PRESTASI SAHAM MALAYSIA TERTERUK DI RANTAU INI

Makin dungu atau tidak Mahathir menguruskan ekonomi dapat dibaca pada prestasi BSKL mutakhir ini. Pengunduran Mokhzani tidak mampu melonjaknya untuk bertahan lama. Pemergian Daim pun gagal melegakan sakitnya. Prestasi Indeks BSKL kini adalah yang terteruk di rantau ini akibat spekulasi ringgit akan dinilai semula. Malah makin teruk lagi kerana Mahathir menyebar khabar angin Tenaga menguasai Bakun tetapi tidak pula polis menangkapnya. Indeks BSKL mencatat 16% 'YTD loss' atau kerugian dari awal tahun.

KEBIMBANGAN RINGGIT DINILAI SEGALA PUNCA

"Ketakutan yang berterusan ringgit dinilai semula adalah punca pelabur luar menyisihkan diri," kata Yee Yang Chien, seorang ketua kajian di HLG Capital.

Penghapusan levi antara lain bertujuan untuk mengelakkan BSKL merudum ke paras bahaya di bawah paras 500. Manakala polisi baru sektor hartanah diusulkan kerana hampir RM30 bilion terkapai tanpa pembelinya. Sudah tentu yang membinanya termasuk kroni juga yang kini kepupusan dana kerana bank mengejar bunga hutang mereka. Malaysia amat berharap kepada dana luar untuk mengisi rezab negara yang sudah menggelosor turun sebegitu besar.

Kerajaan dulunya mengatakan kemelesetan ekonomi A.S. tidak akan menggugat ekonomi negara sebanyak mana - sekarang baru ia tahu dan mula mencari formula baru. Tetapi semuanya sia-sia belaka. Kita sebenarnya amat bergantung kepada ekspot elektronik yang menyumbang kira-kira 60% ekspot negara. Dan Amerika merupakan rakan dagang yang besar dalam sektor ini kerana ia menyerap 21% ekspot Malaysia.

Menurut analis Seagroatt & Campbell, Malaysia mungkin akan kehabisan idea jika keadaan ekonomi Amerika berterusan lembab lebih lama daripada yang dijangka. Lagipun ringgit yang tinggi akan menyebabkan ekspot negara tidak kompetetif - begitu juga saham-saham di BSKL.

Kemungkinan ringgit dinilai semua membuat pelabur resah kerana bimbang rugi jika ia diisytihar tiba-tiba. Mahathir sudah terkenal membakar pelabur dulunya demi kepentingan dirinya. Pelabur luar kini sudah cukup masak dengan tektiknya.

KEBIMBANGAN TERJEJAS OLEH SISTEM BARU MSCI

Salah satu punca pelabur menjauhi Malaysia adalah kerana sistem baru penilaian saham oleh MSCI yang akan dipaparkan menjelang Mei 19.

"Malaysia mungkin menjadi negara yang paling terjejas teruk di Asia kerana ia antara negara yang mempunyai paling tinggi bilangan syarikat yang dipegang oleh agensi kerajaan." kata Mak Hoy Kit dari KAF Seagroatt & Campbell.

Apungan bebas (free float) negara kita sekitar 30% sahaja berbanding dengan Hong Kong 46%, Taiwan 49% dan Korea Selatan 58%.

Rencana BTS melapurkan IPI (Industrial Production Index) atau Indeks Pengeluaran Industri Malaysia berkembang cuma 0.5% - ini nilai yang terendah sejak 2 tahun sudah.

Menurut Nizam dari IDEAglobal, IPI mungkin mencecah paras negatif dalam bulan Mei atau Jun. "Inventori A.S. masih tinggi, dan ini bermakna mereka masih belum menyesuaikan diri dengan permintaan yang berkurang - oleh itu kita boleh jangkakan sedikit pesanan sahaja dalam bulan-bulan di hadapan"

Menurut CNet, National Semiconductor mengumumkan akan menggugurkan 10% pekerjanya di Malaysia dan Singapura. Syarikat ini mempunyai banyak kilang - tetapi KEBANYAKKANNya di negara China!

PELABUR LUAR SUDAHPUN TAWAR

Malaysia akan hilang sinarnya jika Mahathir terus dengan kedegilannya. Semua orang mahu untung dan tidak suka karenah politik dan birokrasi serta polisi yang tidak menentu. Tidak ada syarikat elektronik yang sanggup merugi kerana saingan amat kompetetif. Mahathir mempersalahkan pelabur luar tetapi Malaysia sendiri melabur di Burma. Malah anaknya Mokhzani mahu menjual pegangannya dalam Phileo Aliied kepada orang asing dan orang luar. Sekarang Mahathir mahu memanggil semula pelabur luar tapi malangnya hati mereka sudahpun tawar. Sebagai doktor Mahathir seharusnya faham sakit badan mungkin ada ubatnya tetapi sakit hati sukar mengubatnya sampai bila-bila - sebab itulah ramai suami dan isteri bercerai di Malaysia kerananya walaupun dulu begitu intim berjanji, bermesra dan bercinta. Pelabur pun lebih kurang begitu juga. Cinta memerlukan pengorbanan tetapi Mahathir tetap menyimpan semua kroni dan penyangak tersayang. Kalau dihukum barulah terbukti keikhlasan tetapi banyak kisah berakhir dalam diam. Itu namanya kepura-puraan.

-Terjemahan Ringkas/Ulasan Kapal Berita-

http://livenews.lycosasia.com/cgi-bin/get.pl? pi_news_id=611805&pi_ctry=my&pi_lang=en

Malaysia is Asia's worst stock market performer

By Wong Choon Mei

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysian shares have hit bottom spot among regional markets, displacing neighbours Singapore and Indonesia with a 16 percent year-to-date loss as fears of a currency devaluation exacted a heavy toll.

The 100-stock Kuala Lumpur Composite Index has tumbled 107 points since the end of last year, making it the worst Asian performer so far this year, despite government efforts to re-ignite interest in a local market starved of foreign cash.

"It is the continued fear of immediate revaluation losses that keeps foreign investors away," said Yee Yang Chien, research head at HLG Capital.

In 1998, Malaysia angered international investors by implementing a controversial package of capital controls, including pegging the ringgit at 3.8 to a dollar, to stem domestic market volatility following the Asian financial crisis.

Last week, the government scrapped a 10 percent tax on share profits repatriated by foreign investors but left the ringgit peg unchanged.

While the government has repeatedly said it does not plan to remove the peg nor devalue the ringgit despite weakening regional currencies, analysts say investors are not keen to bet on it.

"Foreign funds are looking at a possible 10 to 15 percent downside if Malaysia devalues and if it doesn't, there is the worry the local economy may lose out in competitiveness," Rudie Chan, an analyst at ING Barings, said last month at the height of speculation about devaluation.

The Malaysian economy is export dependent, with electronics and electrical products accounting for 60 percent of total goods exported.

The next worst-performing Asian market was Singapore, which has buckled on fears of a U.S. slowdown to drop 11.7 percent this year as measured by Tuesday's close.

Crisis-hit Indonesia and Manila have lost 10.4 and 4.5 percent respectively while Thai shares have surged 13.9 percent.

MSCI FEARS

Another factor pressing on local shares is soon-to-be announced global stock index weighting changes by influential indexer Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) .

MSCI said it would reveal provisional changes on May 19.

Malaysia is expected to be hit by the MSCI's adjustments, which favour markets with a large availability of tradable shares, so-called free float.

"Malaysia may be among the biggest losers in Asia because it has one of the highest numbers of companies with large state holdings," said Mak Hoy Kit of KAF Seagroatt & Campbell.

The country's free float is estimated at only 30 percent compared with Hong Kong's 46 percent, Taiwan's 49 and South Korea's 58 percent.

Little cheer is seen in the immediate term with some analysts predicting further softness for local shares until at least the year-end.

"It's hard to see any catalyst that can bring back foreign cash, especially when you have the U.S. slowdown looming. Malaysia may be running out of ammunition and ideas," said Mak.

Last year, more than $3 billion in foreign money exited the local stock market. Analysts blamed the exodus on a host of reasons including capital controls, policy flip-flops, slow debt reform and corporate governance.

"The fourth quarter is the earliest seen for any upturn," said HLG's Yee, who expects the market to consolidate around 500 points.

The Business Times, Singapore
9th May 2001

KL March industrial production growth lowest in 2 years

By Diana Oon Abdullah in Kuala Lumpur

MALAYSIA'S industrial production expanded by 0.5 per cent in March, its smallest growth in over two years after it tipped into negative territory in 1999 following the economic downturn.

'The numbers were a bit of a shock. A downward revision of February's Industrial Production Index from 4.3 to 1.8 per cent produced a month-on-month growth rate of 5.8 per cent, but the year-on-year figure is a lot weaker than the average of 2 per cent we were looking at,' said IDEAglobal's Nizam Idris.

Weaker output numbers have been expected given the slowdown in the United States, which takes 60 per cent of Malaysia's electronics exports. Electrical and electronics exports make up more than half of the country's total exports, while manufacturing contributes to one-third of the country's GDP.

'Data released so far suggests that first quarter GDP growth will be within expectations - between 3 and 4 per cent,' said Lee Heng Guie, chief economist at HLG Securities. IDEAglobal's Mr Nizam is looking at 3-3.5 per cent.

Mr Lee was not disappointed with the IPI numbers, which he said were in line with his expectations. He took heart from the small reduction of 0.1 per cent in overall manufacturing growth in March, saying: 'This means that the non-electronics sector in manufacturing has held up the sector somewhat.'

The electronics boom in the early part of last year would also result in a high-base effect for this year's growth, and March's number is to a certain extent affected by it, noted another regional economist with a foreign house.

The government's projected 5-6 per cent GDP growth based on a RM3 billion (S$1.4 billion) pump-priming package announced earlier this year might be too optimistic if manufacturing's weakness continues into the middle of the year. Private sector economists estimate growth at between 3 and 4.5 per cent, nearer the 4.5 per cent predicted for Malaysia by the IMF.

Industrial production could slow further in the second half if things do not pick up in the US, said economists. 'Some people are looking at the stability of decline seen in some segments of electronics demand as a sign that things are improving, but it all depends on how the US domestic economy reacts to the next round of job cuts,' said Song Seng Wun of GK Goh.

'This is not really the bottom. I am expecting IPI to turn negative in May or June,' said Mr Nizam. 'US inventory levels are still high, which means they have not fully adjusted to the weaker demand, so we can expect fewer orders in the coming months.

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg

http://asia.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ technology/cnet/article.html?s=asia/headlines/ 010509/technology/cnet/National_Semi_to_ lay_off_staff_in_S_pore__M_sia.html

Wednesday, May 9 7:10 PM SGT

National Semi to lay off staff in S'pore, M'sia

SINGAPORE--National Semiconductor's Singapore and Malaysia employees have not been spared from the US company's decision to eliminate 1,100 jobs, or about 10 percent of its global workforce.

Roughly 10 percent of the microchip manufacturer's staff in Singapore (which employs about 1,500 staff) and in Malaysia (about 2,500 staff) will be laid off following the resizing exercise, said National Semi Singapore vice president and managing director Wan Choong Hoe in a telephone interview this evening.

Singapore and Malaysia represent National Semi's manufacturing operations in Asia, with other plants located in the US (with a combined staff of 1,718) and Scotland (around 600 staff). The company also has regional design centers in Bangalore, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Taipei and Tokyo.

For Singapore, the layoffs will be "across the board", Wan noted, with retrenched staff receiving one month's compensation for every year of employment as well as 30 days advance notice pay and group hospitalization coverage for another six months.

National Semi Malaysia's spokesperson added, however, that the overall number for the Melaka plant may not reach 250 employees (or 10 percent), as other employees may leave the company due to attrition and retirement. According to her, the company is offering voluntary separation schemes (VSS) to all employees across the board, and the staff reduction exercise is expected to take place over the next two weeks.

The spokesperson claimed that Melaka's manufacturing output would not be affected by the layoffs, but pointed out that Malaysia's manufacuring output had fallen by 65 percent since September last year--the start of its fiscal 2001 second quarter--due to the economic slowdown.

Apart from the layoffs, other cost cutting measures planned at the local level (in Malaysia) will see the company introducing shorter working weeks, deferring projects in accordance to market demands, minimizing employee overtime, and freezing recruitment, she added.

Meanwhile, a spokeperson from National Semiconductor Hong Kong--the regional headquarters for the company's sales and marketing operations--said that there will be minimal impact in Asia Pacific on the marketing and sales side as most of the layoffs will be at the plant level.

As earlier reported, National said the job cuts will come through a combination of layoffs, attrition and retirement and affect 800 full-time employees and 128 contractors. The job cuts, along with an effort to reduce other costs, should save the company about US$70 million to US$80 million a year, National Semi said.

"This was a tough action for us to take, especially because it impacts many people who have served National well," CEO Brian Halla said in the statement. "However, given the continuing weakness in the marketplace, it is necessary to conform our resources to the market in order to maximize National's opportunity for long-term success."