RAMAI PERCAYA RINGGIT AKAN DINILAI SEMULA

Ramai pakar ekonomi berpendapat sistem ekonomi negara yang berpusat kepada kawalan wang sedang tergugat berikutan lemahnya nilai yen serta merosotnya matawang serantau yang menyebabkan ekspot negara menjadi semakin tidak kompetetif. Jika gejala ini berterusan ringgit dijangka akan dinilai semula - jika tidak banyak kilang akan merana dan pekerja terbuang merata. Mereka juga berpendapat ini perlu dilakukan seberapa segera kerana rezab asing negara semakin merosot kerana pelabur sudah berduyun-duyun keluar. Jika terlalu lambat pelabur akan tawar hati dan sukar untuk kembali lagi.

Oleh itu mereka percaya ringgit akan dinilai semula dalam waktu terdekat ini walaupun kerajaan sering menidakkannya. Hasilnya indeks komposit BSKL meragam dibuatnya dan kini berada diparas 567.88 pada Rabu lepas.

Bank negara cuba menenangkan keadaan dan mahu kilang meningkatkan produktiviti. Tetapi saham merudum lagi kerana pelabur masih sangsi.

MALAYSIA BEGITU LEKA DENGAN GAGAHNYA ESKPOT DULUNYA

Analis berpendapat Malaysia terlalu leka dan megah kununnya ia telah pulih dari krisis 1997-98 selepas mengenakan kawalan modal dan matawang. Dalam tempoh itu kerajaan tidak bertindak serius untuk melakukan reformasi dalam sektor koporat dan melupuskan syarikat yang tidak cekap. Syarikat seperti MAS dan Renong diselamatkan dengan dana awam untuk melepaskan kroni yang tersepit oleh berjuta-juta hutang. Malaysia sebenarnya bernasib baik kerana DUA faktor telah menyelamatkannya dari terjunam teruk dalam krisis.

1. Ekspot barangan elektronik ke A.S. yang agak tinggi dan

2. Harga minyak petroleum yang meningkat mendadak.

Kita selamat BUKANnya kerana kehebatan Mahathir menguruskan ekonomi. Ekspot elektronik tidak terjejas ketika itu kerana permintaan global barangan IT meningkat. Sekarang ia sudah terlalu tepu dan terjejas. Tanpa kawalan matawang pun kita akan sakit juga.

Sila maklum dua sektor di atas adalah FDI jangkapanjang (long term FDI). FDI baru dalam bidang lain begitu kurang. Banyak FDI yang masuk adalah untuk memantapkan FDI sedia ada - seperti membesarkan kilang dan membina indutri berasaskan petrokimia.

EKSPOT SUDAH TERJEJAS, SAHAM MERUDUM, BANK SAKIT, PERTUMBUHAN SUSUT.

Kini ekspot itu sudahpun terjejas akibat nilai ringgit yang tinggi. Pasaran saham juga semakin merudum. Saham bank sendiri menjunam kerana kolateral pinjaman yang berbentuk saham semakin tidak bernilai. Ini akan melambatkan lagi penyusunan semula hutang koporat yang memang sudah lembab itu. Impaknya - hutang lapuk (NPL) akan meningkat dan bank akan semakin sukar memberi pinjaman sehingga membantutkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sektor swasta.

CUBA MEMACU PERTUMBUHAN TETAPI TIDAK BERKESAN

Menyedari masalah kelembapan pertumbuhan ekonomi, kerajaan mengumumkan satu pakej rangsangan sebanyak RM3 bilion agar kurang terjejas oleh kemelesetan di Amerika.

Tetapi sentimen pasaran masih melemah. Standard & Poor telah mengubah semula tahap matawang asing jangka panjang Malaysia dari positif kepada stabil kerana kebimbangan terhadap melebarnya defisit fiskal, ketidak-tentuan politik dan pemusatan keputusan muktamad.

REZAB ASYIK MEROSOT DAN JATUH TERUK

Apa yang membimbangkan ialah rezab asing yang semakin merosot. Ia susut 4% dari bulan Februari 2001 lepas, satu kejatuhan tertinggi sejak pertengahan 2000. Rezab Bank Negara cuma mampu bertahan 4 bulan impot sahaja pada penghujung Mac.

Zeti memberi beberapa alasan seperti pembayaran balik hutang luar oleh beberapa syarikat tempatan dan kehilangan nilai matawang asing yang disimpan oleh Bank Negara.

PENGEKSPOT BERJAGA-JAGA - SIMPAN HASIL DALAM MATAWANG LUAR.

Kemerosotan rezab itu menyebabkan pengekspot mula meninggalkan ringgit dan cuba membawa modal keluar dari dalam negara. Mereka menyimpan hasil mereka dalam bentuk matawang asing di luar negara sebagai langkah berjaga-jaga ringgit dinilai semula.

BILAKAH RINGGIT AKAN DINILAI SEMULA?

Kunci tanda untuk diperhatikan di sini ialah rezab antarabangsa negara. Jika ia merosot di bawah $25 bilion - cukup untuk menakung impot lebih kurang 3 bulan - Malaysia terpaksa menilai semula ringgit jika tidak makin sukarlah untuk menyekat modal keluar.

Kita meramalkan ia dilakukan selepas perhimpunan agung umno supaya tidak tergugat presidennya. Tetapi ini bermakna banyak dana awam akan dinoda dan dikorek seikut suka sebelum persidangan bermula supaya tampak hebatnya si presiden menguruskan ekonomi negara.

RAFIDAH: PERCAYA KEPADA KERAJAAN?

Rafidah mahu rakyat dan pelabur lebih percaya kepada kerajaan daripada analis. Soalnya bagaimana mahu percaya kerana kerajaan kerap mengubah polisi bila sudah terdesak dan tidak tentu hala? Malah sanggup membatalkan perjanjian royalti kerana geram dan dendam sehingga tercemar imej Petronas dibuatnya.

MENGAPA KHABAR BERTIPU KENCANG?

Menurut Financial Times khabar angin bertiup kencang kerana tiga faktor:

1. pertumbuhan ekonomi dinilai semula (7.5% kepada 6%) kerana merosot.
2. hutang sektor awam meningkat (6% kepada 25% dari KDNK menurut S&P)
3. rezab antarabangsa susut ($28.7 kepada $27.2 bilion). Ini bersamaan dengan 4 bulan impot - menghampiri standard minima antarabangsa 3 bulan impot.
   

Kerajaan mengenakan kawalan modal dan matawang untuk mengelakkan dana keluar kerana ketidak tentuan harga ringgit satu ketika dulu. Ini untuk mengelakkan kesan globalisasi menghanyutkan Malaysia. Banyak pelabur terperangkap bila ia dikuat kuasakan serta merta.

Tetapi kesihatan politik lebih memainkan peranan dalam menentukan perubahan nilai ringgit, menurut Barclays Capital. Inilah yang menyebabkan ketidak-tentuan dan keresahan pelabur berterusan.

FAKTOR POLITIK MENJADI PENENTU

Jika kerajaan mengubah nilai ringgit, dua syarikat gergasi yang kuat jaringan politik - Tenaga dan Telekom akan terjejas kerana ia meminjam dalam bentuk dolar A.S. Sebab itulah saham kedua syarikat 'bluechip' ini merana beberapa hari kebelakangan ini sehingga meragam indeks komposit BSKL dibuatnya. Kesakitan syarikat besar ini akan menyebabkan meningkatnya perbelanjaan pengguna dan mereka mula resah apa mahu jadi dengan ekonomi negara. Apa yang dinyatakan oleh pembangkang selama ini ada benarnya dan Mahathir telah merosakkan negara.

Maybank turut terjejas kerana ekonomi yang melembab akan menimbulkan masalah NPL manakala kolateral pinjaman dalam bentuk saham akan mengurangkan keuntungan. Ketiga-tiga syarikat gergasi ini menyumbang peratus tinggi dalam indeks BSKL.

KOMEN

Kita tidak akan dapat lari dari arus globalisasi dunia. Sedikit sebanyak kita akan terjejas juga. Masalah kini amat kronik kerana dua negara penting yang berdagang dan melabur dalam Malaysia - Amerika dan Jepun - sedang meleset.

Indeks NASDAQ dan Dow Jones sudahpun memecahkan beberapa rekod terendah - ini membayangkan krisis akan berlanjutan sehingga penghujung tahun. Banyak kilang di Malaysia bersifat 'contract manufacturing' atau mengilang mengikut kontrek permintaan. Ini bermakna bahang atau gelombang kemusnahan akan tiba dalam beberapa bulan yang akan datang.

Jepun menghadapi masalah yang kronik juga. Mori sudah angkat tangan dan mahu meletak jawatan. Krisis politik dan ekonomi melanda Jepun mengambil masa yang panjang juga kerana hutang lapuk menimbun banyaknya dan penyangak negara sudah menular jauh ke dalam jaringan politik Jepun. Bayangkan seorang presiden banknya membunuh diri kerana di situlah terletak keperwiraan sebenar ala samurai daripada bersekongkol dengan penyangak untuk menutup kebusukan.

-TJr Kapal Berita-

Fortune

Suicide in Osaka (portion)

Tadayo Honma was one of Japan's most respected bankers. Then he took a job running one of Japan's most troubled banks (Nippon Credit Bank). Two weeks later he took his life.

Late last summer, to hear his friends and former colleagues tell it, Honma looked around and saw that the only way to save the bank he would soon be running was painful and controversial. To emerge from bankruptcy under new owners, Nippon Credit had struck an extraordinary deal: If debtors on its books continued to go bust, the bank could seek reimbursement from the government--in other words, from Japanese taxpayers already fed up with bailing out their country's hapless banks. The problem would weigh heavily on Honma as he searched, fruitlessly, for an honorable way out.

As the country's economic slump grinds on and bankruptcies mount, it's not surprising that the number of suicides is increasing too. In the United States about 23 working-age men per 100,000 kill themselves each year. In Japan the number is 38, and since 1990 it has risen by 75%.

-Bill Powell-

Rencana Rujukkan

The Asian Wall Street Journal
12th April 2001

Shrinking Reserves Could Force
Malaysia to Re-Peg the Ringgit

By LESLIE LOPEZ
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia -- In 1998, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad announced capital controls to protect the Malaysian economy from the whiplash effect of financial globalization. Now, Malaysia is learning that -- controls or not -- its fate remains tied to international markets.

Two weeks ago, Kuala Lumpur acknowledged that growth will slip below the 7% expansion it projected for 2001, mainly because of the U.S. economic slowdown's impact on Malaysian exports. Independent economists predict inflation-adjusted growth could ebb to 3% or 4% this year from 8.5% in 2000.

What's more, some private economists and currency traders say Malaysia's fixed-exchange rate regime -- the foundation of Dr. Mahathir's capital controls policy -- is under threat. With the ringgit pegged at 3.80 to the dollar, the recent weakening of the yen and other Asian currencies is eroding the competitiveness of Malaysian exports. Should this trend persist, some analysts believe Malaysia will be forced to re-peg the ringgit or otherwise allow the currency to depreciate.

Signs of Capital Flight

On Monday, pressure mounted on the ringgit peg when the central bank, Bank Negara, disclosed that Malaysia's international reserves at March 31 had fallen 4% to $27.81 billion from $28.99 at end of February. Malaysia's reserves peaked at $34.5 billion in June, but have eroded steadily since. Economists attribute the decline, in part, to capital flight.

"It really is a one way bet because no one expects an upward revaluation in the ringgit," says a regional currency strategist in the Singapore office of a Japanese bank, echoing a widely held view among traders. "If the yen and other currencies weaken substantially, the ringgit could dip by 10%. But if the markets stay stable, then the ringgit stays at 3.80."

[Note: Mahathir Unveils Fiscal Plan Aimed at Bolstering Malaysia (March 28)]

Such views are gaining converts among foreign investors who have been dumping shares on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Since early last week, the benchmark composite index has declined more than 11%, closing at 567.88 points on Wednesday. The index is down almost 23% from this year's high of 736.74 in mid-February.

Malaysian policy makers dismiss talk of re-pegging the ringgit, arguing that the country's economic fundamentals remain strong. Bank Negara Gov. Zeti Akhtar Aziz says adjusting the peg downward against the dollar would only create uncertainty and wouldn't encourage domestic industries to strive for productivity gains. "In an environment where demand is contracting, it would be unlikely that a 5% to 10% adjustment will bring significant increase to your exports," she says.

'Options Aren't Good'

Some economists who track Malaysia believe that Kuala Lumpur won't rush to re-peg its currency. But they add that maintaining the ringgit at its current level won't be easy should other Asian currencies continue to slide. "The policy options aren't good, but the least bad option is to hold on until it is absolutely necessary to devalue," says Manu Bhaskaran, chief economist with SG Securities in Singapore.

The swoon in international equities markets is bringing into focus the fragility of Malaysia's recovery from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. Some economists have long argued that the Mahathir government didn't use the reprieve afforded by capital controls to vigorously pursue corporate reforms and weed out inefficient companies. Instead, they say, Malaysia was lulled into complacency by a U.S.-driven export boom, which helped growth rebound quickly. Malaysia has soft-pedaled corporate restructuring, opting to bail out several politically well-connected businesses -- including Malaysian Airline System Bhd. and the troubled telecommunications unit of the Renong Group -- using some public funds to do so.

Such policies haven't been well received by investors in Malaysia's stock market. Now, with currency concerns stoking more selling, economists and bankers say that the weakening market could further delay the already slow pace of corporate debt restructuring. The possible impact: a fresh wave of nonperforming loans for the country's banks.

To be sure, Malaysia's financial sector, which has been consolidated and recapitalized since 1997, is in better shape today than it was before the regional crisis. But a slumping stock market has made the nation's banks reluctant to lend, further crimping private-sector growth.

Taking the Lead

Faced with this prospect, the Malaysian government plans to take the lead in fueling economic growth. Two weeks ago, Dr. Mahathir announced a 3 billion ringgit ($789 million) fiscal stimulus package aimed at cushioning Malaysia against the U.S. slowdown.

But Kuala Lumpur's intervention hasn't changed the negative sentiment. Last week, Standard & Poor's Ratings Group revised its outlook on Malaysia's long-term foreign currency rating to stable from positive citing concerns over a widening fiscal deficit, political uncertainty and Malaysia's highly centralized decision-making system.

Shrinking foreign reserves have added to the economic worries. At the end of March, the central bank held enough reserves to finance about four months of imports. But the 4% decline from February is the largest single-month drop since reserves began to diminish in mid-2000.

Central bank Gov. Zeti blames the latest decline on increased overseas investments by Malaysian companies, the repayment of foreign loans, and some revaluation losses in a portion of the reserves held in currencies that have depreciated against the ringgit. (Because it is pegged to the dollar, the ringgit has appreciated about 8.4% against the yen, 2.2% against the Singapore dollar, 5.9% against the rupiah, 2.7% against the baht and 4.4% against the won since Jan. 2.)

Export Expectations

Still, currency traders say the steady decline in reserves may prompt more Malaysians to abandon the ringgit and find ways to move capital out of the country. Exporters -- who have been slow in repatriating earnings, bankers say -- are more likely to hold revenues denominated in foreign currency abroad if they suspect a devaluation of the ringgit is coming.

But is a devaluation coming?

Some economists, like Mr. Bhaskaran of SG Securities, say there are strong arguments why Malaysia should put off any devaluation for as long as it can. For starters, altering the ringgit peg now could be seen as an overreaction to the uncertainties in Asian currency markets. "The other question is how much do you devalue," says an economist at an international bank based in Singapore, who notes that if Asian currencies continued to slide, Malaysia might be forced to adjust the currency peg more than once.

Other economists say the key indicator to watch will be international reserves. Should Malaysia's reserves fall below $25 billion -- enough to finance just over three months of retained imports -- Kuala Lumpur will have no choice but to re-peg the ringgit to stamp out capital flight, these economists argue.

But there is a third group of analysts that believes devaluation should take place sooner rather than later. "It's better to do it now and not when capital has already fled the country," says a chief currency trader with a foreign bank in Kuala Lumpur.

Central bank Gov. Zeti says Malaysia hasn't any fixed formula -- or line in the sand -- for determining when to adjust its currency peg. "We don't go by lines," she says. "Life is not so straight forward. It is very complex."

Write to Leslie Lopez at leslie.lopez@awsj.com.

http://interactive.wsj.com/

The Financial Times, UK
12th April 2001

Malaysia insists no new peg for ringgit

By Sheila McNulty

Malaysians have been lining up at money changers and banks in recent days, exchanging ringgit for US dollars on expectations that the fixed exchange rate will be adjusted, or even dropped.

The authorities have issued repeated denials. "There is no reason for anybody to speculate that the government should re-peg the ringgit," said Rafidah Aziz, minister of international trade and industry. "I hope the people and investors believe the government and not the analysts."

Rumours circulating among analysts that the currency regime will be changed have arisen in response to downward revisions in economic growth projections, rising public sector debt and a fall in international reserves. Some advocate adjusting the peg or returning to a floating exchange rate to maintain competitiveness with other currencies in the region, which have been weakening against the US dollar.

"The ringgit peg is exaggerating the external shock faced by Malaysia since it runs the risk of an overvalued exchange rate," Barclays Capital said this week.

The ringgit has been fixed at M$3.8 to the US dollar since September 1998, when Malaysia shocked the global financial community by withdrawing the currency from international circulation. The authorities wanted to stop the heavy outflow of funds, started by the regional financial crisis that began in mid-1997, and end the daily uncertainty about where the currency was headed. Their longer term goal was to shield the economy from continued volatility in global markets.

At the time, the authorities had denied the ringgit would be fixed, which has meant that many Malaysians now ignore the latest string of denials. But if official protestations stop, analysts suspect even more Malaysians will turn in their ringgit.

"Bank Negara (the central bank) has to keep coming out to say, 'No, there will not be any re-pegging'," says Gan Kim Khoon, research head at Arab Malaysian Securities. "Otherwise people will speculate even more."

Malaysians are eager to hedge their bets because any change would lead to a weakening in value, possibly close to M$4.20 to the US dollar. So if Malaysians then trade back in their US dollars for ringgit, they could make a significant profit.

Bank Negara issued a statement this week saying competitive devaluation of currencies will not bring any significant gains for Malaysia, but instead lead to higher costs and a destabilised environment. "Uncertainty and volatility of the exchange rate will be highly destabilising and will not provide a conducive environment for trade and investment," it said. "The stability of the exchange rate is, therefore, vital to a country such as Malaysia."

While many analysts agree with that assessment, they suspect something will have to give. The government recently revised down its economic growth forecast for the year to 6 per cent, from 7.5 per cent. Some private economists are predicting even slower growth. In addition, Bank Negara's net international reserves were US$27.2bn at the end of March, compared with US$28.7bn on March 15. That still is equivalent to four months of imports, approaching the internationally accepted minimum of three months cover.

Meanwhile, says Standard & Poor's, the financial analysts, "off-budget bailouts" have added to fiscal pressures and net public sector debt is estimated to reach 25 per cent of gross domestic product this year compared with 6 per cent in 1993. "In the absence of deep-rooted corporate restructuring, capital leakage likely will grow, while foreign interest continues to wane."

Barclays Capital, the investment bank, says the ringgit peg is constraining policy options. "Unfortunately, politics will play a role in determining Malaysian foreign exchange policy," it said. "In the eyes of many foreign investors, this adds an unpredictability that may continue to hurt sentiment in Malaysia."

If Malaysia were to adjust the peg now, analysts say it would hurt politically linked companies with US dollar denominated debt, such as Tenaga, the national power utility, and Telekom Malaysia, the former monopoly telecommunications provider. It also would force up import costs, which would impinge on the purchasing power of Malaysians at a time when the ruling party already is losing ground to the opposition. And it would only add to the general sense of insecurity, led by concerns over where the economy and Mahathir Mohamad, the prime minister of 20 years, are headed.

Mr Gan doubts the authorities will adjust the peg, which would eliminate the main source of predictability and certainty to doing business in Malaysia. If they did, he says, people will ask: "When is the next re-pegging and to what level?"

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