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TJ KB Reuters: Cukai Levi Kurangkan Tekanan Ringgit By Sabyasachi Mitra 3/5/2001 8:05 pm Thu |
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CUKAI LEVI DIHAPUSKAN UNTUK MENGURANGKAN TEKANAN KEPADA RINGGIT
Malaysia menghapuskan cukai levi keluar sebanyak 10% hari ini
sebagai langkah untuk mengurangkan tekanan terhadap ringgit kerana
rezab antabangsa negara sudah semakin susut. Indeks saham BSKL
melonjak sedikit tetapi analis sangsi ia dapat bertahan.
Menurut analis dan pengurus dana, tiga faktor menyebabkan kerajan
bertindak sedemikian: 1- penghijrahan dana asing yang berterusan
2- jurang lebihan dagangan yang semakin sempit (impot/ekspot)
3- kesan dagangan itu terhadap rezab matawang asing
Adalah dijangkakan polisi terbaru itu tidak memberi kesan sebanyak
mana terhadap ekonomi negara kerana kebanyakkan pengurus dana
sudahpun neutral atau serik terkena. Kerajaan terlalu lambat
bertindak sehingga pelabur sudah tidak berminat lagi. Pelabur
melihat Thailand lebih berpotensi dari segi keuntungan ekuiti
dan matawang. Kawalan matawang Malaysia menyebabkan kita dipihak
yang tidak akan menang kerana dunia serantau 'sedang jual-murah'.
Sebanyak $3 bilion dana asing telah keluar dari Malaysia pada suku
setengah tahun 2000. Rezab antarabangsa Malaysia telah susut $26.29 bilion pada
pertengahan April berbanding $34.5 bilion tahun lepas.
Lebihan dagangan susut 17.7% kepada RM13.6 pada suku pertama
tahun 2001 dari 16.5 bilion tahun lepas.
Jurang dagangan terbaru pula adalah lebih rendah (RM 4.2 bilion)
dari anggaran awal (RM4.5 bilion). Ini menunjukkan ekspot makin
melembab. Lebihan dagangan Mac kira-kira RM5-6 bilion sedangkan di bulan
Februari ia ditahap RM6.5 bilion. Menurut Dow Jones, Malaysia dijangka akan dipukul teruk oleh
kelembapan permintaan barangan elektronik akibat kemelesetan
ekonomi A.S. Barangan ini menyumbang lebih 50% hasil ekspot
negara. Bulan Mac lepas ia sekitar 56.2% dari ekspot.
Dow Jones melapurkan jurang dagangan yang semakin menyempit itu adalah
sesuatu diluar jangkaan (pemimpin negara). Kita mengimpot lebih tetapi
eskpot pula semakin berkurang. Rabu lepas, jabatan perangkaan negara menyiarkan maklumat dagangan yang
menunjukkan ekspot telah merosot 6.9% kepada RM29.8 bilion. Ini jauh
tersasar dari anggaran awal ia menurun seperatus mata sahaja (sebanyak 4%).
Dan tiada sesiapa kini merasakan angka itu akan menggelongsor berhenti
di situ sahaja. "Kelemahan itu akan berterusan, kita belum menyaksikan lagi
paras terendah," kata Rajiv Malik, seorang analis ekonomi di JP Morgan Chase.
"Saya tidak fikir kita akan melihat paras terendah sehingga suku ketiga,"
tambahnya lagi Pengurus dana mengalu-ngalukan tindakan penghapusan levi itu
tetapi mereka masih skeptik kepada Mahathir yang telag membakar
sambil memenjarakan mereka pada tahun 1998 dengan kawalan modal.
"Isu pengurusan koporat belum diselesaikan lagi, isu ketidak-tentuan
politik masih ada lagi, keadaan ekonomi yang lembab dan kawalan
matawang juga masih belum pergi," ujar seorang pengurus dana.
Jelaslah kerajaan terpaksa mengeluarkan pelbagai formula baru(a)
dalam waktu terdekat ini kerana ekonomi masih tidak segar-segar
walaupun telah dirangsang banyak kali pada tahun ini sahaja.
Sudah ada Pakej rangsangan, OPP3, RMK-8 dan kini penghapusan levi
pula. Baru-baru ini Zetti sengaja tidak mendedahkan sesuatu
sewaktu mempertahankan dasar kawalan matawang. Rupa-rupanya
jurang defisit dagangan sudah jauh berkurang. Patutlah Mahathir
menyelar (lagi) pelabur luar semasa memberi ucapan di hari buruh
pada 1/5/2001. Perhatikan semua rancangan menyelamatkan negara itu dibentang
oleh Mahathir belaka walaupun Daim masih bekerja. Daim mula
'bercuti' setelah RMK-8 tetapi beliau hadir untuk mendengar
Mahathir berbicara namun bingkas bangun bila selesai - seolah-olah
merasa bosan tidak terkira tetapi tidak dapat hendak dikata!.
Tanpa Daim, Mahathir sudah menguasai serba serbi termasuk ekonomi.
Dia sudah tidak mempunyai orang lain lagi untuk dipersalahkan di
dalam negara ini. Dia mungkin terjerut sendiri jika negara dilanda
krisis tidak lama lagi. Tindakkan Daim bercuti bagai 'satu protes
yang sedikit lainnya' seperti yang pernah dinyatakan oleh Dr KS Jomo.
Salah salah satu sebab pelabur tidak ingin kemari adalah
kerana kehadiran Daim dan Mokhzani sendiri yang merupakan antara
kunci bertukarnya polisi. Adalah sukar untuk pelabur menang
bermain di luar jika mereka berdua terus bebas bermain di dalam
sambil peraturan ditukar dengan senang sehingga pelabur tersepit
dan menangis sendirian. Keadaan politik masakini yang bergolak serta sikap kerajaan yang
tidak telus itu menyebabkan pelabur terpaksa bergantung kepada
khabar angin yang bertiup rancak kerana khabar benar akan menyebabkan
Mahathir tergugat. Suasana sebegini menyebabkan pelabur terpaksa
berteka-teki sepanjang masa yang tentunya merbahaya. Lebih baik
mereka bermain di tempat lain yang lebih selamat. Bukan salah
pelabur untuk tidak tiba di Malaysia, tetapi salah Mahathir sendiri
kerana membiarkan pelabur kekelabuan fakta.
Rencana terbaru Fortune menunjukkan negara Cina kini sudah menjadi kuasa
ekonomi besar untuk menggantikan Jepun yang tidak sudah-sudah dihempap
masalah sehingga semua perdana menteri mereka kalah atau terpaksa mengalah.
Pelabur sudah beralih selera ke Cina. Ini termasuk syarikat Jepun sendiri
di mana Sony dan Toshiba mengilang di Cina untuk diekspot ke Jepun! Lebihan
dagangan impot ekspot Cina kini lebih besar dari semua negara sejak Jepun
membolotnya pada tahun 60an. [Rujuk Fortune:
Asia's Latest Export: Deflation] Menurut Bank Dunia, FDI di Timur Asia telah meningkat sebanyak 42% tahun
lepas kepada $92 bilion dengan Cina menyerap 71% dari jumlahnya. Ini
menyebabkan negara serantau terpaksa menyaingi Cina yang murah kos buruhnya
tetapi kecekapannya. Dengan nilai matawang yang tinggi, Malaysia akan
lingkup tidak bermaya. Tambah lagi dengan kata celupar Mahathir, pelabur
sudah tawar hati untuk menjenguk tiba. Kebanyakkan FDI baru ke Malaysia
sewaktu krisis dulu lebih berbentuk pelaburan petrokimia dan elektronik
sahaja tetapi yang elektronik itu sudah sakit nampaknya.
Ada satu perkembangan menarik - Telekom sedang cuba mengimbangi
kemunculan time dotCom (Dow Jones). Time dotCom begitu gah ia mampu menguasai
pasaran - sekarang bagaimana? KWSP dan KWAP sepatutnya perlu berfikir
panjang sebelum melabur di syarikat telekomunikasi. Jangan lupa bekas
hero Celcom, Rosli Man berada di dalam Telekom Malaysia! Kita simpan
komen lanjut dalam hal ini di lain waktu yang mengizinkan.
-Terjemahan/Ulasan Ringkas Kapal Berita-
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pi_news_id=586106&pi_ctry=my&pi_lang=en
Malaysia scraps exit levy to ease ringgit pressure
By Sabyasachi Mitra KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia's move to scrap a 10
percent exit tax on portfolio funds' profits is aimed
at easing pressure on its ringgit peg as foreign
exchange reserves decline, but may have little effect
in the immediate weeks ahead. Though the share market jumped after the finance
ministry announced the move on Wednesday, analysts
questioned whether the momentum would be sustained.
The bellwether Malaysian share index rose 4.20 percent
or 24.52 points to a one-month high of 609.02 by 0854
GMT. Analysts and fund managers said the continued outflow
of foreign funds, a narrowing trade surplus and their
depleting effect on foreign currency reserves prompted
the Malaysian authorities to abolish the exit levy.
"It is a surprise move but it is related to concerns
over the ringgit peg. This is one way to arrest the
slide in reserves," said Nizam Idris, regional
economist at IDEAglobal.com. "But the decision may not have much impact at the
moment as most fund managers are either underweight or
neutral on Malaysia," Nizam said. Foreign funds pulled out nearly $3.0 billion from
Malaysia in the second half of 2000.
It is hoped the lifting of the 10 percent tax on
profits of portfolio funds repatriated within one year
will lure back foreign investors and boost foreign
exchange reserves, which in turn would help ease
pressure on ringgit devaluation. "If they can attract capital then it will help to raise
reserves," said Eddie Lee, economist at Vickers Ballas.
"But right now it's inconsequential and I don't think
it's a key factor for fund managers," he said.
Malaysia's international reserves dipped to $26.29
billion in mid-April from $34.5 billion in the same
period a year ago. The sharp fall in reserves, together with a wobbly yen
and sliding regional currencies, had stoked speculation
in the markets that Malaysia may devalue the ringgit
currency, pegged at 3.8 to a dollar since September
1998. Investors' concern over the peg was reinforced again on
Wednesday when the Statistics Department released trade
data for the January-March quarter. Malaysia's trade surplus fell by 17.7 percent
year-on-year to 13.6 billion ringgit ($3.6 billion) in
the first quarter of 2001 from 16.5 billion in the same
period a year ago. The central bank has repeatedly sought to allay
investor concerns by saying Malaysia would gain nothing
from depreciating its ringgit currency right now.
"People, on the back of their minds, are still
concerned about the ringgit peg," said Sheree Tan,
chief investment officer at Morley Fund Management in
Singapore. "Is this a prelude for other things to come?" said Tan,
who manages funds worth S$3.5 billion ($1.9 billion).
LATE MOVE The finance ministry, in a two-page statement released
before the opening of the stock market, said the levy
was abolished after discussions with local and fund
managers. But fund managers said the move came a bit late in the
day as investors have already bolted out of the
domestic markets and it may not be enough to lure them
back, at least in the short-term. "This is not going to change how we think about
Malaysia. It will take time to get back a lot of the
trust that has been lost," said a Singapore-based fund
manager. A series of government-led bailouts of politically
linked corporates and concerns over protection of
rights of minority shareholders has spooked foreign
funds. Lee said Malaysia would lag behind its neighbours even
if there was a turnaround in the regional asset
markets. "Investors see more potential in a country like
Thailand in terms of equity as well as currency gains.
The peg has put Malaysia in a no win situation," he
said. But most analysts expect Malaysia to hold on to the
peg, which together with low interest rates, has been
the key to lifting the economy from recession after the
Asian economic crisis of 1997-98. http://livenews.lycosasia.com/cgi-bin/get.pl?
pi_news_id=588848&pi_ctry=my&pi_lang=en
Malaysia drops foreign portfolio fund investor tax
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia said on Wednesday it had
scrapped a 10 percent tax on profits of portfolio funds
repatriated within one year, ending the curbs on foreign investors
imposed since 1998. "The abolishment of the levy today is the culmination of a series
of gradual steps towards full liberalisation which began in
February 1999," the Finance Ministry said in a statement.
The ministry said the latest move, which is effective immediately,
marked an end to a series of restrictions on foreign portfolio
funds. The news lured some foreign funds back into Malaysian stocks and
lifted the key share index to end at a one-month high of 611.42
points, up 4.61 percent on the day. This was the biggest one-day
gain in 20 months. "It came unexpected, but it's a good surprise," said Chie K. Ngu,
research manager at TA Securities. Overall volume was 329 million
shares -- the heaviest so far this year.
Stocks that are favourites among foreign investors like Malayan
Banking Fund managers hailed the move but said they remained wary towards
a country that burned them in 1998 with capital controls.
"It's a small step in the right direction," said one fund manager
at a foreign house in Singapore. "The issue of corporate governance has not gone away, the issue of
political uncertainty has not gone away, the slowing economy and
the ringgit peg, that's not gone away," the fund manager said.
OFFERS COMFORT The government's move marked the dismantling of one of the three
pillars of the capital controls Malaysia adopted in September 1999
to widespread international consternation.
The other two pillars -- controls on the transfer of funds in
external accounts and the pegging of the ringgit to the U.S.
dollar -- remained in place. Analysts said the move on Wednesday could provide some support to
those hoping Malaysia would not immediately alter its
long-standing ringgit peg of 3.80 to the dollar.
"It also shows to the market the ringgit peg will remain for the
time being," said Manokaran Mottain, economist at SBB Securities.
Greater net inflow of foreign funds would help ease pressure on
ringgit devaluation. A sharp fall in reserves, together with a
wobbly yen and sliding regional currencies, had stoked speculation
in the markets Malaysia might devalue the ringgit.
Malaysia registered a net outflow of about $3 billion in the
second half of 2000 as foreign funds fled the country.
The key KLSE Composite Index has lost 42 percent since its high of
1,009 points in February last year, losing more than 170 billion
ringgit in market value. On September 1, 1998, Malaysia prohibited the repatriation of
portfolio investments held for less than 12 months to stem an
outflow of funds during the Asian financial crisis.
As the economy began to recover, the 12-month requirement was
relaxed in February 1999 to allow outflows of capital and profits
subject to payment of a levy of up to 30 percent depending on the
holding period. REDUCING TEDIOUS PAPERWORK Malaysia simplified the rule in September 1999 by introducing a
flat 10 percent tax regardless of the holding period of the funds.
Last October, the government announced that only profits
repatriated within one year would be taxed, though it delayed
implementation of the rule to February 1 this year.
"The abolishment makes equity investments in Malaysia on par with
the rest of the world," said Phua Lee Kerk, a fund manager at APS
Asset Management in Singapore, which oversees $200 million.
"It reduces the tediousness of paperwork that has deterred some
investors from coming into the country."
Still, gains were limited by lingering concerns about corporate
earnings and the ability of Malaysian companies to compete with
larger foreign rivals. "It still comes back to the attractiveness of companies in
Malaysia. Investors are still waiting to see how competitive the
companies will become," Phua said. Malaysia exit levy move offset by other issues: Vickers Ballas
KUALA LUMPUR (AFX-ASIA) - The positive impact of abolishing the flat 10
pct exit levy on profits repatriated from portfolio investments is
offset by other issues, Vickers Ballas head of research Sebastian Chang
said. "It (the levy removal) puts Malaysia back on the map ... Malaysia can
now at least compete on an equal footing with other bourses.
"However, there are other issues that investors will continue to look
at such as the political situation, corporate governance and, to a
certain extent, the pegging of the ringgit," Chang said.
He said he views the current currency controls as a good decision by
the government, and does not foresee any de-pegging or re-pegging of
the ringgit in the near future. But Chang acknowledged that the currency peg issue could be a hurdle
preventing foreign investors from coming back to the market.
He said present gains on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange are most
likely short-term and speculative in nature, with long-term investors
expected to return to the market gradually.
Chang noted that foreign funds currently have "zero or almost zero
weighting" on Malaysian equities and will have to start rebuilding
their portfolios, starting with index-linked counters, before the
impact flows into the broader market.
Given the exit tax removal and barring any negative news, Chang said
the KLSE composite index could eventually surpass his year-end target
of 766 points or 15.7 times price-to-earnings ratio (PER), which is
based on placing a 25 pct discount on the composite index's 10-year
historical average PER of 21 times. Chang said the current market PER of 12 times is very cheap.
http://livenews.lycosasia.com/cgi-bin/get.pl?
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(Partial Excerpts Only) MARKET TALK/SG/KL: Malaysia March Trade Data Surprises
1242 [Dow Jones] MALAYSIA: March trade surplus comes in
lower-than-expected at MYR4.2 billion (market had eyed MYR5
billion-MYR6 billion), due mostly to strong growth in imports for
capital goods, up 29.5% on-year at MYR4.5 billion; a sign private
investment growth continuing despite slump in exports, down 6.9%
on-year.(NHW) 1224 [Dow Jones] MALAYSIA: Move to attract more foreign investors and
buffer falling forex reserves by abolishing 10% exit levy on
repatriated investment profits unlikely to have significant medium-term
impact on market it as may fail to lure back foreign funds, analysts
say. Many believe move too little, too late. "Valuation-wise it makes
Malaysia more attractive than before, however concerns about corporate
governance and relative appeal of regional markets" may cap gains, says
Rajiv Malik, senior economist at JP Morgan Chase in Singapore. KLCI up
2.2% at 597.23 in knee-jerk reaction to news.(VGB)
1149 [Dow Jones] MALAYSIA: March trade surplus likely MYR5 billion-MYR6
billion, say economists, down from February surplus of MYR6.5 billion;
market watching for effect of slowing global demand, particularly for
electronics, on Malaysia exports. Also eyeing capital goods imports as
measure of private investment; data expected at 1201 today.(NHW)
1114 [Dow Jones] MALAYSIA: Investors may become jittery ahead of
sentencing later today of Mohamad Azmin Ali, opposition leader and
former personal secretary to jailed politician Anwar Ibrahim, after
conviction of perjury; Azmin, member of National Justice Party's
supreme council, testified during Anwar's trial that police had used
threats and force on him to make confession implicating Anwar. His
sentencing could be another blow to opposition party's efforts to
undermine ruling coalition.(VGB) http://livenews.lycosasia.com/cgi-bin/get.pl?
pi_news_id=585994&pi_ctry=my&pi_lang=en
DATA VIEW: Malaysia's March Exports Slump, Worse To Come
KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Malaysia's March trade surplus of 4.2 billion
ringgit ($1=MYR3.80) is more narrow than most analysts' expectations,
mostly due to a sharper-than-expected decline in exports.
Malaysia is expected to be hard-hit by the global slowdown in demand
for electronic products amid slower economic growth in the region and
the U.S. These products usually make up over 50% of the country's
export revenue. In March electrical and electronic goods accounted for
56.2% of total exports. However, there is some optimism from soaring imports of capital goods
during the month, signaling rising consumption despite lower exports.
Earlier Wednesday, the statistics agency released March trade data
showing that exports slumped 6.9% on year to MYR29.8 billion, far more
than the drop of between one percentage point and 4% expected. And no
one expects the figure to stop there.
"The weakness will carry on, we haven't seen the bottom yet," Rajiv
Malik, senior economist at JP Morgan Chase says. "I don't think we'll
see bottom until around the third quarter," he adds.
Like most Asian countries Malaysia's aggregate trade makes up well over
80% of its gross domestic product. A local daily newspaper Wednesday quoted central bank Governor Zeti
Akhtar Aziz as saying that economic growth would be around 5% this
year, at the lower end of the government's official forecast range of
5% to 6%. In the past, Zeti has said growth will likely be around 6%
this year. (MORE) Dow Jones Newswires 02-05-01 0631GMT Copyright (c) 2001 , Dow Jones & Company Inc
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Malaysia exit levy move offset by other issues:
Vickers Ballas KUALA LUMPUR (AFX-ASIA) - The positive impact of abolishing
the flat 10 pct exit levy on profits repatriated from
portfolio investments is offset by other issues, Vickers
Ballas head of research Sebastian Chang said.
"It (the levy removal) puts Malaysia back on the map ...
Malaysia can now at least compete on an equal footing with
other bourses. "However, there are other issues that investors will
continue to look at such as the political situation,
corporate governance and, to a certain extent, the pegging
of the ringgit," Chang said. He said he views the current currency controls as a good
decision by the government, and does not foresee any
de-pegging or re-pegging of the ringgit in the near future.
But Chang acknowledged that the currency peg issue could be
a hurdle preventing foreign investors from coming back to
the market. He said present gains on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange are
most likely short-term and speculative in nature, with
long-term investors expected to return to the market
gradually. Chang noted that foreign funds currently have "zero or
almost zero weighting" on Malaysian equities and will have
to start rebuilding their portfolios, starting with
index-linked counters, before the impact flows into the
broader market. Given the exit tax removal and barring any negative news,
Chang said the KLSE composite index could eventually surpass
his year-end target of 766 points or 15.7 times
price-to-earnings ratio (PER), which is based on placing a
25 pct discount on the composite index's 10-year historical
average PER of 21 times. Chang said the current market PER of 12 times is very cheap.
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