FIKIRAN MAHATHIR YANG ASYIK BERTUKAR

Mahathir nampaknya tidak menyabar mengubah polisi ekonomi sejak Daim bercuti. Malah dia juga sudah tidak sabar melihat pemimpin keADILan dan aktivis reformasi semakin popular di kalangan rakyat saban hari sehingga terdesak menggunakan ISA dengan tuduhan yang mengaibkan lagi. Daim seperti sudah dapat mencium dia bakal menjadi sasaran aib Mahathir yang seterusnya sebab itulah dia bercuti ke Amerika tanpa memberitahu sesiapa dimana termasuk iparnya yang berkhidmat di sana. ISA buat aktivis reformasi mungkin mengena pemimpin Umno juga kerana Mahathir sendiri sudah mengatakannya. Mengapa tidak Dollah menyebutnya?

SEKTOR HARTANAH SUDAH MENGGELEPAR

Dengan penghapusan levi dan penukaran syarat pemilikkan hartanah oleh pelabur luar Mahathir seperti tidak dapat berfikir dengan betul apakah orang asing itu musuh atau kawan negara. Dulu dia mencela mereka merosakkan negara sekarang dia mahu memujuk mereka kemari pula kerana sektor hartanah sudah tidak laku (RM30 bilion terkapai) dan ekonomi kini sudah menuju tenat jadinya.

Pakej rangsangan RM3 bilion juga menyasarkan sektor hartanah tetapi ia ternyata tidak berkesan kerana keadaan bursa saham yang masih meragam menjunam menyukarkan penyusunan semula syarikat yang terlibat dalam sektor itu. Polisi terdahulu telah menyebabkan pelabur meminjam nama bumiputra atau menyogok mereka untuk membeli harta.

SESIAPA SAHAJA AKAN TERBAKAR

Ini semua membayangkan sikap dan polisi Mahathir tidak menentu dan bertukar bila-bila masa bila terdesak. Dia kerap melakukan tindakkan drastik (mengaibkan Anwar, penangkapan ISA, kawalan modal dll) yang lebih mementingkan dirinya sendiri melebihi orang lain. Akibatnya pelabur terbakar dan tidak dapat keluar kerana pintu telah dikunci tiba-tiba. Sekarang rezab negara sedang menggelongsor sehingga menjejaskan kadar ringgit. Dalam keadaan yang terdesak Mahathir mungkin akan menilai semula ringgit - walaupun dia berkeras menafikannya. Pelabur sudah tidak mempercayai Mahathir - lagipun dia jugalah yang menyebarkan khabar angin bahawa Tenaga akan menguasai Bakun baru-baru ini sehingga menggelabah pengurusan TNB jadinya.

Bagi pemerhati dan analis ekonomi adalah berbahaya untuk bermain di Malaysia kerana syarat boleh bertukar serta-merta dan kata-kata PM sendiri tidak boleh dipercaya. Mungkin lebih baik tunggu dan lihat sahaja atau bermain di tempat lain yang lebih selamat untuk mereka. Mahathir sebenarnya mesra kroni - bukannya mesra pelabur luar. Itulah yang membentuk polisi Malaysia dan itulah sebab Anwar diaib, disakiti dan terbiar. Tetapi yang betul-betul sakit sebenarnya adalah seluruh rakyat Malaysia!

-Ulasan Kapal Berita-

http://livenews.lycosasia.com/cgi-bin/get.pl? pi_news_id=611554&pi_ctry=my&pi_lang=en

FEER(5/17): Shroff - Malaysia Lures Back Foreign Investment

By S. Jayasankaran

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad seems unable to make up his mind whether foreigners are a good thing or not. After the Asian Crisis hit, they were definitely bad -- responsible for preying on the currencies of developing countries -- and their activities needed to be held in check by stringent capital controls.

But the post-crisis vision of a leaner, cleaner Malaysia has taken a long time to materialize. Corporate restructuring is moving ahead so slowly that a casual observer might be forgiven for thinking it has ground to a complete halt. Against a background of moribund property and share prices, the idea of foreign money being allowed to enter Malaysia is looking far more attractive.

On May 2, Mahathir scrapped a 10% capital-gains tax on foreigners who had been in the equity market for less than a year. The next day, he opened up the property market to non-Malaysian investors, who also are allowed to borrow locally to fund purchases.

Senior government officials say the moves are a sign that Mahathir is taking advantage of Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin's two-month leave of absence to wrest back control of the economy. Under normal circumstances, Daim would have announced such a policy change himself. Officials say an increasingly impatient Mahathir pushed the changes through after publicly confirming Daim's leave in mid-April.

Since the imposition of capital controls on September 2, 1998, foreigners have largely ignored Malaysian markets. The stockmarket has generally underperformed the region, while there is an estimated 30 billion ringgit ($7.9 billion) overhang in property stocks.

Kuala Lumpur needs all the help it can get. While the government's stimulus package included 3 billion ringgit in extra public spending, the weak property market has been dragging down companies that couldn't restructure easily because of sluggish stock prices.

Foreigners simply weren't interested. Capital controls spooked them because they implied policy unpredictability. Poor corporate governance and political interference in business decisions compounded the problem. Then there were the fears about the stability of the ringgit, pegged at 3.80 to the U.S. dollar since 1998. Faced with falls in regional currencies, would Malaysia be forced to re-peg the ringgit in order to maintain competitiveness? What about foreign-exchange reserves, which have fallen by 24% to $27 billion since September?

The recent policy changes mean that capital controls now exist only for Malaysians, though the peg remains and offshore ringgit trades are still banned. Kuala Lumpur hopes the policy reversals will entice foreigners to invest in its relatively cheap stock and property markets. If the strategy works, it could reverse capital outflows, increase foreign-exchange reserves and stabilize the ringgit peg.

Economist R. Thillainathan, a finance director at Genting, a gaming, power and property conglomerate, says it makes far more sense to attract foreign funds than to stimulate the economy through extra spending. "This is more market-driven, and allowing foreigners to borrow in ringgit reduces foreign-exchange risk. That could work."

Foreign investors have yet to respond with increased buying of Malaysian shares. "It's too little, too late," says the head of a foreign brokerage firm in Kuala Lumpur. "All my clients say they'll wait and see. They've all been burnt here before."

Property analysts also note that the regulations keep changing. In 1995, the rules were tightened when prices soared, then were relaxed two years later. But the current relaxation in government policy comes after widespread calls across the industry for change, and is long overdue.

The change also removes restrictions on property transactions under the New Economic Policy, an affirmative-action programme aimed at lifting the Malay majority into economic parity with Malaysian Chinese. The policy, which has been in place since 1971, covers everything from university-admission quotas to licences and contracts issued by various government agencies. Ultimately, it aims to give Malays at least 30% control of every sector of the Malaysian economy.

In property, it worked like this: Foreigners couldn't buy property worth more than 250,000 ringgit without at least 30% Malay participation, while domestic investors needed 30% Malay participation for any property above 5 million ringgit. The regulations gave rise to bureaucratic bottlenecks and distortions arising from pseudo-partnerships in which ethnic Malays lent their names, but not money, to property companies in return for directorships or one-off payments.

Now, property worth anything up to 20 million ringgit can be bought by anyone, irrespective of race. "It'll help in getting rid of unsold property," says an ethnic Indian businessman. "Previously, we had to find Malay partners, which is such a hassle that many of us didn't bother."

(END) Dow Jones Newswires 09-05-01