[Mahathir nampaknya begitu takut untuk mengakui Malaysia mungkin dihempap kemelesetan. Dulu dia dan Rafidah mengatakan Malaysia mungkin terjejas sedikit sahaja. Tetapi kalau sudah beribu-ribu pekerja kilang dibuang itu bukan sedikit lagi. Dan kalau rezab negara sudah di tahap kerak itu maknanya formula Mahathir selama ini sebenarnya tidak menjadi. Mahathir dan Daim tidak memulihkan ekonomi - tetapi semakin menjahanamkan ekonomi. Sepatutnya Malaysia mempelbagaikan ekspot sejak krisis dulu tetapi kerajaan telah mempelbagaikan bantuan buat kroni. Setelah itu barulah cuba memberi bantuan kepada rakyat itupun setelah tragedi berdarah Kg Medan terjadi.

Tentu kita masih ingat Anwar mencadangkan agar sektor pertanian diberikan tumpuan khas tetapi kerajaan tidak mengendahkan cadangan itu. Sebaliknya begitu banyak tumpuan khas diberikan kepada kroni sedangkan pulangannya hampir tiada kepada ekonomi rakyat melainkan mencekik kita lagi dengan kos sarahidup yang semakin tinggi.
- Editor]

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/business/story_15207.asp

Singapore recession blows ill wind through Asia

AFP - The winds of recession in Singapore are blowing dark clouds across Asia, with analysts saying a reliance on exports has left the region vulnerable in the face of the US-led global slowdown.

Although most countries may escape the stigma of being tagged "in recession" growth targets are being slashed close to zero.

Analysts believe that with the exception of China, Asian countries will find it difficult to escape year-on-year negative growth.

"With the economies of Japan, Euroland and other emerging markets similarly floundering, Asia's export-led economies will also face challenges in locating alternative sources of external demand," said Standard Chartered strategist John Tan.

Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan, like Singapore, were particularly exposed either all or in part to tumbling demand for electronics.

As finance ministers throughout Asia wrestle with their growth forecasts, revising them down, Taiwan has already admitted to being in danger of joining Singapore in recession.

"Taiwan's situation is very worrisome," says Chen Poh-chih who chairs the Council for Economic Planning and Development.

The Asian Development Bank says South Korea and Malaysia "are likely to see the sharpest slowdowns" in East Asia, although Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has rejected the prospect of recession by its official definition.

Questioned about a quarter-on-quarter decline, which economists say is a more accurate barometer of current trends Mahathir said: "This is not the way to calculate things ... it's compared to (the same period) last year."

The Asian problem this time ironically stems from the cure for the 1997-98 financial meltdown. Then, the United States was the shining knight who came to the rescue offering an export haven.

Four years on, the United States is ailing and Asia is suffering from becoming over reliant on the US market, particularly its technology needs.

"An unfortunate by-product of Asia's recent crisis is that many of the region's economies have become more dependent on export-led growth, with the US as the favoured target destination, in lieu of undertaking concrete economic reforms and restructuring to rebuild solid foundations for domestic demand growth," said Tan.

"Although the US underwrote Asia's 'V-shaped' recovery in 1999, the present decline in the US IT sector is exporting recessionary forces to the region in the form of collapsing exports."

Thailand and Hong Kong have been quick to distance themselves from Singapore's woes which are seeded in an economy where the electronics sector contributes to more than half of manufacturing output, and manufacturing activity accounts for 22 percent of Singapore's gross domestic product.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has ruled out recession saying Bangkok "is not so concentrated on IT exports, and we have restructured our economic base to focus on the grassroot economy."

Hong Kong financial secretary Antony Leung said his economy did not rely on the same exports as Singapore and hence it has been "less affected" by the slowdown in the technology sector.

But neither Thaksin or Leung could deny their economies are hurting.

George Magnus, a London-based economist with investment bank UBS Warburg, says that aside from the US downturn, the fragility of the Japanese economy puts Asian countries at risk.

The yen was likely to slip against the dollar and this would add pressure on other Asian currencies as countries sought to protect their export competitiveness, he said.

While Japan is technically not yet be in recession, the ministry of economy, trade and industry says every one of Japan's nine regional economies is in recession.

"In contrast to the situation in the aftermath of the 1997-1998 financial crisis, Asia's economies will find it difficult to resuscitate growth through exports," says Tan of Standard Chartered.