Mungkin elok jika saya mencatat sedikit 'rakam bual' di sini untuk mencuit minda pembaca.

MT:

Apamacam saudara,

Baru semalam Tun Daim melalak dengan megah bahawa tahun ini dan tahun hadapan kadar kemajuan negara akan dicatat pada 8%? Tetapi India yang mempunyai jumlah penduduk lebih 50 kali ganda mampu meletakkan sasaran lebih daripada itu. Kemana perginya dasar Malaysia Boleh? Setakat Malaysian Book of Records sahaja? -MT-

Kapal Berita:

Rencana AFP ini menyebut India menyasarkan kadar kemajuan (GDP) setinggi 9% untuk 10 tahun akan datang. India merupakan antara 10 negara yang paling rancak membangun ekonominya. Sejak tiga tahun lepas GDP mencecah 6-7%. Pertanian menyumbang 25% GDP dan ia sedikit tergugat oleh perubahan cuaca. Kenaikkan harga minyak yang diimpot menghenyak US$17 bilion ekstra tetapi India masih mampu menyinar. Ia memberi fokus kepada memudahkan prosedur perdagangan untuk meningkatkan saingan. Tahun ini hingga March GDP dianggarkamn 6%, sedikit turun berbanding 6.4% tahun lepas kerana faktor cuaca dan minyak tadi.

Akhbar Star pula melapurkan GDP Malaysia sekitar 8% pada tahun lepas. Tahun ini Mahathir meramalkan 5.8% kerana kesan kelembapan ekonomi A.S.

Malaysia bergantung kepada ekspot elektronik dan petrokimia [agriculture: 12% industry: 46% services: 42% (1998) ]

India pula bergantung kepada pertanian, perkhidmatan dan kepakaran IT (knowledge economy) dan industri. [agriculture: 25% industry: 30% services: 45% (1997) ]

India Yakin Ada Sebabnya

Rencana AFP tersebut tidak menyebut satu sumber pendapatan negara India yang penting iaitu IT melalui Knowledge Ecoonomy. India mengekspot ramai tenaga kerja komputer dan kepakaran mereka membuat program yang berbelit-belit itu menyebabkan Bill Gates terpesona, walaupun tidak ada MSC di sana. Yang ada di India adalah otak-otak yang bergeliga yang boleh berputar laju asalkan ada wangnya. Kini rakyat India tidak perlu keluar negara kerana pelabur seperti Bill Gates akan datang menjenguk mereka dan semua program boleh dihantar melalui internet sahaja. Inilah konsep ekonomi pengetahuan yang tidak bersempadan (borderless Knowledge Economy) namanya. Ekonomi seperti ini tidak akan tergugat oleh masalah satu dua negara kerana IT sudah menjadi keperluan seluruh dunia. Ia hanya perlu dicipta sekali untuk diguna semua. Selebihnya cuma perlu di tambah goreng sahaja.

Pendidikkan Aset Negara

Ramai yang tidak sedar Bill Gates melabur untuk membina makmal pendidikkan atau kajian di India, bukannya prasarana. Ini adalah kerana pendidikkan adalah segala-galanya dalam dunia Knowledge Economy. Tetapi Malaysia membina bangunan untuk disewa agar dapat dikaut keuntungannya. Nampak jelas orang dan bukan bangunan yang menjadi penentu kejayaan menguasai dunia. Hasilnya India kini tercatat antara 10 negara paling termaju ekonominya. Dan ia tidak terjejas mana walaupun harga minyak naik atau bencana cuaca menimpa. Sebab itulah ia mampu mencecah GDP setinggi 9% nanti kerana kepakaran teknologi menjanjikan pulangan tinggi dalam tukaran matawang.

Boleh Malaysia Siapa Membikinnya?

Jika Malaysia boleh, sudah lama Bill Gates mengambil rakyat dari sini untuk dibawa ke Amerika dan dia akan berbelanja lebih besar di sini dari di India. Malaysia hanya pandai memecahkan rekod sahaja untuk menonjolkan kebolehan luar biasa sedangkan itu tidak bermakna apa-apa. Sampai hari ini tidak ada program bertaraf dunia muncul dari MSC. Malah pegawai kerajaan di PutraJaya masih berkerja dengan kertas seperti biasa! Program yang ditunggu entah dimana tidak kunjung tiba! Malah jangan terkejut jika ia dibuat oleh tenaga mahir dari India juga!!

Menara KLCC misalnya bukannya dibina oleh kita, tetapi oleh pakar luar negara dan buruh asing kebanyakkannya! ESSO di KLCC yang jauh lebih kaya dari Petronas hanya membina bangunan biasa sahaja tetapi Petronas bukan main lagi bergaya padahal minyak di lautan cuma tinggal 15 tahun lagi baki rezabnya!.

-Kapal Berita-

Pengirim: MT

Rencana Rujukkan:

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/010219/1/hm4i.html

Monday February 19, 7:14 PM

India sets nine percent annual growth target for next 10 years

NEW DELHI, Feb 19 (AFP) -

India has set an annual economic growth target of nine percent for the next decade, President K.R. Narayanan told parliament Monday.

"India is among the 10 fastest growing economies in the world. Our economy has grown at impressive annual rates of between six to seven percent during the past three years," said Narayanan.

"However, we need to set an ambitious target of nine percent annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the next 10 years to double our per capita income and halve poverty," he added.

India's economy has been driven slightly off track by a global oil shock and lower agricultural output. Economic growth is likely to be pegged back to about six percent in the current year to March, down from 6.4 percent a year earlier.

Despite economic liberalisation, agriculture still makes up about 25 percent of the country's GDP. Sparse monsoon rains in 2000 hurt overall output.

Narayanan said the government would ensure the agricultural sector did not suffer as import quota restrictions are lifted to comply with World Trade Organisation agreements.

"Our trade policy continues to focus on procedural simplification to improve competitiveness," the president said.

Narayanan said the government would open up a further 25 oil blocks to the private sector by September as part of an initiative to boost oil production and reduce dependence on imports.

"The steep rise in crude oil prices in the last 18 months has increased our oil import bill to nearly 800 billion rupees (17.39 billion dollars)," said Narayanan.

"Therefore, the government is taking specific steps to raise indigenous crude oil production."

Narayanan said that under the initiative, Indian state-run oil companies would take more stakes in oil fields abroad.

Sumber: STAR

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp? file=/2001/2/20/nation/2002jada&sec=nation

Daim: 8% GDP growth likely

By Hanim Adnan and Jagdev Singh sIDHU

KUALA LUMPUR: Finance Minister Tun Daim Zainuddin said Malaysia is expected to show a growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of more than 8% for last year when the figures are released later.

The official estimate for last year is a growth rate of 7.5% and the forecast GDP growth rate for this year is 7%.

The country has posted a growth rate of 11.7% in the first quarter of last year, followed by a growth of 8.8% in the second quarter and 7.7% in the third quarter of last year.

The average growth rate for the three quarters of last year is 9.4%.

Asked whether forecast GDP for 2001 would be revised downwards because the performance of exports have been showing signs of weakness, Daim said it would not be done yet.

He also said the Government does not have the fourth quarter GDP numbers yet.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad had forecast a growth rate of about 5.8% this year as a slowdown in the economic performance of the United States would affect growth in Malaysia.

The Government officially makes its GDP growth forecast twice a year--once during the release of Bank Negara's annual report and the other when the Treasury releases its economic report prior to the Budget.

Meanwhile, Bank Negara Governor Datuk Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said the central bank would be releasing the fourth quarter GDP number at the end of this month.

She said the central bank would be releasing its 10-year master plan for the financial market on March 1.

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/in.html

Sumber: CIA

India Statistics:

Population: 1,014,003,817 (July 2000 est.)

Economy - overview:

India's economy encompasses traditional village farming, modern agriculture, handicrafts, a wide range of modern industries, and a multitude of support services.

More than a third of the population is too poor to be able to afford an adequate diet, and market surveys indicate that fewer than 5% of all households had an annual income equivalent to $2,300 or more in 1995-96. India's international payments position remained strong in 1999 with adequate foreign exchange reserves, reasonably stable exchange rates, and booming exports of software services. Lower production of some nonfoodgrain crops offset recovery in industrial production. Strong demand for India's high technology exports will bolster growth in 2000.

GDP: purchasing power parity - $1.805 trillion (1999 est.)

GDP - real growth rate: 5.5% (1999 est.)

GDP - per capita: purchasing power parity - $1,800 (1999 est.)

GDP - composition by sector:

agriculture: 25% industry: 30% services: 45% (1997)

Agriculture - products: rice, wheat, oilseed, cotton, jute, tea, sugarcane, potatoes; cattle, water buffalo, sheep, goats, poultry; fish

Exports: $36.3 billion (f.o.b., 1999 est.)

Exports - commodities: textile goods, gems and jewelry, engineering goods, chemicals, leather
manufactures

Exports - partners: US 21%, UK 6%, Germany 6%, Hong Kong 5%, Japan 5%, UAE 4% (1998)

Imports: $50.2 billion (f.o.b., 1999 est.)

Imports - commodities: crude oil and petroleum products, machinery, gems, fertilizer, chemicals

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/my.html

Malaysia Statistics

Population: 21,793,293 (July 2000 est.)

Economy - overview:

Malaysia made a quick economic recovery in 1999 from its worst recession since independence in 1957. GDP grew 5%, responding to a dynamic export sector, which grew over 10% and fiscal stimulus from higher government spending. The large export surplus has enabled the country to build up its already substantial financial reserves, to $31 billion at yearend 1999. This stable macroeconomic environment, in which both inflation and unemployment stand at 3% or less, has made possible the relaxation of most of the capital controls imposed by the government in 1998 to counter the impact of the Asian financial crisis. Government and private forecasters expect Malaysia to continue this trend in 2000, predicting GDP to grow another 5% to 6%. While Malaysia's immediate economic horizon looks bright, its long-term prospects are clouded by the lack of reforms in the corporate sector, particularly those dealing with competitiveness and high corporate debt.

GDP: purchasing power parity - $229.1 billion (1999 est.)

GDP - real growth rate: 5% (1999 est.)

GDP - per capita: purchasing power parity - $10,700 (1999 est.)

GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 12%
industry: 46%
services: 42% (1998)