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AP: Morgan Stanley Adds to Malaysia Woes
16/5/2001 7:13 pm Wed
[Skim baru MSCI dijangka akan menjejaskan tahap kompetetif
beberapa syarikat gergasi di Malaysia seperti Telekom dan Tenaga.
Ramai pelabur menggunakan paparan MSCI untuk menyusun strategi
potfolio pelaburan mereka. Skim ini menekankan kepada saham
yang boleh diurusniaga atau terapung bebas - bukan kepada
saiz modal yang dikumpulkan. Malaysia tergugat kerana kebanyakkan
saham utama dikawal oleh agensi kerajaan.
Sentimen pelabur terhadap Malaysia sudahpun berada di paras negatif.
Satu kajian pungutan suara Dow Jones Newswires Asia poll bulan April
lepas mendapati Malaysia mendudukki tangga kedua terbawah sebagai negara
yang paling teruk selepas Indonesia. Patutlah kerajaan begitu menggelepar
sekarang ini. Lain kali ikutilah nasihat pakar kerana mereka sudah
bertahun-tahun belajar dan mengajar. Minggu lepas Tenaga Nasional
tergelincir - minggu ini cuba perhatikan prestasi Telekom Malaysia
pula. Ada sesuatu yang getir sedang melanda negara akibat wawasan sewel
perdana menteri kita.
Wednesday May 16, 3:13 AM
Morgan Stanley Adds to Malaysia Woes
The widely anticipated move is not expected to cause a dramatic
investment outflow from Malaysia because foreign funds are already
severely underweight and in most cases below the anticipated new
weighting, analysts said.
Nevertheless, sentiment is already grim due to lower corporate
earnings, an economic slowdown and worries about a currency
devaluation, and the weighting is rattling investor nerves on the
Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange.
The key Composite Index of 100 blue chip stocks on Tuesday
finished down 0.9 percent at 561.6 points, the lowest level in just
over one month. The MSCI announcement is scheduled for
Saturday and is part of a move to gradually adjust its global indices
to a free-float weighting system.
The changes have huge implications. MSCI estimates $500 billion in
global funds are directly linked with its indices and $3 trillion are
benchmarked against them. Malaysia, along with Hong Kong, is expected to be the hardest hit
in the region by the changes, Deutsche Bank said earlier this week.
Malaysia, along with Hong Kong, is expected to be the hardest hit in the region by the changes, Deutsche Bank said earlier this week.
Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect Morgan Stanley
to reweigh Malaysia in its close-tracked MSCI All Countries Far
East Free ex-Japan index to between 4 percent and 5 percent
from 8.9 percent, where the weighting stood on April 30.
``Malaysia will be significantly affected but the actual impact should
be minimal given that most funds are probably well below that
already,'' said Chehan Perera, deputy head of research at ABN
Amro Asia Equities Research in Kuala Lumpur.
``The move is well-anticipated and lots of people have already sold
down but in an environment where sentiment is bad, this could
make it worse,'' said Terence Wong, head of research at Straits
G.K. Goh Research.
Included in sweeping changes to its indices, MSCI will publish the
full list of constituents and their inclusion factors for the MSCI
Provisional Index Series, a new set of indices it will begin
calculating and publishing May 31.
This new series, which includes a measure of free-floating stock, or
the volume of publicly held shares available to investors, will run in
tandem with existing indices based on full market capitalization. The
new system will be phased in over two stages on Nov. 30, 2001
and May 31, 2002.
Hurting Malaysia is the relatively low amount of free-floating stock
available in some of the country's biggest listed companies,
including Telekom Malaysia Bhd. and Tenaga Nasional Bhd. which
are largely controlled by the government.
Fund sentiment on Malaysia is already negative. A Dow Jones Newswires Asia poll in April ranked Malaysia just above Indonesia, the most underweight country in the region.