[Mahathir sengaja mengaib dan menendang mereka yang berkaliber dalam Umno agar tiada sesiapa dapat mencabar atau menyainginya. Dia kerap melantik seorang yang lemah sebagai pengganti seperti Ghafar dan Pak Lah supaya dia diperlukan lagi kerana penggantinya tidak cukup belajar lagi. Mahathir sengaja mengurangkan alternatif supaya ahli Umno tiada pilihan lain selain dirinya. Akibatnya Umno semakin kepupusan idea dan tokoh kerana semua yang bersinar telah dicemari dengan wang atau khabar yang melayang.

Strategi itu berlaku juga diluar parti. Sesiapa yang boleh mengugat akan dipenjarakan - samada orang ataupun akhbar. Sekarang golongan muda menjadi sasaran berikutan tangkapan 2 pelajar di bawah akta ISA. Mahathir tidak begitu gentar dengan PAS kerana isu negara Islam itu dirasakan sudah cukup berkesan sehingga ia asyik diputar. Lagipun PAS kurang menyengat walaupun dihadiahkan banyak isu yang hebat. Tetapi parti keADILan amat mengancam sehingga model parti itu cuba ditiru dalam beberapa segi. Namun begitu ada sesuatu yang sukar ditiru sampai kini. Kepimpinan keADILan kebanyakkannya muda-muda belaka dan ahli-ahli mereka mempunyai semangat yang amat waja yang sanggup menempah risiko. Itu tidak ada dalam Umno yang asyik mengangguk atau mengangkat kata sahaja. - Editor]

http://www.economist.com/ world/asia/displayStory.cfm? Story_ID=695676

Mahathir's anniversary blues

Jul 14th 2001 | KUALA LUMPUR

From The Economist print edition

After 20 years in power, can anything persuade the strongman to step down?

A LESSER autocrat would be slinking towards the exit by now. Mahathir Mohamad is beset by crumbling support among the Malay majority, growing disaffection within the Chinese ethnic minority and sporadic, but nonetheless shocking, public criticism from a handful of judges and respected members of his own party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO). Moreover, an economy that is slowing sharply, without having recovered from a collapse three years ago, will add to Dr Mahathir's worries in the coming months.

Yet, as he prepares to celebrate 20 years as prime minister on July 16th, Asia's longest-serving elected ruler is voicing doubts about everyone but himself. In a rare understatement last week, the 75-year-old Dr Mahathir neatly summed up his opponents'-and some would say his country's-enduring burden: "I'm afraid they'll find it difficult to get rid of me."

This, it must be noted, is at odds with the official line. Dr Mahathir has suggested several times in the past few years that he will relinquish power before the next general election, due by 2004. These occasional musings helped him to shore up support among wavering Malays before the last general election, in 1999, and again in the approach to party elections last year. Dr Mahathir has also begun speaking of the deputy prime minister, Abdullah Badawi, as his eventual successor, breaking a previous habit of dismissing his deputy as ill-prepared. The forces driving these concessions are likely to grow more compelling over the next couple of years. So does Dr Mahathir really believe that he can defy his detractors and win another term as prime minister?

Malaysia's political system is designed to help him do so. But for the first time since independence in 1957, UMNO may find it hard to fend off democratic pressure for change. Although its coalition won a two-thirds majority in parliament in 1999, it sustained an unprecedented loss of supporters at its base. Some turned to the Islamic party, PAS, which increased its hold on the north-eastern state of Kelantan and gained control of its neighbour Terengganu. It seems unlikely that PAS's aim of eventually governing Malaysia could be realised; the Malaysians are too fond of their material comforts to embrace Islamic austerity. All the same, PAS offers a powerful message to the voters: it has been demonstrably honest in the states it controls, and so far has been moderate in imposing the ways of Islam. At the next general election, UMNO will face 650,000 new voters in an electorate of 10m. Many of them are young people who have been outraged by Dr Mahathir's monopoly of power and by stories of corruption in his administration. Even the prime minister has given warning that an opposition victory might be "no longer that difficult".

Although dissidents have been complaining loudly for the past few years, Dr Mahathir's vulnerability may also start to embolden those with stronger links to the establishment, increasing calls within UMNO for him to step down. He has already faced several legal setbacks in the past few months, surprising many observers. A High Court judge recently ordered the release of two dissidents who had been jailed under the Internal Security Act, chastising police in the process and voicing doubts about whether Malaysia needed such a draconian law.

None of this seems to have weakened Dr Mahathir's fondness for his favourite tactics. Despite the release of some dissidents, five of the ten opposition activists who were arrested under the security act in April remain in jail. Last week two students were arrested under the act. In another action to show his strength, Dr Mahathir has recently taken over the finance ministry from his long-time ally, Daim Zainuddin. Although officially Mr Daim has resigned to take a well-earned rest, Dr Mahathir's three previous deputy prime ministers could be forgiven for detecting a pattern. Over the past two decades, whenever he has looked shaky, he has jettisoned a close ally and carried on.

That is why, for all the apparent momentum building against him, it is too soon to begin counting the days until Dr Mahathir yields power. Opponents and pundits have been forecasting his demise for the past few years, analysing one big event after another for signs that his end is near. More high drama will no doubt surround a state election in Sarawak, which must be called this year. Towards the end of the year, the first post-Daim budget can be expected to prompt questions about how long Dr Mahathir's pump-priming can sustain him.

Yet it is still impossible to predict which way his large ego will lead him. The recent bluster may indeed be a prelude to resignation-a show of confidence to convince everyone that he is leaving on his own terms. Perhaps one more anniversary in office, or independence-day celebration, or fiscal package, really will be all that Dr Mahathir needs to declare victory and become autocrat emeritus.

Despite all the recent dissent, the prime minister still retains huge powers with which to suppress any real criticism. And after watching so many other autocrats lose power-such as Suharto in next-door Indonesia-Dr Mahathir may yet conclude that it is best to hang on indefinitely. Otherwise, he may one day have to hear what other Malaysians really think of him.