[Angka-angka ekonomi yang dipaparkan oleh kerajaan nampak hebat tetapi kedudukkan rezab negara tetap juga tenat. Ringgit masih tertekan. Pekerja masih dibuang. NPL makin bertambah. Dan sekarang Renong dan Halim terpaksa diusik juga setelah sekian lama dibiarkan - jika tidak akan semakin punah sistem perbankan. Apa yang menarik ada seorang analis meramalkan satu bank akan dikunyahkan.....

Negara sepatutnya dirawat dan diubat segera dengan membuang semua kuman yang merbahaya tetapi Mahathir terlalu lambat bertindak sehingga satu (atau banyak?) bank begitu teruk tercedera. Kalaulah dirawat awal-awal dulu sakitnya tidaklah sebanyak mana. Kini sakit itu sudah membiak hingga banyak pihak terkena. Lain kali jangan menggunakan lagi khidmat doktor tua yang sudah tidak mampu bekerja - anda mungkin akan kehilangan sesuatu yang amat berharga dalam hidup anda. - Editor]

http://www.feer.com/0107_26/p054econmon.html

ECONOMIC MONITOR: MALAYSIA

A Sense of Malaise

By S. Jayasankaran

Issue cover-dated July 26, 2001

The possibility of a recession is beginning to loom in Malaysia. On July 12, Singapore announced an annualized economic contraction of 10.1% in the second quarter. The city-state is now in what analysts call a "technical" recession--two consecutive quarters of quarter-on-quarter contraction. The news sent the Singapore dollar to an 11-year low against the U.S. dollar, and sparked fears that Malaysia, whose economic performance often mirrors that of its neighbour, could soon follow suit.

Malaysia's export-led growth is, like that of Singapore, driven by electronics products. Demand is slowing in the United States, which is the biggest market for both countries. Singapore-based analysts are beginning to sound warning bells about the Malaysian economy as well as their own.

Economists at stockbrokers UOB Kay Hian in Singapore say that the protracted economic slowdown in the U.S. will drastically slash second-half growth across the border, tipping the Malaysian economy into recession. Meanwhile, SG Securities in Singapore has downgraded its 2001 growth forecast for Malaysia to 0.7% from a previous estimate of 2.5%.

In Kuala Lumpur, those who believe recession may be looming are still in the minority. Malaysia's economy grew by 3.2% in the first quarter of 2001, and Premier Mahathir Mohamad, now also finance minister since the departure of Daim Zainuddin, expects it to keep up momentum in the second quarter.

On the face of it, the numbers look quite reassuring. Inflation is running at 2%, and unemployment at 3.1%--roughly the same levels as in 2000. Interest rates remain low. Three-month money rates--the industry benchmark--are fluctuating between 3% and 3.3%, while the base lending rate, equivalent to the U.S. prime rate, is 6.7%. External debt is relatively low at 51% of GNP last year compared with 58% in 1999. The savings rate, at almost 40% of GNP, is one of the highest in the world.

Nonetheless, there are still fears for the ringgit. While the country's foreign-exchange reserves have stabilized somewhat, standing at $26.3 billion in June, analysts point to the recent slide in currencies accross the region. "The central bank has bought time but, going forward, the pressures on the ringgit are rising," says Manu Bhaskaran, chief economist for SG Securities in Singapore.

Since January, there has been widespread speculation that the ringgit, pegged at 3.80 to the U.S. dollar since September, 1998, may have to be devalued to maintain the competitiveness of Malaysian exports. While the central bank has emphatically denied the possibility, the pressure on the Malaysian currency hasn't gone away.

What's more, the proportion of nonperforming loans in the banking system is once more on the increase. In April, nonperforming loans made up 12.9% of total loans, up from just 10% in January. Gan Kim Khoon, head of research at Arab-Malaysian Securities in Kuala Lumpur, estimates "on a worst-case basis" that nonperforming loans could hit 18.8% by the first quarter of next year. If this prediction comes true, at least one Malaysian bank may have to be recapitalized.

Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to rise. There were more than 3,000 layoffs in May, four times more than in the same period last year. A further wave of restructuring and job cuts is expected in the banking and manufacturing industries this year as both undergo painful consolidation. In May, chaotic scenes ensued after a government hospital in northern Perak state advertised 500 vacancies, attracting thousands of people for interviews.