[Umno menganggap saingan politik itu tidak baik untuk dirinya sedangkan ia sebenarnya amat baik untuk orang melayu dan rakyat Malaysia amnya. Sudah ada anjakan paradigma sikap orang melayu sebenarnya yang masih tidak difahami oleh Umno. Kematangan berpolitik orang melayu sudah menggugat Umno. Menghentam mereka adalah satu sikap yang tidak kena kerana mereka sudah mempunyai pilihan selain Umno. Umno telah gagal memenuhi citarasa orang melayu yang sudah jauh kedepan dari politik sempitnya. Tanpa reformasi Umno akan ketinggalan dan terpupus dari dunia.

Kemunculan PAS dan KeADILan menyebabkan Umno terpaksa juga cuba membersihkan dirinya dan mengambil kaum Cina sebagai ahli - jika tidak ia akan menjadi semakin tidak relevan dan ketinggalan selama-lamanya - lebih-lebih lagi kepada KeADILan kerana parti itu milik semua kaum dan ugama dan pemimpinnya lengkap dengan tiga ikon yang mewakili semua - Ezam, Tian Chua, dan Gobalakrisnan. Datin Sri Wan Azizah pula menjadi pelengkap dan ibu kepada semua - sekaligus dapat menarik minat kaum hawa. Nurul Ezzah pula mungkin (nanti) akan menjadi ikon golongan muda. - Editor]

Straits Times of Singapore
29th June 2001

Real trouble may lie ahead for Umno

By P. Ramasamy

THE recent Umno general assembly gave all indications that the party might be in for real trouble in the coming years in terms of gathering the necessary Malay support.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad's presidential address castigated Malays for falling behind non-Malays, but the real message was that Malays in general were not following party dictates.

The real question in the minds of Malays at the party's meeting was whether Umno could remain relevant to the political, social and cultural interests of Malays in the coming years.

The president's criticism of Parti Islam (PAS) was not so much that the party had a different political formula for attracting Malays, but about the damage it caused in denying the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) crucial parliamentary and state seats in the last general election.

PAS is worrisome to Umno simply because it is the only Malay party that stands to gain from Umno's political decay.

There is real worry that if PAS goes on attracting more support from Malays, Umno might become politically irrelevant to Malays in the next few decades.

The real concern in the minds of those delegates who attended the meeting was whether the party could be really reformed in coming years, and lost support weaned back.

While some changes have been introduced in the party to project its attraction, whether they will work remains to be seen.

For instance, the changes which seek to prevent division leaders from competing for business projects have not gone down well at branch and divisional levels where there is a feeling that only those in the top echelons might benefit.

Umno's story of decline has parallels in other countries such as India, where parties that fought for independence and provided some sort of effective representation for their constituencies have become bogged down.

As a result, parties formed much later have come to the political fore.

But the main point is that Umno's monopoly on Malays has been broken, meaning parties like PAS or Keadilan Rakyat Malaysia might offer alternatives.

The fact that Malays are politically divided does not mean the race is weak.

The fact that the Malay community is thinking and acting suggests that it is much matured.

This is what troubles Umno, a development paradoxically induced by the party in rigorously promoting Malay participation during the heyday of the New Economic Policy.

There seems to be an obvious incongruence between the subjective and objective level when explaining the relevance of Umno.

At the subjective level, continued emphasis by the party's leadership suggests it believes that by undertaking internal reforms, it can attract support.

But the objective view of outside observers is that the leadership seems incapable of understanding that Umno has reached a critical historical juncture where it cannot take Malay support for granted.

The development of a strong Malay middle class, the rise in confidence and maturity of Malays in general, the development of political alternatives for Malays, the changing political scenario with its clamour for democracy and respect for human rights have created problems for Umno.

To expect uncritical Malay support on the basis of Umno's historical role is expecting the impossible.

In fact, it is possible the party might lead the BN in clinching victory in the next general election.

But this would not mean that it would have 100 per cent support from Malays.

The loss of Malay support for Umno is a reminder that the country's political, social and economic situation has undergone fundamental transformation over the last few decades.

Thus, appeals for Malay unity might not be enough for the party to resurrect itself as it did in early years.

Pluralism, the demand for democracy, respect for human rights and the need for transparency are some of the trends which mean Malaysians, irrespective of race or religion, might opt for an alternative coalition in coming years.

This might very well lead to a two-coalition system.

The writer is a political science professor at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. He contributed this article to The Straits Times.