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Dunia Suram BSKL Cemerlang?
By Kapal Berita
21/8/2001 6:19 am Tue
DUNIA SURAM BSKL CEMERLANG?
Demam ekonomi kini sudah melanda negara Eropah. Ini bermakna tidak ada
satu benua yang dapat membantu (datang melabur) atau membeli barang yang
tidak laku. Hanya negara China yang kelihatan dapat bertahan kerana ia
mempunyai permintaan domestik yang tinggi. Yang lain terpaksa mencuba
formula yang pelik-pelik tetapi kantul juga. Ada pula yang menipu dengan
melonjakkan beberapa angka agar dapat diambil wang dari mereka yang
tertipu. Padahal barang dan khidmat mereka sudah tidak laku dan hutang
sudah terlalu banyak sehingga tidak mampu membayar dengan wang sendiri.
BSKL DIPACU UNTUK DISENTAP DANA ITU
Penyusunan semula sektor koporat Malaysia serta prestasi terkini
BSKL nampak seperti satu kemajuan yang memberangsangkan sehingga ramai
tertipu dengannya. Padahal ia satu permainan untuk menyentap dana pihak
yang tidak perasan. Banyak syarikat kini sudah diambang kemelesetan
sehingga tidak mampu membayar hutang. Untuk itu bank telah diberi kata dua
agar memaafkan hutang yang bukan sedikit jumlahnya. Manakala BSKL pula
dipacu tinggi agar 'hutang dapat bertukar kepada saham'. Kerajaan mahu
BSKL nampak aktif dan mengancam agar ia dapat menyentap dana untuk
'menyusun semula' hutang.
SUSUN HUTANG ATAU ALIH HUTANG
Apa yang berlaku kini bukannya satu kemajuan tetapi mengalihkan beban
dan kerugian kepada orang lain yang kurang perhatian serta penelitian.
Perhatikan sipeminjam tidakpun dikenakan apa-apa tindakkan (guaman) kerana
gagal membayar hutang - sebaliknya bank pula yang perlu menanggung kerugian.
Sepatutnya siberhutang yang LEBIH dipertanggung-jawabkan dan lebih terbeban
kerana merekalah faktor UTAMA kerugian. Yang tersenyum riang akhirnya adalah
sipenyangak dan ini memungkinkan mereka kembali semula untuk menyauk wang....
Ini bermakna penyakit tidak akan hilang kerana tidak ada pengajaran.
PEMINJAM LEBIH SAKIT DARI SIPEMINJAM
CDRC (Corporate Debt Restructuring Committee) kini telah diberi lebih
kuasa untuk memaksa pemegang saham dan pemiutang agar memberi potongan
hutang yang lebih besar. Ini bermakna bank perlu menelan kerugian yang
lebih besar dari jangkaan dan terpaksa melupakan sebahagian besar hutang
Contohnya, MBf Capital memohon agar dimaafkan sejumlah RM1.1 bilion
daripada RM1.3 bilion hutang! Bank tiada pilihan kerana syarikat ini
sudah menanggung kerugian bertokok sebanyak RM2.6 billion.
Syarikat Rekapacific yang pernah dikawal oleh anak Ling Liong Sik mungkin
akan menjadi syarikat pertama yang ditendang dari BSKL kerana gagal
menepati syarat penyenaraian. Ia gagal untuk menyediakan lapuran tahunan
akaunnya sejak 1997 lagi!
HARAKAH MEMBERI FOKUS KEPADA EKONOMI
Harakah keluaran terbaru nampaknya sudah mula memberi fokus kepada
sektor koporat. Usaha ini patut diberi pujian kerana disinilah Umno
menyauk wang. Ia juga akan menelanjangkan tembelang Mahathir yang kini
menjaga hal-ehwal kewangan. Tanpa wang Umno sudah lama tenggelam.
Inilah realiti dan sumber kekuatan Umno yang sebenarnya..... Tanpa wang
ia takkan mampu membeli orang. Jika ekonomi meleset akar-umbi Umno sendiri
akan mengerang dan memberontak kerana mereka sudah tiada pilihan.
ANWAR FUNDAMENTALIS (AGEN TALIBAN?) ATAU AGEN CIA?
Satu ketika dulu kerajaan menuduh Anwar sebagai agen CIA sehingga ia dicatat
dalam afidavit Murad Khalid. Sekarang Anwar dikatakan fundamentalis Islam pula
seperti yang dilapurkan oleh Bernama yang menyetujui pendapat Amy Ridenour. Ini
adalah dua kenyataan atau karekter yang bertentangan antara satu sama lain!!
Apa sudah jadi dengan mesin propaganda kerajaan sekarang??? Atau sudah dilanda
sindrom 'mudah lupa'?? Atau sudah terlalu haprak dan bangang agaknya??? Tidakkah
ini menunjukkan kerajaan telah menipu rakyat sebenarnya?
-Ulasan Kapal Berita-
M'sia Inc revamp: pains are short-term
By Eddie Toh
The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index (KLCI) has chalked up a
gain of 100 points, or 18 per cent, to 655.76 points in less than three months. But
although impressive, the market barometer is still only half way from its historical
high of over 1,300 points in 1994.
It is highly unlikely that the KLCI would be able to touch its previous high given
the massive flood of foreign funds into the market at that time.
But there is still room for the benchmark index to rise further. For a start,
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has played all the right cards to regain
Investors love the premier's move to step up efforts, without fear or favour, to
remove the mountains of debt at politically well-connected companies.
Favourite son Halim Saad will no longer be shielded by the political
establishment and may even be booted out of the highly-indebted
Renong-United Engineers Malaysia group.
The government has launched a hostile takeover bid to wrest control of UEM,
and possibly Renong, from the beleaguered tycoon. If successful, the
government will hive off the group's debts through the sale of assets and the
listing of some of its units.
And the government has appointed two young professionals to the helm of
Malaysian Resources Corporation Bhd (MRCB) - the media empire closely
linked to the dominant political party United Malays National Organisation.
Apart from cleaning up MRCB, the new management is set to revive its two major
associates - newspaper publisher The New Straits Times Press and broadcaster
Sistem Televisyen Malaysia, better known as TV3.
Other highly-leveraged companies like Lion Group, Johor Corporation, Putra
and Star will also come under greater scrutiny.
The cleansing has been long awaited and necessary, but investors must watch
out for pitfalls in the restructuring of Malaysia Inc.
Some of the corporate revamps will be protracted and may flop. They may not
necessarily translate into higher stock prices for the affected companies in the
For instance, the Corporate Debt Restructuring Committee is now empowered to
force shareholders and creditors to accept bigger 'haircuts'. This means that
banks will have to take bigger-than-expected losses and won't be able to write
back some of the provisions for the soured loans.
In one extreme case, MBf Capital has asked its creditors to forgive a staggering
RM1.1 billion (S$506.6 million) out of its total debts of RM1.3 billion. Bankers may
have no choice but to take the massive haircut as the company, founded by the
late Loy Hean Heong, has accumulated whopping losses of RM2.6 billion.
Shareholders of insolvent companies will have to pay the price as well. Capital
reduction exercises will wipe out much of the shareholders' funds. Share prices
will fall to reflect the reduced par value and the new capital structure.
Investors should note that not all Malaysian companies can be resuscitated.
About 80 companies, or 10 per cent of the number of listed companies, are still
struggling to come up with viable restructuring schemes to maintain their listed
The most dire case may be Rekapacific, previously controlled by the son of
Malaysian Transport Minister Ling Liong Sik. It may become the first company to
be booted out of the exchange for failing to turn its fortune around under the
stricter listing guidelines. It has not even furnished an annual report since 1997!
Market players should also watch out for restructuring schemes that are overly
dependent on the stock market as a solution. Instead of biting the bullet, some
companies, encouraged by the relatively buoyant stock market now, may attempt
to issue paper to raise funds to get out of debt.
But such schemes may not always succeed. As seen in the past, stock market
conditions could change in a matter of months after restructuring schemes are
Despite the hazards of investing in troubled firms, debt revamps are absolutely
necessary to put companies on a firmer footing. Past excesses will hold back the
rising stocks unless the debts of Malaysia Inc are purged.
Economic Whiplash: Slump Has No Borders
Joseph Kahn and Edmund L. Andrews New York Times Service
Monday, August 20, 2001
With Europe and Asia Stagnating, No Region Is Expected to
Replace U.S. as Growth Engine
WASHINGTON The world economy, which grew at a raging pace just
last year, has slowed to a crawl as the United States, Europe, Japan
and some major developing countries undergo a rare simultaneous
The latest economic statistics from around the globe show that many
regional economic powers - Italy and Germany, Mexico and Brazil,
Japan and Singapore - have become economically stagnant or have
fallen into recession, defying many economists' expectations that
growth in other countries would help compensate for the slowdown in
the United States.
The $33 trillion world economy is still likely to expand this year, as it
has every year since the Great Depression. Of the top economies, only
Japan's total output seems likely to shrink, and even bearish
forecasters say they expect the world to grow at about a 2 percent rate,
a bit faster than during international slumps in 1982 and 1991.
Still, many experts say the world is experiencing economic whiplash,
with growth rates retreating more quickly and in more of the leading
economies than at any time since the oil shock of 1973.
And this time, there is no single outside factor to account for the
widespread weakness, persuading some economists that recovery may
be slow in coming.
"We have gone from boom to bust faster than anytime since the oil
shock," said Stephen Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley.
"When you screech to a halt like that, it feels like getting thrown
through the windshield."
The biggest surprise is the sluggish performance in Europe, especially
Germany, where leaders had until recently thought they could escape
the American slowdown.
The German economy, Europe's largest, came to a standstill in the
second quarter of this year. Italy and the Netherlands are showing
practically no growth. And France's relatively frothy economy has
slowed sharply as both consumers and businesses cut back on
The result is that Europe, with a combined economy about as big as
that of the United States, is in no position to fill in for the United States
as a locomotive of world economic growth.
"On balance, I'd say that the likelihood of continued difficulties here
and abroad is higher than the prevailing view of most economists," said
Robert Rubin, the former Treasury secretary who is now a co-chairman
R. Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the White House Council of Economic
Advisers, says the slowdown among America's peers is worrying,
especially Japan's troubles, which he called "quite severe."
But he also said that the reasons for weakness were idiosyncratic,
varying from place to place, and that there was no reason to expect
that international problems would drag the United States or Europe into
"It might feel like a recession in some places," he said, "but I don't see
an outright recession here or in Europe."
Not long ago the United States hoped to have more help. European
policymakers confidently predicted in the spring that the region would
grow at about its long-term potential rate of 2.5 percent. But many
forecasters now predict that it will be less than 2 percent this year - not
much better than the United States.
European leaders also acted as if they were certain their new common
currency and the growing economic integration of Europe made the
region more independent and less vulnerable to outside economic
But they were blindsided by problems at home. European demand for
consumer goods and industrial machinery throughout the region is so
tepid that it offers no source of growth at all.
European companies seem persuaded that the real future growth
markets are not at home but in the United States, Asia and Central
Europe, so domestic investment has lagged.
What is striking about Europe's slowdown is that so much of it is linked
to internal weakness - what Daniel Gros of the Center for European
Policy Studies in Brussels describes as long-term "speed limits" on
Exports are running still slightly ahead of last year, which was one of
spectacular growth. Yet consumers at home are clutching their
BMW's worldwide sales were up 9.7 percent in the first half of this year,
but up only 1.1 percent in Germany. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis
Vuitton, the French luxury goods producer, reported that sales of its
VSOP Cognac surged 25 percent in the United States in the first half of
this year, faster than in Europe.
"Europe's slowdown has very little to do with the United States," Mr.
Higher energy and food prices are a big problem for the region. But
Thomas Mayer, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs in Frankfurt,
says price shocks are only part of Europe's woes.
He also faults the unwillingness of political leaders to liberalize the
labor markets and give employers more freedom in hiring and firing.
France and Germany recently have taken steps to bolster the power of
unions and make it more difficult to lay off workers.
"That is the sort of thing we should especially try to avoid right now,"
Mr. Mayer said.
In Latin America, Mexico has been in recession since April, with its
economy shrinking for the third straight quarter. Brazil, the largest Latin
American economy, has suffered soaring interest rates and a persistent
energy crisis. Argentina is seeking further International Monetary Fund
aid to support its crumbling economy.
The situation in Asia looks no better. Singapore has tumbled into a
severe recession that some economists say is the worst the island
country has suffered in at least 15 years. Japan once again has
slipped into recession territory as its government battles stubborn
deflation. Nearly every other major economy in the region, with the notable
exception of China's, has seen growth plunge despite six months of
interest rate cuts.
Nearly every other major economy in the region, with the notable exception of China's, has seen growth plunge despite six months of interest rate cuts.
There are at least two schools of thought suggesting that a more
problematic and longer-lasting slump than usual is under way.
The first is the worry that widespread malaise is the flip side of the
record-setting U.S.-led expansion of the 1990s. Greater world
integration in trade, finance and technology fueled the expansion.
But increased interdependence trade now accounts for about a quarter
of world output, double its share 25 years ago, and that means much of
the world can move down in tandem just as it moved up together, some
"This is the first recession in the modern era of globalization," said Mr.
Roach of Morgan Stanley. Most of the top industrial economies have
similar woes, he said, due mainly to the collapse of the boom in
technology spending in both the United States and Europe. That
collapse has hurt corporate profits and investment returns.
And without steady earnings from foreign subsidiaries, it may take
companies considerably longer to overcome the slump.
"The bubble we had in this country was really a global bubble," Mr.
Roach said. "Now it has popped."
Mr. Rubin also said that economic interdependence may have greased
the spread of the American downturn. But he added that the world
would be better off today if countries, especially in Europe, had done
more rather than less to liberalize and integrate their economies.
He said the combined weakness of most of the biggest economies
presented a challenge to policy makers. The United States and other
leading countries need to energetically defend free trade, fiscal
discipline and the spread of technology, he said, or risk a backlash
that could cloud long-term prospects.
"The U.S., even more than usual, must exercise leadership," Mr. Rubin
said. "Without that we may not have a continuation of these forces of
changes and that would have a lasting adverse impact."
Another prevalent concern, popular among conservative
commentators, is that policy mistakes have caused investors to lose
faith in many individual currencies, undermining confidence broadly.
This is particularly true in emerging markets like Turkey and Brazil, both
of which recently borrowed money from the International Monetary
Fund to help protect their currencies.
But these economists also fault central bankers in the United States,
Japan and Europe for failing to keep their currencies stable. The dollar,
they say, has been too strong, while the euro and yen have been too
David Malpass, formerly an economics official in the back-to-back
Reagan and Bush administrations and now a managing director with
Bear Stearns in New York, says that weak currencies and falling
commodity prices worldwide are an insidious threat to growth that
central bankers have failed to counter.
Consumer prices have been falling in Japan for some time and they
have recently begun falling in some especially open economies, like
While they are rising modestly in the United States and Europe,
corporate profits and equity values have sagged, which has a deflating
effect on business and consumer sentiment, Mr. Malpass says.
He estimates that the world's nominal economic growth - growth after factoring in price changes, up or down - has fallen into negative territory this year and will stay negative next year.