MAHATHIR TERJERUT OLEH PAKU KAWALAN MATAWANGNYA SENDIRI

Ringgit Malaysia kelihatan terlebih nilai dan rizab negara pula sedang terumbang-ambing. Apakah Perdana Menterinya akan datang merangkak dan menilai semula?

Perdana Menteri Malaysia Mahathir Mohamad begitu jarang terputus kata untuk menyerang sebarang ancaman terhadap matawang negaranya. Malah beliau begitu terkenal dengan pandangan luarbiasanya yang berani terhadap perkara seperti itu. Pada bulan April 1998 misalnya, dalam satu temuramah dengan BusinessWeek, beliau telah menuduh 'Konspirasi Yahudi" sebagai dalang yang menekan ringgit. Tetapi bila bank pusat Malaysia (Bank Negara) mengumumkan pada 16 April lepas bahawa rezab antarabangsa negara telah susut sebanyak 9% (atau $2.7 bilion) dalam 3 bulan pertama tahun 2001, Mahathir tampak ketara 'terlalu bijaksana' sehingga punah ranah jadinya.

Kejatuhan rizab negara itu adalah tanda sial lagi celaka kerana Mahathir mengarahkan matawang ringgit dikekalkan pada paras 3.8 untuk setiap dolar pada November 1998 sebagai sebahagian dari rancangan pengawalan modal. Ringgit dianggap sudah terlebih nilai kini. Namun demikian beliau masih membebel tidak menentu kepada akhbar tempatan keesukkan harinya: "Ringgit tidak terlebih nilai pun. Kita masih mampu bersaing." Ini adalah kerana masa adalah musuh yang bergerak dari dalam.

MENCEMEK HIDUNG MASING-MASING

Rezab antarabangsa Bank Negara sedang meruap kerana pengeluar DALAM NEGARA SENDIRI - kebanyakkannya dalam sektor elektronik - sedang memegang secara HARAM berbilion-bilion dolar hasil ekspot mereka di pesisiran luar negara. Mereka mencemek hidung kerapa peraturan yang sukar dikuatkuasakan yang memerlukan mereka membawa semula hasil ekspot mereka dalam jangkamasa 6 bulan dan menukar semua wang itu dalam bentuk ringgit.

Apa sebabnya? Terdapat tanggapan Bank Negara tidak akan mampu mengekalkan kawalan matawang itu lagi. "Terdapat spekulasi dalam beberapa minggu terdekat ini petanda ringgit akan dinilai semula atau ditukar kadarnya. Ini menyebabkan orang menukar kepada matawang lain," rumus Jomo Sundaram, profesor ekonomi di Universiti Malaya Kuala Lumpur. "Kita bukan hanya bercakap mengenai orang asing sahaja. Kita juga bercakap mengenai pengekspot (tempatan) sendiri yang tidak mahu membawa wang mereka kembali memasukki negara".

Kesan krisis pasaran 1998 menyebabkan Mahathir mengenakan kawalan modal - termasuk kawalan matawang. Ia mendapat pujian mengharum kerana ia memagari ekonomi Malaysia daripada penghijrahan modal dan kejatuhan matawang yang menghempap ekonomi Asian. Memanglah kerana pelabur dan pengimpot merasa ringgit ketika itu agak murah - kira-kira 20% dibawah nilai. Tetapi beberapa bulan kebelakangan ini senario sudah pun banyak berubah.

Pengekspot Malaysia kini menganggap kawalan ringgit satu liabiliti. Awal tahun ini, Persekutuan Pengeluar-Pengilang Malaysia (FMM - Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers) telah mengeluarkan satu kenyataan awam agar ringgit dinilai semula memandangkan kelemahan matawang serantau. Ini adalah kerana sumber nyawa Asia - ekspot kepada Amerika - sudahpun kering kontang. "Pengekspot sudahpun putus harapan," ujar seorang penasihat pelaburan luar di Kuala Lumpur.

Para pegawai bank di Singapura menjelaskan syarikat Malaysia sendiri menyimpan dana mereka di dalam bank di pulau itu dan di negara lain di mana mereka melakukan perniagaan - asalkan bukan Malaysia. Kesannya, ia semakin menekan kerajaan. Pada 5hb April lepas, Standard & Poor telah merendahkan lagi angka petunjuk matawang Malaysia daripada 'positif' kepada 'stabil' dengan alasan 'bertambahnya tekanan politik dan ekonomi..... yang mungkin menghakis kedudukkan kewangan kerajaan'. Pada 15hb April pula, MIER pula telah menurunkan ramalan kadar pertumbuhan KDNK tahun ini kepada 4% dari 5% kerana pakej rangsangan kerajaan itu dijangka lambat memberi kesan.

Para pengeluar dan pengilang mempunyai kepentingan di kedua-dua belah pagar - tetapi mereka lebih condong kepada penilaian semula, walau apapun terjadi. Walaupun ia akan mencederakan pegangan ringgit mereka, ia dapat diimabangi dengan pelonjakkan ekspot. Walau apa-pun kemungkinannya, mereka menyimpan hasil mereka dalam bentuk dolar, kerana itu akan lebih memungkinkan penilaian semula ringgit.

"Jika gejala ini tidak dihentikan, corak penurunan rezab antarabangsa itu akan menyukarkan bank negara untuk bertahan lama dan mengekalkan kawalan matawang itu," satu kata-kata amaran dari seorang ahli ekonomi di Singapura yang tidak ingin di sebutkan namanya.

PENAFIAN PENILAIAN SEMULA

Kerajaan tercungap-cungap cuba menyakinkan para pengilang dan pelabur betapa semuanya masih terkawal lagi. Dalam satu temuduga di TV3 pada 14hb April, Gabenor Bank Negara, Zeti Akhtar Aziz menafikan kerajaan sedang meneliti kemngkinan penilaian itu.

"Jika anda melihat pada konteks keadaan semasa, ia tidak akan menguntungkan negara jika matawang dikurangkan nilainya".

Pada 14hb April satu kenyataan oleh agensi kerajaan, NEAC (National Economic Action Council) yang bertanggungjawab kepada Menteri Kewangan, Daim Zainuddin, telah mengkritik keputusan S&P untuk merendahkan angka petunjuk matawang Malaysia itu kerana 'tidak bersandarkan data-data ekonomi'.

Tetapi jaminan kerajaan itu tidakpun menyakinkan masyarakat peniaga. Pelabur Malaysia yang kebanyakkannya berlegar di BSKL berhati-hati dan lebih condong kepada kemungkinan penilaian semula itu. Ini menyebabkan indeks komposit BSKL menjunam 23% sejak 1hb Februari, catat Chew Ping, seorang analis di S&P.

Penilaian semula akan meremukkan muka politik Dr Mahathir yang berikrar untuk mengekalkan kadar ringgit sehingga dunia mengenakan satu kawalan untuk mengetatkan perniagaan matawang. "Beliau menconteng dirinya sedikit ke tepi sudut" kata Bruce Gale, seorang analis politik bebas yang berpengkalan di Singapura. "Saya tidak fikir beliau akan dapat bertahan mengekalkan kawalan matawang itu selama yang beliau boleh".

TEKANAN YANG MENINGKAT

Para analis ekonomi meramalkan kerajaan akan melambatkan penilaian semula itu sehingga pertengahan tahun. Rezab Bank Negara yang sebanyak $27.2 bilion itu mampu mencakupi 4 bulan impot sahaja. Apa yang menakutkan ialah lebih SEPARUH daripada kejatuhan itu berlaku pada suku pertama tahun ini sahaja pada pertengahan Mac - dimana $1.5 bilion telah meruap. Ini bermakna tekanan sebenar terhadap matawang sudahpun bermula.

Kawalan matawang mungkin telah menolong sedikit penghijrahan modal pada tahun 1998. Tetapi masalah Malaysia sekarang ialah untuk menarik balik minat pelaburan itu kembali. Mengekalkan matawang yang terlebih nilai di saat dunia menghadapi kelembapan ekonomi tidak akan menyelesaikan apa-apa masalah.

Nyatalah tidak ada sebarang jembalang asing berperanan di sini untuk dipersalahkan oleh Mahathir lagi. Persoalannya apakah Mahathir yang degil batu lagi nakal busuk itu akan mendengar rintihan golongan peniaga di negerinya sendiri dan menukar citarasa mengikut keadaan semasa.

-Terjemahan Kapal Berita-

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/ apr2001/nf20010420_372.htm

APRIL 20, 2001

NEWS ANALYSIS

Mahathir Is Cornered by His Currency Peg

Malaysia's ringgit appears overvalued, and the country's reserves are dwindling. Will the Prime Minister cave in and devalue?

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has rarely been at a loss for words about any perceived threat to his country's currency. In fact, he's infamous for his outrageous canards on the subject. In April, 1998, for example, in a BusinessWeek interview, he blamed a "Jewish conspiracy" for supposedly undermining the ringgit. But when Malaysia's central bank announced on Apr. 16 that foreign reserves had fallen 9%, or $2.7 billion, during the first three months of 2001, Mahathir was conspicuously discreet.

The fall in reserves is an ominous sign because the currency, which Mahathir ordered pegged at 3.8 to the dollar in November, 1998, as part of a series of capital controls, is widely considered to be overvalued. Yet the closest thing to fire and brimstone he could muster was a bland remark to the local press the next day: "The ringgit is not overvalued at all. We are still able to compete." That's because this time the enemy is within.

THUMBING THEIR NOSES.

Bank Negara Malaysia's reserves are evaporating because the country's own manufacturers -- many of them in the electronics sector -- are illegally holding billions of dollars in export revenues offshore. They're thumbing their noses at a hard-to-enforce rule that requires them to repatriate their revenues from exports within six months and to convert that money into ringgit.

The reason? A growing expectation that Bank Negara won't be able to sustain the peg much longer. "There has been ongoing speculation in recent weeks of an imminent devaluation or a repegging of the ringgit, and this has encouraged people to convert to other currencies," concludes Jomo Sundaram, professor of economics at the University of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur. "We're not just talking about foreigners. We're talking about exporters not bringing their money back."

In the aftermath of the 1998 emerging-markets crisis, Mahathir's capital controls -- including the peg -- won grudging praise because they buffered Malaysia's economy against the capital flight and currency collapses that flattened other Asian economies. Indeed, until a few months ago, investors and importers considered the ringgit to be about 20% undervalued.

DESPERATE EXPORTERS.

But economic conditions have changed. "The pendulum is swinging in the other direction," says Mohamed Ariff, executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. Malaysian manufacturers now see the peg as a liability. Earlier this year, the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers issued a public statement urging a ringgit devaluation in light of the weakening of other currencies across the region as Asia's lifeblood -- exports to the U.S. -- dries up. "Exporters are getting desperate," says a foreign investment adviser in Kuala Lumpur.

Bankers in Singapore say Malaysian companies are parking their funds in banks on the island and in other countries where they do business -- anywhere but at home. As a result, the pressure is mounting on the government. On Apr. 5, Standard & Poor's downgraded its Malaysian currency rating from "positive" to "stable," signaling concern that "increasing political and economic stress...could erode the government's financial position." On Apr. 17, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, an independent think tank, citing the lag effect of government stimulus efforts, lowered its forecast for growth of gross domestic product this year to 4%, from 5%.

The manufacturers have interests on both sides of the fence -- but they're rooting for a devaluation, by all accounts. It would hurt their ringgit holdings, but would be a big boon for their exports. In any case, by holding their revenues offshore in dollars, they're making a devaluation more likely. "Unless stopped, the declining trend in [foreign exchange] reserves will undermine the central bank's ability to sustain the ringgit peg," warns an economist in Singapore who asked not to be named.

DEVALUATION DENIALS.

The government has been scrambling to reassure manufacturers and investors alike that all is under control. In an interview on Malaysia's TV3 television network on Apr. 14, Bank Negara Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz denied that a devaluation was in the cards. "If you look at the context of the current environment, it would certainly not be to our benefit to depreciate the currency," she said. An Apr. 14 statement by the National Economic Action Council, a government agency that reports to Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin, said S&P's decision to downgrade Malaysia's currency rating was "not substantiated by economic data."

But the government's reassurances do not appear to have convinced business. Malaysian investors, who account for most of the trading on the local stock market, are already pricing such expectations -- and then some -- into the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, which has plunged 23% since Feb. 1, notes Chew Ping, an analyst at S&P in Singapore.

Devaluation would be a severe loss of political face for Mahathir, who swore to keep the peg until global restrictions on currency trading were imposed. "He painted himself into bit of a corner," says Bruce Gale, an independent political analyst in Singapore. "I think he'll hold the peg as long as he can."

MOUNTING PRESSURE.

Economists say the government will try to delay devaluing at least until midyear. Bank Negara's $27.2 billion in reserves cover four months of imports. What's alarming is the trend, though. More than half the plunge in Bank Negara's foreign reserves in the first quarter of 2001 occurred in the second half of March, when $1.5 billion evaporated. This sugggests that the real pressure on the currency is only starting to mount.

The currency controls may have helped stem capital flight in 1998. But now Malaysia's problem is that it needs to lure capital back. Keeping an overvalued currency in the face of a global slowdown is hardly a solution. Clearly, no foreign demons are at work here. The question is whether the notoriously stubborn Mahathir will listen to his own country's businesspeople and adapt to changing circumstances.

By Michael Shari in Singapore
Edited by Julia Lichtblau