RIBUT MELANDA EKONOMI NEGARA

Jika Malaysia memang kuat asasnya ia tidak akan terjejas teruk akibat kemelesetan ekonomi di Amerika. Bulan ini tiada berita gembira buat pelabur di pasaran saham walaupun Mahathir cuba beberapa kali dengan pelbagai rancangan untuk mengembalikan keyakinan. Banyak rancangan yang pelik-pelik diumumkan tapi tidak berkesan. Masterplan sudah, Pakej Merangsang pun sudah dan kini OPP3 pula. Tapi pelabur masih tidak menjelma - sebaliknya mereka melarikan diri pula. Banyak yang menjual dari yang membeli sehingga teruk indeks komposit BSKL dibuatnya.

Bloomberg:

Saham menjunam lagi mencecah hari ke 5 - di dahului oleh TNB. Kesangsian terhadap penilaian semula ringgit menjadi faktor utama. Rencana Reuters menyebut TNB meminjam dari luar - inilah puncanya.

Pelabur asing menjual kerana amat bimbang ringgit dinilai semula Situasi sudah menjadi ribut dan tidak ketentuan. Ringgit yang lemah akan mengurangkan nilai dolar pelaburan mereka di Malaysia. Ini menyebabkan pelabur luar memindahkan wang mereka ke pasaran lain.

Indeks Komposit BSKL jatuh 24.10 atau 4.2% kepada 553.24. Ia telah menjunam 20% sejak bulan lepas, sekaligus memecahkan rekod untuk menjadi indeks kedua terteruk berprestasi di dunia pada musim ini. Patutlah pelabur lari.

Perhatikan saham bank terjejas teruk kerana nilai saham yang menjadi kolateral mencekik keuntungan bank. Terdapat kebimbangan peminjam mungkin tidak mampu membayar hutang serta meningkatnya NPL (hutang lapuk).

Reuters:

Ekspot yang menurun telah mencederakan sektor perkilangan yang menyumbang 1/3 (33%) dari ekonomi. Pengeluaran bertambah (4.3%) tapi pada kadar yang paling rendah sejak 22 bulan lepas. Kebanyakan matawang serantau semakin lemah berikutan yen yang terus merosot (sehingga Mori berhasrat untuk meletak jawatan Jumaat lepas). Ini menjadikan ringgit amat tidak kompetetif sehingga ekspot berkurang. Ini juga menyebabkan pelabur keluar kerana saham Malaysia menjadi lebih mahal.

AFP

Seperti biasa Mahathir menuduh orang lain sahaja untuk memindahkan malunya. Beliau menyalahkan Wall St kerana saham yang meragam dan membebel, "En Dow dan En Jones tidak mahu berkira".

MP Hasan Md Ali menyindir dengan soalan jika Mahathir berundur mungkinkah saham akan mendaki semula sebagaimana yang berlaku di Filipina.

Komen

Dua faktor (matawang dan kemelsetan A.S.) kini menghenyak Malaysia ke dalam kancah krisis ekonomi yang mungkin teruk kali ini kerana tidak cukup bersedia dari awal lagi. Mahathir membantu kroni dahulu selepas menang pilihanraya dan hanya kini baru tercungap untuk mengumumkan pakej rangsangan dan rancangan jangkapanjang OPP3. Ini bermakna belanjawan lepas memang tidak memadai dan hanya mampu membuat kita tersadai.

Dasar kawalan matawang Mahathir kini menghadapi detik yang amat getir lagi mencabar. Nampak jelas sektor perkilangan sudah terjejas dan pelabur semakin gundah. Saham terus menjunam sehingga sektor perbankan semakin tergugat. Di Jepun, Mori sudahpun angkat tangan mahu meletak jawatan. Mahathir nampaknya masih berdegil dan menuding jari kepada mamat Dow dan mamat Jones di Wall St pula. Padahal bukan salah peniaga kerana semua peniaga ingin untung belaka.

Mahathir yang degil untuk berkira

Masalah A.S. adalah perkara biasa akibat peralihan kuasa presiden. Selepas kempen Bush-Al Gore, peniaga skeptik tidak tahu kemana Bush mahu memacu negara. Kebetulan pasaran IT sudah tepu sehingga tergugat banyak syarikat teknologi yang menyumbang ekonomi negara.

Sudah lumrah peniaga mahu meletak wang dimana Bush akan menjulangnya - bukannya masalah Dow dan Jones tidak boleh berkira. Tetapi saham menjunam di Malaysia antara lain adalah kerana Mahathir memang payah dibawa berkira. Dia hanya akur bila tersedak dan terdesak sahaja. Semua pelabur sudah tahu perangainya - sebab itulah mereka risau tidak terkira sehingga menjual saham yang ada.

Mahathir kini sedang terjerat oleh arus ekonomi dunia. Perhimpunan agung Umno semakin menghampirinya tetapi iklim niaga meragam pula. Jangan lupa ahli Umno banyak yang berniaga dan bermain saham serta berhutang dengan bank-bank sehingga mencecah ratusan juta. Mereka tentunya tidak senang bila kerugian berjuta-juta di pasaran saham akibat ketidak-stabilan ekonomi negara. Mereka akan memberontak jika tidak pulih ketika persidangan Umno nanti. Jika itu berlaku Mahathir mungkin terpaksa berada di dalam penjara sampai mati....

-TJr Kapal Berita-

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?T=finer99_auto.ht&s=AOtGAkxX.TWFsYXlz

Malaysian Stocks Tumble; Tenaga Leads on Currency Peg Concern

By T.H. Chan

Kuala Lumpur, April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysian stocks fell for a fifth day, led by Tenaga Nasional Bhd. as a slowing economy fueled investor concern the government will allow the local currency to fall to make exports more competitive.

The concern comes even after Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin said Saturday the nation will keep its currency peg. The ringgit has been pegged at 3.80 to the U.S. dollar since late 1998.

A weaker ringgit erodes the dollar value of foreigners' investments in Malaysian stocks, encouraging them to shift their money to other markets.

``Foreigners seem to be selling as they're scared of devaluation. It does make the situation very uncertain,'' said David Watt, who helps manage 50 million ringgit ($13.2 million) at AIMS Asset Management Sdn.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell 24.10, or 4.2 percent, to 553.34. It has fallen 20 percent in the past month, making it the world's second worst performing benchmark index in that period. The broader KL Emas Index dropped 4.76, or 3.5 percent, to 131.1. Falling stocks outpaced rising ones 587 to 78 while 136 were unchanged. Trade fell 11 percent to 106.2 million shares from yesterday. The volume is lower than its six-month daily average of 116.5 million shares.

The following shares are active on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange:

Large capitalized shares fell on concern the government will readjust the ringgit's peg to the U.S. dollar following a slide in the region's currencies. They also fell as a slowing economy may hurt consumer spending. Tenaga Nasional Bhd. (TNB MK ), the country's biggest power company, fell 85 sen, or 8.9 percent, to 8.65 ringgit. Telekom Malaysia Bhd. (T MK ), the country's biggest phone company, dropped 40 sen, or 4.4 percent, to 8.70 ringgit. Malayan Banking Bhd. (MAY MK ), the country's largest bank, fell 35 sen, or 3.5 percent, to 9.65 ringgit.

Malaysia's biggest exporters extended their declines. Industrial production expanded at its slowest pace in two years in February, gaining 4.3 percent from a year earlier. The gain is the smallest since April 1999, when the country emerged from its worst recession. Malaysian Pacific Industries Bhd. (MPI MK ), which makes chips for Motorola Inc., Ericsson AB and others, fell 70 sen, or 7 percent, to 9.30 ringgit. Unisem Bhd. (UNI MK ) fell 45 sen, or 6.4 percent, to 6.55 ringgit.

Banks fell on concern a stock market slump will hurt wealth and borrowers' ability to repay their loans. That may heighten the risk of bad loans on the books of lenders. Commerce Asset- Holding Bhd. (CAHB MK ), owner of the second-largest Bumiputra-Commerce Bank, dropped 30 sen, or 5.6 percent, to 5.05 ringgit. RHB Capital Bhd. (RHBC MK ), the third-largest bank, dropped 13 sen, or 7.5 percent, to 1.60 ringgit. AMMB Holdings Bhd. (AMM MK declined 17 sen, or 6.8 percent, to 2.35 ringgit.

D'Nonce Technology Bhd. (DNON MK ) fell on its trading debut, losing 77 sen, or 39 percent to 1.23 ringgit from its initial public offer price of 2 ringgit a share. The printed circuit board maker sold only two-thirds of 7 million shares on offer.

DRB-Hicom Bhd. (DRB MK ) fell 2.5 sen, or 2.7 percent, to 89 sen, after the auto, transportation and property company denied a newspaper report it's likely to win a $263 million electrified rail project outside Kuala Lumpur.

Palmco Holdings Bhd. (PAL MK ) dropped 8 sen, or 2.6 percent, to 3 ringgit. The palm oil refiner, controlled by IOI Corp., said it's not aware of any shareholders or investors that may be interested in taking over the company.

Sistem Televisyen Malaysia Bhd. (TV3 MK ), fell 17 sen, or 29 percent, to 42 sen. The country's biggest non-state broadcaster said it plans a broad $188 million reorganization that includes a capital reduction plan, leaving creditors in control of the company.

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/010409/3/me1s.html

Monday April 9, 6:48 PM

Malaysian stocks tumble on economic, ringgit fears

By Benjamin Low

KUALA LUMPUR, April 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a worsening economic outlook and speculation of a currency devaluation kept their stranglehold on Malaysian shares on Monday, sending the key stock index tumbling to its lowest close in two years.

The 100-stock Composite Index <.KLSE> dropped 24.10 points, or 4.17 percent, to 553.34, its fifth consecutive day of decline.

Malaysia's market was one of the biggest losers on a day that saw markets across Asia succumb to renewed worries of a U.S. economic recession.

Slumping demand for Malaysian exports is already hurting Malaysia's manufacturing sector, which accounts for over one-third of the economy.

Industrial output grew at its slowest rate in 22 months in February and imports of intermediate and capital goods have dropped rapidly as manufacturers slash production amid cooling demand.

With the U.S. threatening to fall into a recession, Malaysia's economic outlook may get worse and with it, the stock market's performance, analysts said.

"The economic outlook in the U.S. and Malaysia is not improving," said Chie K. Ngu, head of research at TA Securities.

"The whole situation is still deteriorating. So, it's too early to say that stocks have bottomed."

Chipmaker Malaysian Pacific Industries , which sells chips to U.S companies like Motorola Inc, fell seven percent to 9.30 ringgit, leading other exporters lower.

Talk of a devaluation in the ringgit is also depressing Malaysian shares.

13 PCT DROP IN FOUR DAYS

The Composite Index has shed 12.6 percent in the last four days as investors cashed out from the Malaysian market to prevent a loss in the value of their capital investments.

A yen-inspired slump in regional currencies like the Thai baht has raised concerns Malaysia may adjust the ringgit's fixed exchange rate of 3.8 per U.S. dollar to ensure its vital export sector remains competitive.

Though Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin repeated on Sunday there were no plans to alter the peg, the market was unconvinced.

"The current sell down is because of the fear of depegging of the ringgit. If the ringgit is depegged, investors will lose out," said Ang Kok Heng, who helps manage 150 million ringgit ($39.5 million) at TA Asset Management.

Some of Malaysia's largest and best-known companies such as power firm Tenaga Nasional have led the charge lower.

Tenaga fell 85 cents, or 8.95 percent, to 8.65 ringgit, its lowest since December 1999.

The leading Malaysian power company is one of many firms that have borrowed money abroad, exposing it to costlier loan repayments if the ringgit is devalued.

"Every 10 cents increase in the U.S. dollar against the ringgit, will work out to 155 million ringgit in foreign exchange losses for Tenaga," said Teh Chi-Chang, an analyst at SG Research.

Among other large-capitalised firms, phone company Telekom fell 40 cents, or 4.4 percent to 8.70 ringgit while Maybank lost 35 cents, or 3.5 percent, to 9.65 ringgit.

As other Asian markets drop, Malaysian stocks have become relatively more expensive, prompting investors to move elsewhere.

"Generally Malaysia is fair but because blue chips have been well supported, they are higher than the region. So, they are doing a catch-up now," said TA Asset's Ang.

Malaysia's top bank Maybank, for example, is trading at 16 times estimated earnings for 2001 compared with Singapore's DBS Holdings, which is at 12 times.

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/010409/16/me0p.html

Monday April 9, 6:55 PM

Stocks Kuala Lumpur Shares Close Sharply Lower April 9, 2001

KUALA LUMPUR, April 9 Asia Pulse - Share prices on on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange closed sharply lower amid concerns on the outlook of the US economy and the possibility that ringgit could be re-pegged due to the weakening of regional currencies.

At 5.00 pm, the benchmark Composite Index fell 24.10 points or 4.17 percent to 553.34. It opened at 575.17, but from then onwards it took a downward path, hitting a low of 552.90 in the afternoon.

The all Main Board Emas Index lost 4.76 points to 131.10, while the Industrial Index lost 33.95 points to 1,068.72.

The Second Board Index shed 2.18 points to 98.32.

Losers outnumbered gainers by 588 to 78 while 136 counters were unchanged and 231 untraded.

Total turnover increased to 106.245 million shares worth RM286.535 million from 119.170 million valued at RM315.212 million.

BERNAMA

http://asia.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ business/afp/article.html?s=asia/headlines/ 010409/business/afp/ Mahathir_blames_Wall_Street_for_weak_Malaysian_bourse.html

Monday, April 9 2:31 PM SGT

Mahathir blames Wall Street for weak Malaysian bourse

KUALA LUMPUR, April 9 (AFP) -

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad on Monday blamed Wall Street for last week's plunge of almost 11 percent on the Malaysian stock market, saying "Mr. Dow and Mr. Jones are not cooperating."

The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange composite index tumbled another 3.5 percent at the end of morning trade Monday, losing 20.28 points to close at 557.16.

"The only thing we can do is to give incentives to the New York Stock Exchange because every time that one comes down, everbody comes down, not only us," Mahathir told reporters.

"If you look around the region, everybody is performing very badly, all because Mr. Dow and Mr. Jones are not cooperating."

The premier was asked why the stock market had fallen significantly despite recent economic stimulus measures and a 10-year development plan announced by the government.

Dealers said selling of key blue chips continued Monday amid persistent speculation that the Malaysian ringgit peg may be revised amid weaker regional currencies.

Repeated insistences by Mahathir and Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin that Malaysia would not alter or abolish its currency peg has little influence on the market, they said.

Investors, especially foreigners, were continuing to shift to bonds or to cheaper regional markets given weaker regional currencies, they added.

Some analysts have said the weakening of the Japanese yen increases the chances that the ringgit peg, fixed at 3.80 to the dollar since September 1998, will be loosened to make Malaysian exports more competitive.

But Daim on Sunday said the peg would remain and urged Malaysians to instead raise productivity and efficiency to boost exports.

Pankaj Kumar, research head at OSK Research, said the latest industrial output figures reflected the current slowdown in the manufacturing sector which accounts for 33 percent of gross domestic product.

Pankaj said the downward trend began in October last year and was expected to slow further, dampening the economic outlook.

The Statistics Department said Friday that February industrial output rose 4.3 percent year-on-year but fell 2.5 percent from January.

Opposition parliamentarian Hassan Mohamad Ali qestioned Monday whether share prices would rally if Mahathir stepped down, as they did in the Philippines when President Joseph Estrada quit.