Jika Mahathir amat kuat dia tidak akan terdesak menggunakan ISA. Bagi pelabur dan pemerhati politik ini adalah petanda bahawa kerajaan yang ada tidaklah sekuat mana. Ia sudah resah dengan kebangkitan rakyat yang menjadi-jadi di sekitar rantau ini. (Estrada sudah pun ditahan dan akan dibicarakan. Gus Dur pula akan menghadapi pertuduhan skandal seperti Bulog Gate dan Brunei Gate. Manakala Thaksin yang kaya itu mungkin akan dibedah siasat juga.) Sudah tentu kerana kerajaan Mahathir merasa bersalah sehingga cemas dan bertindak di luar peri kemanusiaan ini.

Lonjakkan BSKL selepas pengumuman penghapusan levi tidak boleh dijadikan ukuran ia mampu menghidupkan ekonomi. Kebanyakkan pemain di situ mungkin pelabur dalam negara - bukannya luar. Pelabur luar lebih memikirkan faktor asas lain yang lebih penting. Tindakkan kerajaan itu adalah langkah terdesak kerana sudah terhenyak teruk rezab negara. Ada banyak faktor lain yang dijadikan ukuran sebelum pelabur berhasrat untuk menunjukkan muka:

1. Ketidak tentuan politik kerana krisis Daim-Mahathir yang amat samar dari mula sehingga pelabur menjadi terteka serta bom politik sakit Anwar yang masih tidak dapat dirungkai kerana doktor lain (doktor politik) yang lebih memandai. Dipercayai banyak pemimpin Umno sendiri cuma berpura-pura sahaja menyokong Mahathir sebab itulah dia menambah kabinet dengan orang yang betul-betul diyakini setia padanya. Dengan kata lain Mahathir dikelilingi oleh penyokong atas pagar sahaja.
   

2. Sikap Mahathir yang anti orang lain sahaja bila kemenangan tidak berpihak di tangannya. Malah dia akan menemui Castro lagi di saat Amerika amat membenci diktator ini. Amerika adalah kunci ekspot utama Malaysia dan tindakkan menemui Castro adalah langkah yang dungu yang akan membuat pelabur menggeleng kepala.
   

3. Levi dihapus kerana sudah terdesak - bukan kerana sukarela.
   

4. Masalah 'wang panas' atau pelaburan jangka pendek tidaklah begitu mengancam mana - tetapi rezab negara itu yang lebih bahaya.
   

5. Kejatuhan rezab negara yang amat tinggi sejak awal tahun ini. Sudah RM14 bilion dana asing keluar sejak 12 bulan lepas. Pada dua minggu pertama bulan lepas sejumlah $USD 900 juta rezab itu menurun. Ini adalah bom ekonomi yang amat ditakuti kerana kita akan terpaksa 'menyerah diri' jika ia semakin susut lagi. Dana dalam negara tidak akan mencukupi kerana ia sudah pun ditebuk untuk menjadi saham di dalam syarikat kroni. Jika dana terkumpul di dalam bank diusik alamat habislah duit yang kita kumpul selama ini kerana bank bumiputra pun sudah terpelangkup dikerjakan oleh kroni.
   

   Jika rezab tersebut turun di bawah paras USD $25 bilion (3.5 bulan impot), kadar faedah dijangka akan naik dan kawalan matawang terpaksa juga diundurkan. Ekonomi akan berkecamuk ketika ini.
   

6. Ringgit yang tidak kompetetif atau mahal menyebabkan sukar mengekspot barangan kerana terlalu mahal berbanding saingan serantau. Menurut pakar (strategis) matawang - ringgit akan tergugat jika kadar USD/Yen mencecah paras 135 atau nilai 50 unit Baht setara sedolar Amerika.
   
   

7. Jurang dagangan yang makin menyempit - impot bertambah tetapi ekspot berkurang.
   
   

8. Meningkatnya hutang lapuk (NPL)
   
   

9. Faktor luaran yang melemah (Ekspot berkurang kerana rakan dagang besar negara, A.S. sedang meleset manakala Jepun baru mendapat PM baru yang mungkin mengambil langkah drastik termasuk menjual murah gila - jika tidak sinar negara China akan memadam ekonominya.) Negara China kini sudah menyerap hampir 71% semua FDI di Asia Timur.
   

10. Kawalan matawang lebih bersifat untuk kepentingan politik yang melebihi kepentingan ekonomi.
    
    

Pendek kata ekonomi kita tidaklah sesihat mana. Ia sudah sakit kerana kedegilan Mahathir sekian lama. Kerajaan amat lambat bertindak untuk membaiki ketika hujan ribut agak reda. Malah ia membaiki kroni terlebih dahulu dari semua dan tidak mengikuti nasihat pakar ekonomi seperti Krugman bahawa kawalan cumalah mampu bertahan sementara.

Apa yang menarik di sini ekonomi seperti sakit untuk lumpuh seiring seperti Anwar. Pendapat pakar seperti Hoogland tidak diambil kira sedangkan beliau paling layak dari semua untuk menyelesaikan penyakit Anwar kerana itu memang bidangnya.

Ini semua terjadi kerana sikap dan kedegilan Dr Mahathir. Dia telah melancar dua bom besar yang akan menghuru-harakan negara. Daim nampaknya sudah dapat membaca kesemuanya sehingga dia lari jauh tanpa memberitahu sesiapa di mana dia bersembunyi sebenarnya.

Kedua-dua bom ini lebih berbahaya dari bom angkatan tentera kerana ilmu yang dipelajari dulu tidak akan berguna melainkan merosakkan lagi negara. Sepatutnya Mahathir ditangkap di bawah akta ISA kerana menggugat keselamatan negara. Jika tidak bersedialah untuk menjadi mangsa ledakkan dan menderita yang tidak akan dapat dirawat lagi walaupun oleh sebarang pakar antarabangsa .... (mati)

Saya ingin mengajak pembaca mengimbau bagaimana penyakit JE menyerang mangsa yang dulunya segar bugar sahaja. Mereka menjadi koma dan akhirnya mati dengan doktor tidak dapat berbuat apa-apa. Apabila dibedah di dapati isi perut mereka sudah musnah sama sekali begitu juga sistem saraf mereka. Kuman itu menyerang bahagian terpenting manusia. Kita seharusnya telah lama menginsafi diri dan membaiki negara kita malangnya kita masih berdiam diri kerana merasa tidak tergugat apa-apa padahal isi perut negara dan kunci nyawa untuk negara hidup sedang mereput dengan dahsyatnya dalam diam-diam juga.

-Ringkasan/Rumusan oleh Kapal Berita-

The Financial Times, UK
4th May 2001

Malaysian turmoil undermines finance sweeteners

By Sheila McNulty

Malaysia's decision this week to abolish the remaining restriction on foreign portfolio flows imposed during the regional financial crisis is not thought likely to bring an early revival in foreign investment.

"In deciding to come back to Malaysia, this is one factor," says Gan Kim Khoon, research head at Arab Malaysian Securities. "There are others: corporate governance, politics, the ringgit peg and the value of the market."

While analysts have long questioned how fully Malaysia has grasped the corporate governance lessons of the crisis, the value of the fixed exchange rate and where valuations should be, the politics now seem to have everyone's attention.

In the past few weeks, the government has arrested a human rights activist and nine opposition supporters under draconian laws permitting indefinite detention without trial.

These are the same laws originally used against Anwar Ibrahim, the ousted and jailed former deputy prime minister, who has since galvanised an unprecedented opposition to the 20-year reign of Mahathir Mohamad, the prime minister.

His critics believe Dr Mahathir supports the arrests to curb the opposition's growing influence.

"He is really concerned that he has not been able to recover lost ground, and that must worry him because he has tried everything," says Chandra Muzaffar, political scientist turned opposition politician. "Now he has resorted to the ultimate law, the most obnoxious weapon in the state's arsenal."

The authorities insist that those detained were a threat to national security: they had planned to overthrow the government. But even the government-created Human Rights Commission regretted the use of the Internal Security Act, saying detention without trail was a violation of human rights. Dr Mahathir retorted: "The rights of the majority to trade, to live in a stable environment without pressure, without riots. These are human rights too."

At a time of slowdown in an economy still fragile following the crisis that began in 1997, observers ask whether Dr Mahathir is becoming increasingly isolated in supporting such measures.

Daim Zainuddin, the finance minister and most trusted lieutenant of Dr Mahathir, has gone on an extended leave. Many suspect this could be the prelude to resignation at a time when other cabinet members are said to be distancing themselves from the prime minister. Amid these concerns, Dr Mahathir's most prominent son, Mokhzani Mahathir, announced the sale of all his shares in companies listed on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange to put an end to allegations that he had profited from his links to his father.

"There are efforts to attack my father through me and I don't want that to happen," Mr Mokhzani told reporters.

But this may not help Dr Mahathir. Recent by-elections indicate that he has been losing support ever since the 1998 ousting of Mr Anwar and his subsequent conviction of sexual offences and abusing his power to conceal them. Jailed for 15 years, he insists he is the innocent victim of a plot to keep him from unseating Dr Mahathir.

Dr Mahathir has tried a number of ways to woo back supporters - everything from warning of instability if the ruling party is forced out to trying to appear conciliatory toward the opposition in offering to hold unity talks.

"I don't think he has any more bunnies in the bag that he can pull out," says Victor Savage, co-ordinator of the South-East Asian Studies Programme at the National University of Singapore.

Though analysts believe the abolition of the 10 per cent capital gains tax on repatriated foreign investments, in addition to measures announced yesterday to ease some restrictions on foreign ownership in the property market, were aimed at being "bunnies" to off-set the negatives, they do not believe they are enough.

The government is predicting 5-6 per cent growth this year because of the slowdown in exports to the US, a key market. Analysts predict growth will be hit further by an inability to maintain a competitive currency due to the fixed exchange rate. Zeti Akhtar Aziz, governor of Bank Negara, the central bank, insists: "The underlying economic conditions in the country are sound."

There are positives: Malaysia has a robust current account surplus, low levels of external debt, a high savings rate, a strong fiscal position and full employment. But confidence in the country is slipping.

Kostas Panagiotou, senior economist at Kim Eng Securities, notes that worries about the viability of the ringgit peg keep funds away from the stock market while the size of monthly capital outflows is now larger than that of the Asian crisis. Ordinary Malaysians are starting to fear for their future amid concerns about the economic and political uncertainties.

"These things slide so quickly," Mr Savage says. "If you've got a foundation that is so very shaky, the slightest major storm is likely to bring the whole house down."

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/
www.ft.com

The Business Times, Singapore
4th May 2001

Foreign funds give Malaysia a wide berth: analysts

KLSE rally following scrapping of exit levy fizzles out

By Eddie Toh in Kuala Lumpur

THE Malaysian market rally following the scrapping of the exit levy fizzled out yesterday on the lack of foreign participation.

The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index eased 4.76 points to 606.66 points after Wednesday's sparkling performance when the market barometer jumped 4.6 per cent following the government's move to scrap the 10 per cent exit levy on the repatriation of funds from the sale of equities within one year.

However, analysts suspect that the bulk of the buying orders came from local players as foreign orders were markedly absent.

In a note yesterday, OSK Research said: 'We expect the market to fall back in the near term as we doubt that foreign buying interest was the main driving force behind the surge on Wednesday, as these group of investors would be more concerned about the fundamentals of the country, which we may add has not changed overnight.'

It cited lingering concerns such as the economic slowdown, falling reserves, the competitiveness of the Malaysian currency, the weak external sector, slower loans growth and rising non-performing loans.

'Thus, although foreigners will be encouraged to enter our market as there would be less administrative hassle, we doubt that the mere removal of the exit tax would result in foreign money flowing into the stock market,' it added.

The Malaysian government had imposed capital controls - the fixing of the value of the ringgit and barriers to stem the outflow of short-term funds in the stock market - to shield the country at the height of the regional financial crisis in 1998.

While the government has been steadfast in keeping the currency fixed at RM3.80 to the greenback, it has gradually rolled back curbs in the stock market in an effort to placate foreign investors.

Analysts said the government is now more concerned with the continued drain of foreign portfolio funds rather than the return of hot money. The levy and its predecessor - a 12-month freeze on the repatriation of funds - were designed to stabilise the country from flows of short-term funds.

'Perhaps the authorities have noted that foreign portfolio outflows have dwindled to low levels and there is little need to worry about the hot money effect,' said Franklin Tan, head of research of OCBC Securities in Malaysia.

Analysts said Malaysia's reserves and the ringgit will come under further pressure if foreign fund managers continue to snub Malaysia. They have repatriated over RM14 billion (S$6.7 billion) in the last 12 months, a move that has contributed to the erosion of the country's reserves to US$27 billion from its peak of US$34 billion.

Apart from tumbling reserves, some economists feel the ringgit is now overvalued, making it more difficult for the country to sell its goods overseas.

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg