AWSJ: TENAGA MENGHADAPI SAAT GETIR

Khabar angin dari Mahathir bahawa TNB akan mengambil pegangan majoriti dalam projek Bakun menyebabkan saham syarikat itu tergelincir dan jatuh teruk sehinga RM 12.6 bilion nilai sahamnya terpadam sejak awal tahun ini sahaja. Ia juga telah menyebabkan TNB tertendang dari kerusi nombor satu takungan dana (market capitalization) yang kini sudah diduduki oleh Telekom Malaysia.

Menurut analis ING Barings, "Nilai semasa saham TNB sendiri sudahpun menggambarkan 50% kemungkinan ringgit akan dinilai semula dan kelembapan ekonomi yang lebih parah". Tekanan untuk menjual saham TNB mungkin meningkat pada suku ketiga tahun ini bila pengurus dana menyusun semula potfolio mereka sejajar dengan susun-atur baru Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI).

MANGSA KHABAR ANGIN, CAMPURTANGAN KERAJAAN, MSCI DAN RINGGIT

Sistem baru MSCI itu lebih menekankan faktor saham yang boleh diurusniaga (tradeable shares) atau apungan bebas (free float). Malaysia mempunyai terlalu banyak syarikat tersenarai yang dikawal oleh agensi kerajaan dan dianggarkan cuma 30% sahaja saham yang terapung bebas. Sebagai perbandingan, apungan bebas Hong Kong sekitar 46% manakala Taiwan 46%.

Tenaga terapung hanya 20%. Awal tahun ini sahamnya mencecah RM12.80 tetapi ia menjunam 11% kepada RM8.70 bila Mahathir mengisytiharkan Tenaga akan memegang kepentingan majoriti dalam projek RM9 bilion Bakun itu. Walaupun pengurusan Tenaga cuba memberi beberapa penjelasan 'salah-faham' saham syarikat itu masih melemah dan ditutup pada kadar RM8.60 Jumaat lepas.

Krisis ini membayangkan Tenaga tidak bebas dan terpaksa melutut kepada kehendak kerajaan walaupun dibantah oleh pemegang sahamnya. Analis masih ragu bagaimana minyak kelapa sawit dapat memacu janakuasa eletrik TNB kerana ia lebih mahal dan tidak cekap serta mungkin membawa kesan sampingan yang tidak baik.

Selain campurtangan kerajaan, Tenaga sudahpun merasa sedikit bahang kelembapan ekonomi. Jualan letrik terakhir bulan Mac lalu mencatat 3% kemerosotan dalam segmen industri yang merupakan separuh dari pendapatan jualan TNB. TNB mencatat untung RM1.33 bilion pada akhir Ogos 2000.

Apa yang lebih membimbangkan analis ialah hutang TNB sebanyak RM27.66 bilion di mana 51% terdiri daripada pinjaman luar dalam bentuk USD dan Yen. Ini sungguh membimbangkan kerana terdapat spekulasi ringgit terpaksa dinilai semula jika matawang serantau merosot. Jika USD merosot sehingga 15% dan Yen merosot sampai 30%, pendapatan TNB sekitar 2 bilion setiap tahun itu dijangka merosot 10%.

KOMEN:

Sejak diterajui oleh Jamaluddin Jarjis Tenaga semakin terpudar sinarnya. Kita sudah ramalkan Mahathir melantiknya untuk mengusik dananya buat projek Bakun dan beberapa projek lain seperti membeli tenaga dari janakuasa kroni.

Tenaga hari ini menghadapi krisis teruk akibat khabar angin Mahathir, campurtangan memandai kerajaan agar ia melibatkan diri dalam projek berisiko tinggi, kelembapan ekonomi sektor industri dan kemungkinan ringgit dinilai semula yang akan menyebabkan hutang luarnya meningkat berganda.

Apa yang membimbangkan kita tiada siapa yang berani menyanggah Mahathir secara terbuka. Pengurusan TNB hanya sekadar dapat memberi penjelasan 'salah-faham' sahaja kerana sebarang kata-kata yang lebih keras bakal mengundang kemarahan si tua itu. Sekali lagi pelabur terpaksa hidup terteka-teka dan tidak yakin kepada berita. Akibatnya mereka menjual saham TNB kerana tidak sanggup bermain dalam kesamaran yang tentunya amat berbahaya.

-Terjemahan Ringkas Kapal Berita-

http://livenews.lycosasia.com/cgi-bin/get.pl? pi_news_id=619272&pi_ctry=my&pi_lang=en

AWSJ: Heard In Malaysia: Tenaga Nasional Faces Tough Times

By Leslie Lopez

Staff Reporter

KUALA LUMPUR -- Investors brutally unplugged shares of Tenaga Nasional Bhd. after Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said the power utility will take a majority stake in the controversial Bakun hydroelectric project on Borneo. That sell-off two weeks ago pushed Tenaga's share price down more than 30% off its year high of 12.80 ringgit ($3.37) and erased roughly 12.6 billion ringgit in the stock's market value since the beginning of this year. It also knocked the company off its perch as Malaysia's biggest listed concern in terms of market capitalization. That spot is now held by state-controlled telecommunications company Telekom Malaysia Bhd. If you are thinking it may be time to pick up some Tenaga shares, several power-sector analysts say you had better think again. They say there are downside risks associated with the electricity generation and distribution company, largely because of the expected slowdown in the Malaysian economy and persistent fears the local currency, which is pegged at 3.80 ringgit per dollar, may be devalued in coming months.

"Tenaga is very much in no-man's-land," said a research chief of a foreign stockbroking firm. "The stock price has fallen off the cliff, but if there is a devaluation the stock could be a big loser."

Uday Jayaram, an analyst with ING Barings in Kuala Lumpur, agrees. "Tenaga's current share price already factors in a 50% probability of a ringgit devaluation and a sharp economic slowdown," he said. He noted that selling pressure on Tenaga could increase in the third quarter, when fund managers start to realign their portfolios to comply with the new index weightings by Morgan Stanley Capital International.

The new MSCI weighting structure favors companies with a large availability of tradable shares, or in equity-talk: a big free float. Malaysia, with its high number of state-controlled agencies or concerns listed on the exchange, has one of the lowest free floats, which some analysts estimate at around roughly 30%. That compares with Hong Kong and Taiwan, which have free floats of roughly 46% and 49%, respectively, analysts said.

Tenaga, which is majority-owned by the government, has a free float of 20%. Its shares were trading at a high of 12.80 ringgit earlier this year and since then the shares have fallen in tandem with the slumping Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. The body blow to the company's share price came early this month when Dr. Mahathir declared on May 4 that Tenaga will own a majority stake in the nine-billion-ringgit Bakun hydroelectric project, which has been stalled because of the regional economic crisis.

Tenaga's stock plummeted 11% that day to 8.70 ringgit, despite subsequent clarifications by the power company's senior management that it wouldn't be taking a huge stake in the hydroelectric project.

The company's shares closed Friday at 8.60 ringgit apiece, which Teh Chi Chang of SG Securities in Kuala Lumpur said values the company at about 15 times its earnings for the year ending August 2002. That compares with the broader market, which is trading at a price/earnings ratio of about 13 times for the same period.

Most analysts believe Tenaga won't take a large stake in Bakun and consider Dr. Mahathir's remarks to be a misunderstanding. Still, they note that the episode highlights the government's strong influence over the group, and how national interests often transcend those of Tenaga's shareholders.

Another case of Kuala Lumpur's interference in Tenaga's affairs emerged when the power company announced it would burn crude palm oil in its power plants in a bid to help the government reduce the overhang of crude palm oil stock. Mr. Uday of ING Barings said there are widespread doubts over palm oil's efficiency as a fuel and noted it is more expensive than medium fuel oil, which is used traditionally to fire power plants. What is more, the use of crude palm oil could also have adverse effects on the equipment at generation plants, he said.

Government intervention aside, Tenaga is feeling the pinch of a slowing economy. Electricity sales figures for March, the latest available, revealed a 3% month-on-month decline in the industrial segment, which accounts for roughly half of Tenaga's electricity sales. As a result, CLSA in Kuala Lumpur has downgraded Tenaga's earnings forecast for the year ending August 2001 by 2.1% to 1.82 billion ringgit. The power company registered a net profit of 1.33 billion ringgit at the end of August 2000.

But a much bigger bugbear to analysts is Tenaga's debt of 27.66 billion ringgit, of which 51% is made up of foreign loans denominated mainly in U.S. dollars and Japanese yen. This is worrisome because there has been widespread speculation that Malaysia will be forced to re-peg its currency against the dollar should regional currencies weaken further. Should the ringgit and yen depreciate by 15% and 30%, respectively, Mr. Uday's estimate of Tenaga's recurrent net earnings of roughly two billion ringgit each year could be hit by as much 10%, he said.