sympathisers from Indonesia to join their campaign.

About 5000 opposition supporters led by Wan Azizah, the wife of jailed former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, rallied peacefully in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday to protest at the crackdown on free speech and assembly and tightening controls on the media.

Organisers of the protest believe the turnout was much lower than expected due to the threats of further arrests and a show of force by police.

The comments by Dr Mahathir are his first public acknowledgement of fears within the leadership that the wave of anti-government sentiment triggered by the jailing of Mr Anwar could develop into the kind of mass uprising that presaged the fall of the Suharto regime in Indonesia.

Despite police failure to produce any evidence of planned violence, the opposition leaders are still being held and denied access to lawyers.

The use of the Internal Security Act, which allows detention without charge for a minimum of 60 days, has drawn international and domestic criticism, including from Malaysia's government-appointed Human Rights Commission.

But Dr Mahathir defended the use of the act and foreshadowed a toughening of laws regulating the media. He said only a small minority were opposed to the use of the act and it would only be reviewed when Malaysians understood the "true meaning" of democracy.

"Once the people understand democracy, which means that violence is not used to overthrow the government, we can think of revising the law," he said.

In a move apparently targeted at foreign magazines and newspapers, Dr Mahathir said the government would review the Printing Presses and Publications Act, which prohibits the publication of "malicious news" and allows authorities to ban the circulation of publications.

"The act may not be very effective. We'll find ways to restore its relevancy," he said. "We don't want to be like the press in other countries, the so-called liberal countries, who tell lies, fabricate stories, provoke people and don't give a fair picture."