BILA PEDIH TIDAK TERPERI - SEMUA AKAN MENJADI MANGSANYA NANTI

Saya ingin memberi fokus kepada Telekom Malaysia dalam nukilan kali ini kerana banyak kisah mengenainya muncul kebelakangan ini. Sebelum itu kita titip ringkas gelagat beberapa gergasi ekonomi yang telah tercedera setelah Mahathir mengurus ekonomi sendiri tanpa Daim berada di sisi.

Seperti biasa rakyat akan menjadi mangsa krisis yang melanda negara sekarang ini. Ia datang berdikit dahulu sebelum banjir memusnahkan semua termasuk yang kaya raya sejak dulu. Semua akan merasa termasuk rakyat yang saban hari menyokong UMNO sehingga sanggup menggadaikan nyawa dalam sia-sia. Dan tempoh itu mungkin tidak lama kerana bank sudah mula berhati-hati mahu meminjam kepada sesiapa.

Gergasi Bank Pun Berkumbah Membusuk Serata Negeri

Hutang lapuk (NPL) sudah meningkat akibat kelembapan ekonomi. Ini akan menjejaskan pendapatan bank. Itulah punca saham bank begitu bergolak sekarang ini. Akibatnya bank sudah tidak berani meminjam wang kepada sesiapa yang dicurigai tidak dapat membayarnya termasuk penyokong kuat UMNO juga.

Bank tempatan yang sudah bergabung itu kini terpaksa menyelesaikan banyak masalah termasuk saingan sesama sendiri dan masalah mengurangkan kos yang bertindih sana sini. Dalam kesibukkan itu Bank mungkin kehilangan fokus yang amat diperlukan disaat ini - menjanakan ekonomi.

Apa yang menarik KWAP telah membeli 2.09 juta lagi saham CAHB dalam tempoh April 5-24 pada kadar harga yang tidak dinyatakan. Sekarang dana itu sudah memilikki 26.47 juta saham atau 2.25% daripada syarikat tersenarai Bumiputra Commerce Bank.

Potfolio KWAP yang asyik merugi:

Mac 2001: RM904 juta untuk 273.9 juta saham Time dotCom @ RM 3.30 [kini @ RM 2.04]

Dec 2000: RM280 juta untuk 70 juta saham MAS @ RM 4.00 [kini @ RM 2.55]

Campur tolak, anggaran jumlah kerugian atas kertas KWAP kini = RM470 juta hanya untuk menghidupkan sang kroni.

Gergasi Tenaga Yang Sudah Tidak Bertenaga Lagi

TNB masih kepeningan mengapa pelabur bertempiaran lari sedangkan segala maklumat sudah pun diberi. Masalahnya mudah sahaja - Jamaluddin Jarjis tidak boleh dipercayai walaupun berjam-jam dia bercakap berdiri. TNB sudah terperangkap antara kepentingan sendiri dan kepentingan diktator yang sudah merapu berbicara berkali-kali.

Gergasi Telekom Tersimpul Dalam Wayar

Perhatikan ada banyak berita mengenai Telekom Malaysia sejak akhir-akhir ini. Ia bagai sang gergasi yang sedang meraba-meraba mencari setelah tersesat beberapa hari jika tidak beribu-ribu hari.

Langkah kerajaan untuk mengawal-selia internet menyebabkan ramai pihak gusar di hati ingin mencuba MSC. Rencana terbaru AWSJ telah mendedahkan keresahan ini. Pengurangan caj oleh Telekom untuk penghuni MSC dijangka tidak akan menjanakan 'spark' (percikkan) pembangunan R&D kerana si otak yang bergeiliga itu bukan berada di MSC, tetapi di dalam 'garaj' (tempat letak kereta) sebagaimana yang ditonjolkan dalam cerita 'Anti Trust' yang dapat dibeli di pasar-malam tanpa perlu menggigit jari. Cerita ini mengisahkan betapa otak yang bergeliga itulah penentu kejayaan di hari muka - bukannya kemudahan gergasi yang lengkap serba-serbi. Yang perlu lengkap sebenarnya ialah otak manusia yang tidak memerlukan bangunan berjuta-juta harganya untuk berfungsi sebaik-baiknya.

Pelaburan menggila Telekom Malaysia di MSC itu terlalu lambat untuk dipungut hasilnya yang lumayan - itu pun jika MSC menjadi. Masalahnya teknologi pengiriman data yang memesat kini mungkin akan membuat semua wayar yang di susun atur oleh Telekom terpupus sendiri.

Jika kita perhatikan perkembangan teknologi masakini - dunia sedang menuju ke era tanpa wayar (wireless communication technology). Akan tiba satu ketika nanti kos untuk menjelajahi internet tanpa wayar (misalnya) tidak akan jauh beza dari kos untuk melayari melalui talian telefon masakini. Telekom mungkin akan merendahkan lagi kos melalui talian berwayar - dan ini tentunya akan mengikis lagi untungnya nanti (atau hidup merugi??). Sila perhatikan banyak alat tanpa wayar mula direkacipta akhir-akhir ini. Itulah punca 3Com membeli Palm Computing - kerana Palm telah merevolusikan dunia perhubungan melalui komputer sebesar telapak tangan yang bernama PalmPilot itu. Malah banyak telefon bimbit yang dikeluarkan kini mempunyai ciri-ciri Palm ini. Sudah ada usahasama antara Palm dan pembuat talifon bimbit untuk mengintegrasikan dua alat penting buat manusia ini. Dengan kata lain - teknologi dunia kini sedang memusat ke telapak tangan anda (the world is merging in your bare hands, if not inside your pocket). Sudah tentu tidak ke MSC!

RUMUSAN

Kesemua gergasi tersebut telah terjebak dalam projek wawasan Mahathir dan perniagaan kroni sehingga mencederakan diri sendiri. Mereka masih belum tumbang lagi - tetapi beberapa berita yang tersiar itu seharusnya dibaca dengan teliti. Yang menjadi mangsa awalnya ialah para pekerja syarikat-syarikat ini. Itu akan diikuti oleh kenaikkan kos kepada pengguna nanti. Jabatan perangkaan baru-baru ini mendedahkan inflasi sudah meningkat pada bulan April lepas sebanyak 1.6% akibat kenaikkan kos kereta baru, tembakau dan minuman keras (4.8%), kos perubatan (2.6%), gasolin (2.6%), tenaga (1.6%) dan tambang bas dan tren (4%). [Bloomberg-BTS 17/05/2001]

Inilah kesannya pembangunan wawasan Mahathir. Kroni hidup senang, rakyat makin kesusahan hari dari demi hari. Syarikat yang besar pun sakit inikan pula syarikat kecil yang masih termenung ketiadaan rezeki yang mencukupi. Tidak usah menangis kerana salah diri kita sendiri yang masih berdiam sehingga hari ini. Kita tidak muncul bila dipanggil menyelamatkan negara ini kerana merasa tidak perlu sama-sekali. Semakin lama kita membiarkan negara ditadbir sebegini semakin musnahlah hidup generasi kita nanti. Lighatlah kejadian jenayah yang menjadi-jadi sekarang ini (termasuk oleh polis sendiri) serta sesaknya tempat pemulihan dadah yang lebih ramai penghuni dari yang bersarang di universiti. Itulah bahananya Mahathir menguruskan negara ini.

-Kapal Berita-

Rencana Rujukan:

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/010517/3/pfik.html

Thursday May 17, 9:08 PM

Malaysian bad loans seen rising as economy slows

By Benjamin Low

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia's bad loans ratio swelled to their worst levels in nearly 1-1/2 years in March, and is expected to rise further in coming months as the economy cools, the central bank said on Thursday.

Banks' net non-performing loans (NPLs), based on six-month classification, rose to 7.1 percent of total loans at end-March, the highest since November 1999.

"It can be expected that non-performing loans will increase in an environment in which there is a slowdown in economic activities," Bank Negara Malaysia governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz told a national banking conference.

As Malaysia's economy slows due to shrinking exports to the United States, corporate borrowers are finding it harder to make enough money to repay their debts, causing more loans in the banking sector to turn sour.

Net NPLs stood at 6.3 percent in end-2000. Zeti said the rise in NPLs at end-March was "mainly due to the expiry of indulgence for the classification of a number of loans."

Banks were given last year an indulgence, or additional time from having to classify bad loans that were being restructured as non-performing.

But the slowing economy and falling asset prices have stymied efforts by companies to restructure their mounting debts.

As the indulgence given by Bank Negara expires, banks are starting to classify those loans as non-performing. The time period for indulgences varies from loan to loan and is not made public.

Another 2.6 billion ringgit ($684 million) worth of such loans are yet to be counted as NPLs, Zeti said, prompting recent market concerns they will be a major strain on the banking system.

"However, if all these loans were classified as non-performing, it will only add 0.5 percent to NPLs to loans outstanding," Zeti said.

The anticipated increase in NPLs will also do little damage on the banking system, Zeti said, citing recent studies by the central bank.

FEELING THE PINCH

For now, Malaysia's banks are clearly feeling the pinch from the rise in bad loans, forcing them to make bigger provisions against possible losses.

Malaysia's top bank Maybank announced last week a 48 percent plunge in net profit in the quarter to end-March as provisions for bad debts swelled.

The bank also warned that full-year earnings would be lower than in the previous year.

Other banks such as Commerce Asset soon followed with similarly grim results and profit warnings.

Despite the threat of more loan defaults looming, banks are still aggressively lending.

Total loans outstanding, including private debt securities, rose at an annual rate of 6.6 percent in the first quarter, Zeti said.

On an annualised basis, the growth was 7.6 percent, close to the government's loans growth target of eight percent.

"We have to take risks," said Tan Teong Hean, chief executive director of Southern Bank Bhd . "For my bank, it is well known that we grow best in the bust part of the cycle."

Still, banks are only taking measured risks.

Large corporations are no longer in the limelight after the economic recession in 1998 left giants such as Renong and Lion Corp floundering.

Instead, the bulk of the lending is now aimed at safer markets such as retail and small and medium enterprises.

"Competition is intense because everybody is focusing on the same sectors -- those that are well-sheltered like retail, domestic trade and services," said Bumiputra Commerce Bank Bhd executive vice president Nik Hassan Nik Mohd Amin.

http://livenews.lycosasia.com/cgi-bin/get.pl? pi_news_id=631800&pi_ctry=my&pi_lang=en

MARKET TALK/SG/KL: Malaysia NPLs To Pressure Bk Shrs

1017 [Dow Jones] MALAYSIA: Banking shrs could come under pressure on news that net non-performing loans rose to 7.1% end-March, central bank governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said today in speech; NPLs stood at 6.7% in February and 6.5% in January. Economists warn bad loans will rise as economy slows down. Zeti said bad-loan levels expected to rise in 2001 but will remain "manageable." Commerce Asset Hldgs (1023) yesterday reported 1Q results, with loan-loss provisions surging to MYR160.4 million from MYR71.6 million on-year, and NPLs rising to 6% at end-March from 4.7% end-December. KLSE Finance Index up 0.85% at 4163.74 points mid-morning.(TUP)

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/010517/3/pfkt.html

Thursday May 17, 9:43 PM

Malaysia banks grapple with post-merger blues

By Jalil Hamid

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysian banks, already hit by a slowing economy and rising bad loans, are facing a raft of post-merger pains following the nation's biggest-ever industry consolidation.

All but three of the country's 54 financial institutions had been regrouped into 10 core or anchor banks by end of last year under a government-directed scheme.

And bankers said the real challenge has just begun.

"Merging is relatively easy," said Tan Teong Hean, chief executive director of Southern Bank Bhd , one of the 10 core banks.

"Making it work is where the real work starts," he told an industry conference. "Managing cost is where we start."

He said banks' profit margins were being squeezed by intensifying competition and higher overhead costs due to redundancies in the workforce.

Azman Hashim, a prominent banker who controls the sprawling Arab-Malaysian group , said Malaysian authorities should allow small and boutique banks to exist.

"It's a pity that small is no longer beautiful," he told the conference.

AMMB, itself a core bank, is in talks to buy MBf Finance to complete its merger process.

Malaysia's central bank chief Zeti Akhtar Aziz told merged entities to consider rationalising their operations.

"With the legal mergers now completed, the focus has been on the operational integration process to allow the merged banking institutions to operate as a single entity," she said in a speech at the conference.

NPLs MAY RISE .

In the same speech, she said banks' non-performing loans, based on six-month classification, soared to 7.1 percent for the first three months of this year -- the highest in nearly 1 ½ years.

She warned NPLs could rise further in the coming months as the economy cools. NPLs stood at 6.3 percent a quarter earlier.

Still banks' bottomline are already hit, due mainly to rising NPLs as banks were forced to increase bad debt provisions. Many have also incurred large one-off post-merger costs.

Malaysia wants to create bigger and stronger banks to face global competitors.

But despite the much-touted mergers, Malaysian financial groups are still dwarfed by bigger players in the region.

"Domestic banks have significant gaps in scale, skills and scope vis-a-vis foreign competitors," said James Bemowski, managing director of consultants McKinsey & Co, Malaysia and Singapore.

He told the same conference that Asia-wide, foreign names "were attacking the most attractive segments and services" in the banking sector.

Malaysian bankers said they expect further mergers among local players to face the foreign challenge.

"We know it's not over," said Southern's Tan.

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/news/story/0,2276,7890,00.html?

May 16, 2001

Pension fund raises stake in Commerce Asset

KWAP now owns nearly 26.5m shares or 2.25% in the group

By Eddie Toh in Kuala Lumpur

NATIONAL pension fund Kumpulan Wang Amanah Pencen (KWAP), which has come under fire for its recent aggressive forays in the Malaysian stock market, has acquired more shares of Commerce Asset-Holding Bhd (CAHB).

KWAP bought another 2.09 million shares of CAHB, the owner of the second largest bank in Malaysia, between April 5 and April 24, at undisclosed prices.

The pension fund now owns 26.47 million shares or 2.25 per cent in the listed parent of Bumiputra-Commerce Bank.

KWAP also dispelled the notion that its holding of 24.38 million CAHB shares were acquired on March 22. The pension fund said the shares were acquired between July 1997 and March 22 this year. Of the total of 24.38 million shares, about 15 million shares were acquired after March 15 this year. This is because CAHB's annual report as at March 15 showed KWAP as a substantial shareholder with only 9.35 million shares. KWAP's recent foray in the stock market is likely to come under further scrutiny following its surprise involvement in the dismal initial public offering (IPO) of Time dotCom and the purchase of a substantial block in Malaysian Airline System.

In March, KWAP, which comes under the office of Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin, disclosed that it coughed up RM904 million (S$432 million) in cash to take up 273.9 million unwanted Time dotCom shares at RM3.30 apiece following its IPO. Mr Daim suggested that the agency had miscalculated as it had expected the IPO to be fully taken up. 'KWAP was one of the sub-underwriters. They expected the shares to be over-subscribed,' he told reporters then. Time dotCom, part of the Renong stable, closed at RM2.04 yesterday.

In December, KWAP bought Brunei Investment Agency's entire 70 million shares in national carrier Malaysian Airline System (MAS) at RM4 apiece.

MAS closed at RM2.55 yesterday.