[Mengikut beberapa pakar ekonomi seperti David DeRosa, krisis ekonomi di Amerika mungkin bukan lagi kerana kelemahan pengurusan syarikat IT tetapi ia lebih kepada kemerosotan permintaan masakini akibat tiada sesuatu yang menarik atau 'hot' untuk dibeli. Ini menyebabkan kilang elektronik/IT dunia terpaksa mengurangkan kos serta membuang pekerja sehingga Singapura yang hebat itu pun tergugat sekali. Malaysia tentunya lebih teruk lagi cuma ia tidak digembar-gemburkan sahaja sedangkan kita semakin lingkup adanya.

Berita pembuangan beribu-ribu pekerja kilang di Pulau Pinang itu adalah realiti betapa Malaysia pun turut tercekik oleh fenomena ini. Kawalan matawang menyebabkan Malaysia semakin tidak kompetetif sehingga banyak kilang terpaksa membuang pekerja atau ditutup terus untuk mengurangkan kerugian.

Sebenarnya negara memulih dari krisis dulu bukan kerana kepandaian Mahathir menguruskan ekonomi tetapi kerana permintaan IT dunia yang amat tinggi serta harga minyak petrol yang naik sebegitu mendadak. FDI yang mencurah masuk lebih tertumpu kepada sektor tradisi seperti petrokimia dan elektronik sahaja - itupun lebih berbentuk tambahan kepada kilang yang lama atau sedia ada.

Kecaman Mahathir terhadap pelabur luar serta perubahan polisi secara tiba-tiba dulu menyebabkan pelabur sudah tidak yakin lagi untuk melangkah kaki kemari walaupun kelegaan cukai ditawarkan sekarang ini. Dia lebih mementingkan untung rugi dirinya sendiri sehingga sanggup membatalkan janji termasuk royalti dan polisi.

'Kita jangan lupa, selama satu tahun lamanya dari September 1998 hingga September 1999, Mahathir telah membekukan semua pergerakkan modal. Mahathir sebenarnya telah menyumbat pelaburan asing kedalam penjara kewangan. Apakah insentif cukai itu amat menarik sehingga ia dapat menandingi risiko Mahathir mungkin bangkit dari lamunannya pada satu pagi dan mengambil keputusan untuk sekali lagi menampar pelabur dengan kawalan modal?,' kata David DeRosa.

- Editor]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?
ptitle=David%20DeRosa&touch=1&s1=blk&
tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht& s2=blk&bt=blk&s=AO0xlNhaDR2xvYmFs

07/11 10:39

Global Tech Slowdown Is Clobbering Southeast Asia

By David DeRosa

New Canaan, Connecticut, July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Dreadful economic statistics are pouring out of Asia from countries dependent on technology industries.

The latest shock came with yesterday's Singapore gross domestic product report. According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore's annualized seasonally adjusted real GDP fell 10.1 percent in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. And that follows an annualized shrinkage of 11 percent in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, Taiwan's exports fell 16.6 percent in June compared with the year earlier. The corresponding numbers are minus 11.3 percent and minus 22.6 percent for April and May.

And in Malaysia, industrial production has been falling since March. Production slid 3.7 percent in Malaysia in May compared with the same month a year earlier. In April production fell 1.7 per cent.

There's no big secret to the declines -- worldwide demand for computer-related manufactured goods is on the skids. The question is what, if anything, these countries can do to extricate themselves from their predicaments.

New Crisis Brewing?

Asia has been on shaky footing ever since the summer of 1997. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other countries were rocked by extraordinary crises that started in their financial markets. Market pressure subsequently forced Thailand and Indonesia to abandon fixed exchange rates, whereupon the baht and the rupiah collapsed almost immediately.

With the exception of Indonesia, most of the afflicted countries were well on the mend by last year. But it is important to understand that this recovery came mainly from robust demand in America and Europe for Asian tech products.

Unfortunately, that was then and now is now. What ails Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia is not so much the so-called global economic slowdown as it is a slump in demand for Asian tech products.

This brings me to a crucial distinction in the form of a question. Say that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is successful in reviving growth in America with his interest rate cuts. Is it axiomatic that there will be a surge in demand for computer chips, disk drives, and everything else that is produced in Asia's factories?

And what if consumers, for now, at least until the next great invention comes around, are simply all tech-ed out? Said another way, it what could be the problem is not so much a business cycle as much as the technology product cycle.

If that unpleasant hunch is true, then nothing that Alan Greenspan might do can help Asia.

Currency Devaluation?

The shoot-from-the hip prognosis is that Asian nations will seek ways to devalue their currencies in the hope of expanding exports. And some of them may try that trick.

But how much room do they have to lower their already debased currencies? By comparison, both the Singapore dollar and the New Taiwan dollar are each approximately 20 percent lower against the dollar now than they were in July 1997 when the Southeast Asian crisis erupted.

Malaysia has had the ringgit pegged to the dollar at 3.800 ever since September 1998. For a while, Malaysia got some advantage because other Asian currencies rose in value against the dollar. But now the tables are turned on Mahathir because the ringgit is pegged but his neighbor's currencies are falling. Which makes me think the ringgit is the best candidate for devaluation.

Mahathir's Back

And speaking of Malaysia and Mahathir, I can't pass up commenting on what amounts to the silliest idea of all on what to do about the Asian downturn.

The national news agency Bernama reports that Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is studying the idea of giving foreign investors tax incentives to invest in Malaysia. Come into my parlor said the spider to the fly.