BILA DANA TIDAK MENCUKUPI - TERGARU KEPALA TENTUNYA PASTI

Jika anda membaca beberapa berita ekonomi mutakhir ini banyak perkara yang membimbangkan telah muncul. Zetti baru sahaja mengesahkan NPL sudah meningkat dan bank akan digabungkan lagi dalam fasa kedua. Ini menggambarkan dana tidak mencukupi kerana yang mahu dikorek lebih tinggi

Rencana terbaru AFP menyebut BTS mendedahkan kerajaan mungkin tidak akan dapat menyelamatkan LRT sebelum tarikh tamat penghujung Jun ini kerana kelewatan mengeluarkan bon sebanyak RM6 bilion itu. Sudah tentu sambutan IPO time dotCom yang lalu menjadi punca kerajaan tergaru-garu mencari di mana mahu dikorek sebanyak ini tanpa malu sekali lagi.

SYARIKAT GERGASI MULA TERGIGIT SESEKALI

Maybank baru-baru ini mencatat keuntungan yang sedikit di bawah jangkaan. Telekom pula memberi pelbagai diskaun dan sudah tidak berminat untuk membeli Jaring dari MIMOS. Tenaga Nasional sedang pening dengan berita Bakun yang disebar oleh diktator 'baik' sehingga ia tergelincir jatuh dan tewas kepada Telekom Malaysia dari tempat pertama sebagai syarikat yang paling banyak dipermodalkan. Para pelabur sudah sangsi kemana Jamaluddin mahu memacu TNB dan begitu kecewa kegagalan TNB untuk memberi penjelasan yang memuaskan apakah rancangan sebenar TNB dalam Bakun itu nanti. Masadepan TNB turut terjejas kerana paparan baru MSCI dijangka akan menurunkan lagi selera pelabur pada TNB.

Bagaimana dengan Petronas pula? Syarikat ini pun sakit juga jika tidak semua kakitangan Petronas akan berwajah ceria. Mereka begitu penat bekerja tetapi orang lain pula yang mendapat wang dari syarikat mereka tetapi mereka sendiri dipersetankan sahaja. Itulah sebabnya setengah dari mereka menjadi pengintip sukarela sebagimana yang didedahkan oleh Harun Rashid dalam siri lanun negara.

Petronas asyik menolong orang lain yang bermasalah sedangkan masalah diri sendiri dan pekerja masih banyak yang tidak terjaga. Kisah teksi Petronas itu dan ruang kosong di KLCC adalah salah satu darinya. Tetapi ada lagi yang lebih tinggi belanja - satu skandal kapal yang mungkin akan terdedah nanti bila tiba waktunya. Apa yang didedahkan oleh saudara Harun Rashid secara berdikit baru-baru ini harus dibaca banyak kali kerana itu semua adalah amaran awal apa yang bakal terjadi seterusnya.

Gergasi masih boleh hidup jika digigit semut sesekali tetapi jika ular nasibnya belum tentu lagi. Sebelum ular itu datang kemari lebih baik si gergasi itu tidak bermain ditepian yang bersemak dan berisiko tinggi kerana bisanya sengat itu boleh membuat yang besar pun mati. Ikutilah nasihat doktor pakar yang sebenar-benarnya bukannya seorang doktor yang sudah tidak terpakai lagi. Bukankah khabar dari mulutnya sahaja sudah membuat pelabur TNB bertempiaran lari? Itu pun belum masuk sentuhannya lagi....

FORMULA MAHATHIR TIDAK BERISI

Rencana BTS berikut menunjukkan pelbagai formula yang dicipta oleh Mahathir sendiri tanpa Daim pun tidak menjadi. Saham merudum lagi selepas penghapusan levi dan polisi baru kelonggaran membeli hartanah diumumkan baru-baru ini. Berita Mokhzani berundur pun tidak mampu membuat pelabur berpuas hati. Mahathir seharusnya membaca semua reaksi pelabur masakini betapa dia sudah tidak lagi dikehendakki untuk menerajui negara ini. Castro sendiri sudah menyindirnya sampai tiga kali malangnya itu pun tidak diperduli.

Semua pihak kini sedang memerhati rezab antarabangsa negara. Ekspot kita semakin menurun dan jurang dagangan impot-ekspot semakin sempit. Penjualan minyak kelapa sawit melalui tukaran barter dijangka tidak akan memberi kesan berpada kepada rezab negara. Begitu juga dengan pakatan strategik antara bank pusat dengan beberapa negara untuk menggerunkan serangan spekulator. Tidak perlu spekulator menyerang ringgit kerana rezab yang berkurang akan menekan ringgit dengan sendirinya. Mahathir sekali lagi cuba menyalahkan orang asing mahu menggugat ekonomi negara sedangkan faktor sebenar ialah kelemahan kerajaan untuk menarik pelabur di saat negara saingan seperti China semakin mengancam tarikannya.

Kerajaan kini begitu terdesak sehingga menjual minyak kelapa sawit secara barter dengan negara Cina dan India. Apa yang menarik ialah langkah mempermudahkan visa itu akan membolehkan Mahathir lari ke sana seandainya apa-apa terjadi di sini. Lagipun beliau amat berminat dengan teknologi atau IT - tentunya dapat bermain game Doom kerana ada muslihat rahsia supaya tidak akan mati.

-Kapal Berita-

Rencana Rujukan:

The Business Times, Singapore
14th May 2001

Malaysian bourse not out of the woods yet

Despite recent govt efforts, concerns linger over RM peg, corporate health, impending change in MSCI weightings

By Eddie Toh

THE Malaysian stock market has continued to languish, despite major changes introduced in the past two weeks to make it more foreign investor-friendly.

The government scrapped the 10 per cent exit levy on profits from sale of equities by foreigners on May 2. On the following day, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad eased rules for foreigners to own all properties worth between RM250,000 (S$119,350) and RM20 million in a bid to clear the RM30 billion backlog of properties.

News of the removal of the exit tax boosted the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Composite Index by 26.92 points, or a staggering 4.6 per cent, raising it to 611.42 points. But the euphoria was short-lived. The buying spree was dominated by local punters while foreigners took the opportunity to cash out further.

The result: all the gains were wiped out within one week. The market barometer closed at 571.02 points last Friday - 2.3 per cent below the level prior to removal of the exit levy.

While the government has made the right moves in removing the exit levy and opening up the property sector, it will take more to woo investors.

They need to be assured that the new policies will not be reversed. Many investors were burnt more than once by sudden regulatory changes in the past.

Investors also worry about the currency peg, with reserves now running low. The reserves have fallen from its peak of US$34 billion (S$61.7 billion) in April to a low of US$26.3 billion at the end of last month. The amount is only enough to finance four months of retained imports - just one month more than the generally-accepted prudent level of three months.

It's still unclear if the falling reserves have finally turned around when it registered an increase of US$100 million to US$26.4 billion last week. What's clear is that the current reserves are not big enough to assure investors that the current ringgit peg is sustainable.

Need for reserves boost

The government will therefore need to beef up the reserves substantially to counter the continued outflow of foreign portfolio funds. It could ask state-owned oil agency Petroliam Nasional (Petronas) to repatriate its foreign earnings of about US$30 billion, but it's not known how much of the money is encumbered.

The government may have greater difficulties persuading rich Malaysians like Quek Leng Chan of Hong Leong to bring home earnings from their overseas ventures. Mr Quek's Guoco Group is set to pocket up to HK$45.3 billion (S$10.5 billion) from selling its Dao Heng Bank in Hongkong to Singapore's DBS Bank. Many market observers doubt the tycoon would send the money back to Malaysia.

Another major concern is the slow pace of corporate debt restructuring and its impact on the banking sector. Many companies deep in debts are still dragging their feet in disposing of their assets. The regulators must shoulder part of the blame because they have blocked some companies' attempts to sell assets to non-Malays and foreigners.

The government must make it easier for debt-laden companies to sell assets in order to pare down their borrowings. A leaner and more vibrant corporate sector will revive investor interest in the moribund market.

But there is little the Malaysian government can do when the Morgan Stanley Capital International changes its indices soon in a move that is likely to have a negative impact on Malaysia.

Malaysia's weighting will drop sharply in the widely-tracked indices as the new formula will be based on companies' free float of shares rather than market capitalisation. The Malaysian government still owns a substantial portion of many listed companies, leaving a small amount of scrip in public hands.

Any move to reduce the Malaysian government's stakes in major listed companies - like Telekom Malaysia, Tenaga Nasional and Maybank - will be slow.

In the meantime, the Malaysian market is expected to consolidate further because of lingering doubts about the ringgit peg and the health of the corporate sector - the friendlier investor environment notwithstanding.

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg

http://news.catcha.com/my/content.phtml? 1&010&&afpnews.cgi&cat=malaysia&story= 010514041606.dfshii8j.txt

Malaysia may miss deadline to repay 1.5 billion debt: report

KUALA LUMPUR, May 14 (AFP) - The Malaysian government may miss a June 30 deadline to repay the six billion ringgit (1.57 billion dollar) debt it took over from two light railway operators, a newspaper said Monday.

Business Times, quoting banking sources, said the finance ministry has told the country's Corporate Debt Restructuring Committee that it may miss the deadline because of a delay in issuing bonds to raise the money.

A finance ministry spokesman had no immediate comment on the report.

"The government is looking at new repayment dates...the authorities are very firm about honouring their pledges," the paper quoted one source as saying.

"The government is working on putting a better financial structure in place."

Last December the government announced it would take over the debt from the two private light rail transit (LRT) firms as part of a major restructuring of Kuala Lumpur's public transport system.

The acquisition was to be financed through a series of bond issues and the railway networks would be leased back to the private firms to operate.

Opposition parties criticised the deal as another "bailout" of favoured firms. The government said the 1997/98 regional financial crisis made it difficult for the private companies to repay capital or raise new loans.

Apart from buses the LRT lines were the first public transport system in the traffic-clogged city of 1.5 million. But usage has failed to meet expectations.

The city has 56 kilometers (35 miles) of LRT track, run by Sistem Transit Aliran Ringan (STAR) and Projek Usahasama Transit Ringan Automatik (PUTRA).

PUTRA is owned by debt-ridden conglomerate Renong.