[BN begitu pakar menyerang kelemahan parti pembangkang tetapi parti pembangkang agak sukar mengeksploitasi kelemahan BN walaupun ianya amat banyak sekali. Kenapa agaknya? Mahathir dan BN kelihatan agresif dan menyerang sekarang sedangkan BA seperti bertahan dan hilang tumpuan. Ini akan membolehkan BN mengejar kembali setelah jauh ketinggalan. Wawasan satu parti multikaum itu adalah idea BA yang sedang ditiru secara perlahan.

Sudah tiba masanya untuk BA mencari jalan untuk menutup semua kelemahan sebelum terlambat. Jika tidak sampai bila pun BN akan terus menang kerana hanya SATU kelemahan BA yang begitu lama dibiarkan. - Editor]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/today/160701_News20.html

ANALYSIS / MALAYSIA

Mahathir goes multi-racial

The next general election in Malaysia is due in three years' time, but Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who celebrates 20 years in power today, is taking no chances.

Sh Chong
Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok Post

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has already started his re-election campaign.

The reason is because his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is at its weakest point in 44 years (since Malaysia achieved independence).

In the last general election in 1999, the UMNO-led National Front coalition won with a two-thirds majority but failed to get more than half the Malay votes.

The root cause of the split among the Malay grassroots is the Anwar Ibrahim issue, which refuses to disappear from the public consciousness.

Dr Mahathir controversially sacked his former deputy in 1998, in a move that is seen by some to be politically motivated. Mr Anwar is currently serving a 15-year sentence on corruption and s###my, which he denies.

The ruling coalition government returned to power in 1999 largely on the back of overwhelming support from the minority races, namely the ethnic Chinese.

However, Dr Mahathir can no longer take this influential community for granted. In the past year, several of the 75-year-old leader's actions have resulted in a swing to the opposition.

This includes issues concerning affirmative action (for the Malays) and several education-related matters.

In a high-profile by-election in Dr Mahathir's home state last year, the ethnic Chinese threw its support behind the opposition and helped it wrest control over a seat that the government had never lost before.

The wily premier organised a summit for all 13 parties in the National Front on July 7 to discuss the future of the coalition.

Some 3,000 delegates attended the coalition summit, the first to be held in six years. Dr Mahathir surprised the crowd by telling them that the coalition will one day evolve into a single unit instead of a grouping.

"In the long run, the Barisan Nasional (National Front) will become one party and not just an alliance," he said. "This should take time but this should be our objective."

This was significant as it marks the first time Dr Mahathir has articulated such a goal for the coalition.

Nevertheless, political observers are not surprised that Dr Mahathir is taking this approach. When the Malay grassroots are split, the ethnic Chinese become the king-makers.

Malays make up about 60% of the population; the ethnic Chinese about 30% and ethnic Indians and other races the remaining 10%.

Other efforts he has taken to improve ties with the ethnic Chinese community include the appointment of ethnic Chinese aides who will act as his advisers on Chinese community affairs.

Most recently, the government has approved the Malaysian Chinese Association's (MCA) application to set up a university, which would naturally give ethnic Chinese students a higher chance to get a local tertiary education. The MCA is the second most powerful party in the National Front.

Meanwhile, the opposition, which has until recently enjoyed an increase in popularity at UMNO's expense, is starting to squabble.

The main reason is that the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (or PAS, it's Malay acronym) is insisting that it will turn Malaysia into an Islamic state if the opposition should come to power after the next elections.

The opposition Alternative Front consists of PAS, the ethnic Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party, the Anwar-linked Keadilan and the tiny People's Party of Malaysia. The last two are currently in the midst of merging into one party.

The mere spectre of an Islamic state scares the ethnic Chinese to no end as it would drastically change their way of life. PAS currently controls two states on the East Coast, which give an indication of how the whole country would be run if a PAS-led opposition should come to power. There are strict rules with regards to consumption of alcohol, and supermarkets require that men and women queue up separately. Cinemas play movies with the lights on to prevent youths from participating in amorous activities.

PAS shocked many investors when it stated last month that a PAS government would shut down Malaysia's only casino, which is a profitable listed company. There are other lottery and gaming-based listed companies that would be badly affected if PAS should come to power.

The possibility of an opposition coalition break-up is high. The DAP, in particular, has been very vocally opposed to PAS' stance on the Islamic state issue.

"Any proposal to salvage the Barisan Alternatif (Alternative Front) can only succeed if the message can be sent out loud and clear to Malaysians that a vote for BA in the next election is not a vote for an Islamic state," said DAP chairman Lim Kit Siang.

The DAP suffered badly in the last general election as ethnic Chinese voters abandoned it in favour of the ruling coalition government because of fears of an Islamic state.

Many long-time supporters of the DAP have not forgiven it for teaming up with the fundamentalist Muslim PAS.

Mr Lim has warned that in the coming elections, if voters are faced with a choice of an Islamic state or unprecedented sixth term of office for Dr Mahathir, they will choose the latter. And, he's right.