STS: Pengekspot Mula Komplen Secara Terbuka

Pengekspot tempatan mula bising mahu kerajaan menilai semula ringgit secara terbuka. Nilai matawang serantau yang lebih rendah menyebabkan negara jiran seperti Thailand dan Indonesia sudah mengikis pasaran pengusaha tempatan. Jika ringit tidak diubah, keuntungan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan terus melembab.

"Ringgit sudah terlebih nilai - ia harus diperbetulkan," kata En P. Subee Subramaniam, naib presiden syarikat Premium Vegetable Oils.

Mahathir perlu memilih antara merangsang pertumbuhan atau menyangga matawang. Ekspot sedang menurun, pertumbuhan melembab dan rezab antarabangsa sedang menyusut - ini semua tidak menyokong ringgit.

Sewaktu Mahathir mengenakan kawalan matawang dulu nilai negara serantau sedang meninggi (Menaik: Baht 9.4%, Rupiah 24%) tetapi sekarang ia lebih rendah (Menurun: Baht 17%, Rupiah 33%).

Para pengekspot bimbang bencana yang bakal menimpa nanti. Pengerusi FMM mencadangkan nilai matawang yang fleksibel.

Bank Negara kini terpaksa memutuskan kumpulan manakah yang lebih penting kepada ekonomi - pengekspot ataupun pengimpot. -- Bloomberg

BTS: Rizab Susut Lagi

Rizab antarabangsa Malaysia jatuh sebanyak US$900 juta (S$1.63 billion) dalam 2 minggu pertama bulan ini kepada US$26.29 bilion berikutan penghijrahan potfolio - demikian lapuran Bank Negara Isnin lepas.

Bank Negara juga menyebut jumlah bersih dana asing keluar berjumlah US$176 juta pada suku pertengahan April.

Star: IMF - Dunia Memasuki Zon Kritikal

Menurut IMF, kelembapan ekonomi Amerika yang berterusan bermakna ekonomi global sedang memasuki 'fasa kritikal' dimana polisi dan koordinasi antara negara-negara memainkan peranan penting. Tanpa strategi yang cekap negara akan terhumban. Terdapat kebimbangan kemelesetan ekonomi Amerika akan memecahkan rekod 10 tahun perkembangannya.

KOMEN

Menteri Kewangan perlu mengesahkan beberapa langkah strategik untuk menghadapi krisis ekonomi kali ini. Tetapi Daim dikatakan sedang bercuti dalam diam-diam (lebih seminggu baru diketahui) dan kebanyakkan rancangan pemulihan muncul dan dibentang oleh Mahathir sendiri.

Apa yang menarik pakej merangsang baru-baru ini diumumkan di luar parlimen dan OPP3 dibentang di parlimen dengan lapurannya lambat diedarkan kepada MP. Kelihatan seperti Daim 'berbalah' dengan Mahathir sehingga begini jadinya.

Perhatikan politik dunia juga bergolak ekoran krisis ekonomi dunia. Ia menghumban sesiapa sahaja yang disangsikan oleh rakyat walaupun menang pilihanraya sebelumnya. Arus ini terus mengalir tanpa hentinya dan selalu mengejutkan kita dengan tiba-tiba. Begitu juga dengan Mahathir agaknya. Kita ramalkan beliau jatuh tiba-tiba juga kerana kilang menggaji ribuan pekerja yang merupakan rakyat dan pengundi juga.

Sewaktu berita ini ditulis, Estrada telahpun ditangkap dan Indonesia sedang bergolak kerana Gus Dur akan dihadapkan ke tribunal rasuah. Jepun pula baru mendapat Perdana Menterinya yang baru, En Koizumi, seorang yang cuba mereformasikan ekonomi Jepun dengan langkah-langkah drastik.

-Terjemah Ringkas Kapal Berita-

The Singapore Straits Times
25th April 2001

KL exporters urge the govt to drop ringgit peg

Strong currency is hurting their sales and Indonesian and Thai rivals are gaining market share at their expense

KUALA LUMPUR - Malaysian exporters are calling for the government to abandon the ringgit's three-year peg to the US dollar, a public display rare for a country where the same political party has held power for four decades.

'The ringgit is overvalued - it needs to be corrected,' said Mr P. Subee Subramaniam, vice-president of Premium Vegetable Oils.

A slide in other Asian currencies means Thai and Indonesian rivals are cutting prices and 'eating up our market share'.

Such proposals may be thwarted by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who adopted the peg in 1998 after accusing foreign investors of undermining Asian currencies for profit.

Exporters say that unless the peg is removed, profits and economic growth will slow.

Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir says the currency is not overvalued and the stability it offers is good for business.

Economists are split evenly as to whether Malaysia will devalue the ringgit or allow it to trade freely.

Of 15 economists surveyed, eight said Malaysia would be forced to drop the peg in the next two years.

In the end, Dr Mahathir may have to choose between stimulating growth and propping up the exchange rate regime.

Exports are falling, growth is slowing and foreign currency reserves are dwindling - all undermining support for the peg.

The government is hanging tough for now.

'The 1997 crisis highlights the damage that currency depreciation can do to an economy,' central bank governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said earlier after announcing a decline in Malaysia's foreign reserves.

Memories of the crisis remain vivid.

Asia fell victim to recession after Thailand set off a wave of competitive devaluations. As currencies plunged and economies shrank, Thailand and other countries turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for aid.

Dr Mahathir, blaming speculators such as financier George Soros, shunned the IMF and its free-market economic medicine.

Instead, he pegged the ringgit at 3.8 to the dollar, down 34 per cent from its pre-crisis level, and imposed limits on external capital flows.

In the six months after the peg was adopted, the Thai baht gained 9.4 per cent against the US dollar and the Indonesian rupiah jumped 24 per cent.

That allowed Malaysian exporters of computer chips, disk drives and textiles to keep their prices low.

But the tables have turned. In the past year, the baht has fallen nearly 17 per cent and the rupiah has dropped 33 per cent.

Exporters fear the worst is yet to come.

'We should consider a flexible peg,' said Mr O.K. Lee, chairman of the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers in Penang.

'The central bank has to decide which group is more important to the economy - exporters or importers.' --Bloomberg News

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg

The Business Times, Singapore
25th April 2001

KL's int'l reserves fall US$900m in April 1-14

MALAYSIA'S international reserves fell by US$900 million (S$1.63 billion) in the first two weeks of this month to US$26.29 billion on portfolio fund outflows, the central bank said on Monday.

The central Bank Negara said in a statement that net outflow of foreign funds amounted to US$176 million in the first half of April.

But Bank Negara governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz, speaking at a fund managers conference, said net inflows of funds led to an improvement in international reserves in the third week of April.

'Positive developments in the third week, however, have led to an improvement in the flow of international reserves,' Ms Zeti said.

But she did not give any foreign exchange reserves data for the third week of April.

Ms Zeti said the markets had overreacted to the unstable external and domestic conditions in the first half of April.

Malaysia's reserves fell US$1.81 billion in March to US$27.18 billion, enough to cover 4 1/2 months of imports.

The sharp fall in reserves, together with a weak yen and sliding regional currencies, had stoked speculation in the markets that Malaysia may devalue its ringgit currency, which has been pegged at 3.8 to the US dollar since September 1998. 'Continued erosion will threaten the ability of Malaysia to maintain the ringgit peg at 3.8 versus the US dollar,' market consultants Standard & Poor's MMS said in a report.

But the central bank has said Malaysia would gain nothing from depreciating its currency right now.

Ms Zeti reiterated the central bank's stance again on Monday. 'Currently, the exchange rate is assessed to be at fair value. It would not bring any advantage to Malaysia to depreciate the currency to reap temporary pricing advantages,' she said. - Reuters

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg

http://www.thestar.com.my/services/printerfriendly.asp? file=/2001/4/25/latest/512IMFseesg.asp&sec=latest

thestar.com.my

Wednesday, April 25, 2001

IMF sees global economy entering critical period

WASHINGTON (AP) - The dramatic economic slowdown in the United States means the global economy has entered a ''critical phase'' where policy coordination between nations will be especially important, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

Managing Director Horst Koehler said a key issue for the spring meetings of the 183-nation IMF and its sister lending agency, the World Bank, will be to demonstrate that growth-oriented policies are being pursued in the major industrial countries as well as developing nations.

''I have no doubt that with the right policy response the global economy will recover in the latter part of this year,'' Koehler said in an interview with a small group of reporters.

The IMF has reduced its forecast for this year based on the fact that growth in the United States, the world's biggest economy, has slowed so sharply. This has raised fears that a U.S. recession could end a record 10-year long economic expansion.

''It must be the objective of this meeting and beyond this meeting to keep the global economy on track,'' Koehler said. He said without a growth strategy in place, it will be ''much more difficult for countries like Indonesia, like Turkey and Argentina to come out of the mess.''

The IMF is considering requests for emergency loans to help those three nations stabilize economies that are currently in turmoil.

Koehler said he believed it was important not to become overly pessimistic.

''We feel it's appropriate not to paint everything in negative terms,'' Koehler said. He noted that while overall economic growth has slowed in the United States, consumer spending, including demand for autos and houses, has held up reasonably well.

Koehler praised the decision by the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut U.S. interest rates beginning in January and supported President George W. Bush's effort to cut taxes. He said such a reduction should ''build confidence with consumers.''

Koehler was critical, however, of the action by the European Central Bank, which earlier this month declined to cut interest rates for the 12 European nations that share a common currency, the euro. ECB President Wim Duisenberg had argued that it was too soon to cut European interest rates because that region is not threatened with a recession.

Koehler also said he believed authorities in Japan, which is going through another change in prime ministers, will have to be much more forceful in overhauling its troubled banking sector in order to return the world's second largest economy to sustained growth.

Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said the Bush administration recognized the importance of the IMF, but he said there was a need to devote more efforts to preventing financial crises before they occur.

Koehler said he had established a good working relationship with O'Neill and he believed that the new Bush team was learning that the IMF began a number of changes in response to criticism of its handling of the 1997-98 Asian crisis.

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