TAG045

[Kawalan matawang hanyalah pagar untuk melindungi kelemahan dan keadaan sebenar ekonomi negara yang tenat akibat banyak berhutang untuk membina projek yang meragukan pulangan. Hutang tersebut cuba disokong lagi melalui tawaran pasaran dan institusi perbankan dan kini Danaharta sedangkan nilainya asetnya semakin tiada. Akhirnya rakyat ditekan dengan kenaikkan harga untuk melegakan kroni dan inflasi bakal mencekik semua.

Nasib Turki adalah bayangan apa yang akan melanda negara akibat bijaknya pemimpin Umno menguruskan ekonomi - mimpi ngeri meranapnya sistem kewangan (financial system doom and nightmare).

Sila rujuk nota kaki oleh Pak -MT- dan cuba fikirkan matawang apakah yang disumbat di dalam beg-beg yang sarat itu? - Editor]

Penterjemah: -MT-

Turki Hentikan Kawalan Matawang

(Turkey Abandons Currency Controls)

Oleh: Ben Holland - Associated Press

Nilai Lira menjunam 27 persen berbanding dollar sebaik sahaja kerajaan menghentikan pengawalan kadar pertukaran matawang untuk mengelakkan krisis yang melibatkan dua pemimpin utama Turki. Di awal dagangan kadar pertukaran di Bank Pusat mencatatkan kadar 950,00 lira bagi setiap satu dollar, berbanding 688,000 lira pada hari Rabu.

Para pegawai bank memberi amaran bahawa kadar yang lebih meyakinkan hanya dapat diketahui apabila kerajaan mengumumkan usahanya untuk membendung inflasi di negara itu.

Penurunan nilai lira itu telah meransang kegiatan di pasaran saham. Ia naik lebih 10 persen daripda 7,945 mata di sessi pagi, satu hari selepas mencatatkan penurunan mendadak sebanyak 18 persen. Para analis menjangkakann munculnya inflasi untuk jangka pendek. Kadar inflasi semasa ialah sekitar 30 persen, menurun daripada 70% pada 1999.

Sejak Turki memulakan program anti-inflasi dengan sokongan pinjaman $11 bilion dollar daripada IMF, di waktu bermulanya kadar tukaran matawang lira berbanding dollar dan euro. Pinjaman semalaman adalah pada kadar 7,500 persen pada hari Rabu, sehinggakan mencetuskan kegusaran adanya krisis politik yang besar.

Pengguguran kawalan tukaran matawang itu, bererti Turki menghentikan satu unsur penting dalam usaha menstabilkan rancangan ekonomi negara. Kerajaan berkata bahawa ia masih mengekalkan program itu, termasuk mempercepatkan usaha pengswastaan monopoli perkhidmatan telefon talian kekal, negara.

Pengarah Urusan IMF, Horst Koohler, telah mengeluarkan satu kenyataan menyokong tindakan yang dilaksanakan oleh Bank Pusat Turki itu. Kohler berpendapat bahawa keputusan mengapungkan lira Turki itu 'sepatutnya dapat membantu menstabilkan kadar pertukaran matawang dan menentukan - mungkin selepas berlakunya kenaikan di tahap awal - penurunan berterusan kepada kadar inflasi.' Kohler juga berkata bahawa IMF akan memberi pertimbangan untuk menyediakan kewangan tambahan kepada Turki dan dia mengsyorkan agar para peminjam tidak menyisihkan bank komersial Turki.

Keputusan kadar pertukaran matawang itu telah diumumkan dalam satu kenyataan yang dikeluarkan selepas berlangsungnya perundingan selama 10 jam di antara Perdana Menteri Bulent Ecevit beserta para menterinya dengan pegawai Bank Pusat Turki.

Catatan Penterjemah:

Nampaknya unsur-unsur inflasi dan stagflasi di Malaysia sengaja dicetuskan oleh pemerintah tanpa sebab yang munasabah. Apakah kesannya nanti akan mengundang suasana kucar-kacir seperti yang berlaku di Turki? Ini adalah serba mungkin dan memang harus dijangkakan oleh setiap rakyat marhaen. Awasilah dan simpanlah wang yang ada di tempat yang selamat, tidak kiralah kalau di dalam peti yang kalis api di rumah sendiri. Ramai sukusakat dan pewaris KEJAM sudah lama melarikan wang simpanan mereka ke seberang tambak. Cuma mereka lebih bijak daripada orang Melayu yang melarikannya secara 'kilo'. -MT-

Rencana Asal:

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/010222/8/i2zq.html

Thursday February 22, 9:20 PM

Turkey Abandons Currency Controls

By BEN HOLLAND, Associated Press Writer

ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) - The lira dropped 27 percent against the dollar Thursday after the government abandoned exchange-rate controls to stem a financial crisis sparked by a quarrel between Turkey's two top leaders.

Bankers said that in early trading with the Central Bank the exchange rate was 950,000 lira to $1, compared with 688,000 lira on Wednesday.

Bankers warned a more accurate indication of the lira's value won't happen until further announcements on how the government will revise Turkey's ambitious anti-inflation program.

The devaluation of the lira helped a hobbled stock market, though. It rose more than 10 percent to 7,945 points in the morning session, a day after losing 18 percent in its steepest fall ever.

Analysts also said Thursday's move would lead to a short-term rise in inflation. The inflation rate stands at about 30 percent, down from 70 percent in 1999.

Since Turkey began its anti-inflation program backed by $11 billion in loans from the International Monetary Fund, it had set daily currency rates for the lira against the dollar and euro.

Overnight lending rates reached an annualized 7,500 percent Wednesday, helping roil markets already fueled by fears of a major political crisis.

By dropping the exchange-rate controls, Turkey is abandoning a key element of its economic stabilization program.

The government said it remains committed to the program, including the rapid privatization of the state-owned
fixed-line telephone monopoly.

The managing director of the IMF, Horst Kohler, released a statement in support of the action taken by the Turkish Central Bank.

Kohler said the decision to float the Turkish lira ``should help stabilize the exchange rate and ensure - possibly after an initial increase - that the inflation rate continues to decline.'' Kohler also said the IMF would consider making additional financial resources available to Turkey and he urged lenders not to shy away from Turkish commercial banks.

The exchange-rate decision was issued by Turkish authorities in a statement released after a 10-hour meeting between Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, his top ministers and Central Bank officials.

``Due to the recent economic conditions, the exchange rate will be left to float freely,'' the statement read. Economy Minister Recep Onal said the decision was effective Thursday.

The economic stabilization program has been under pressure since November when foreign investors were scared off by allegations of corruption in the banking sector.

A new crisis was sparked Monday, when Ecevit stormed out of a meeting with President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, upset after the president criticized the government for failing to battle corruption. Political stability is seen as essential to the success of the economic program.