KEUNGGULAN MALAYSIA SEMAKIN TERHAKIS

Sudah lama kita menulis negara China akan 'mencuri' pelaburan dari negara ini kerana lekanya pemimpin 'berwawasan' kita. Presiden US-Asean Business Council, En. Ernest Z Bower menyatakan pada awal 1990an, lebih 70% FDI ke timur menuju ke ASEAN dan cuma 30% ke China tetapi sekarang itu semua sudah terbalik kerana China sudah menerima lebih 70% FDI. (Edge Daily/Fortune) ASEAN sudah gagal bersaing kerana asyik membuat benda lain yang tidak menyenangkan pelabur. Kesannya 90,000 pekerja kilang Malaysia dijangka akan menganggur. Siapakah mereka yang malang ini jika tidak pengundi yang sebahagiannya menyokong Umno. (Rujuk kajian STS, KM2 5178)

SINI SAKIT SANA SAKIT BELAKA - TAKKAN MALAYSIA SEGAR PULA?

Sekarang ekonomi Amerika sudah tenat dan bercelaru sehingga pakar ekonomi hebat negara itu pun sukar mengagak bila itu akan berakhir. Jepun pula masih pening kepala kerana masalah kebanjingan sudah jauh menular dalam sistem kewangan negara. Hari ini Jerman yang hebat itu dilapurkan sakit pula. Inilah rakan niaga Malaysia yang banyak membantu yang kini sudahpun tidak mampu kerana merekapun sakit juga. Malaysia kini terpaksa bergantung nasib agar semua rakan-rakan ini pulih semula. Sebenarnya apa yang berlaku sekarang menunjukkan sistem kapitalis barat dan timur sudah tewas dan tidak mampu menjamin hidup manusia kerana politik dan wang yang menentukan segalanya - bukannya pakar ekonomi dan kepentingan rakyat semua.

Bayangkan masalah Amerika itu telah membuat Krugman sendiri menggeleng kepala.... [Rujuk Yomiuri Krugman Interview]

TAJA MENAJA SEHINGGA PAPA KEDANA

Malaysia sebaliknya lebih banyak membuat benda besar untuk memecahkan rekod yang tidak berguna. Rakyat diajar membuang masa untuk menunjukkan kebolehan mencipta benda besar tapi apakah faedahnya? Ia tidak berkuasa untuk menarik apa-apa melainkan membazirkan sahaja sehingga banyak syarikat yang menaja projek haprak ini semakin bermasalah pula. Cukuplah dengan menyebut TV3 dan NST sahaja yang kini sudah gundah gelana dan mungkin ditelan oleh seekor dua raksaksa yang mewakili Umno. (Rujuk FEER: Daim, Debts and Downturn, KM2 5144)

RAMBUT BANK SUDAH PENDEK PUN MAHU DIBOTAKKAN JUGA?

Tahun ini Mahathir kerapkali merungut agar bank berlembut sedikit dan menolong peminjam. Baru-baru ini dia merayu agar bank memotong sedikit hutang (hair-cut) agar ringan sedikit beban siberhutang. Soalnya mengapa bank pula yang perlu berkorban sedangkan si kroni berjoli sakan? Bank sebenarnya sudah acap kali menolong kroni tetapi apakah balasan yang diterima? Kroni telah membakar dan melenyapkan bank pula! Kesannya bank sudah sakit dabn tercedera sehingga terpaksa membuang pekerja. Beberapa cawangan Maybank misalnya sudah tidak lagi menyediakan ruang mendeposit chek untuk menjimatkan kakitangan. Tidak lama lagi pelanggan mungkin akan terpaksa berbaris menunggu lama kerana bank terpaksa berjimat kerana sukarnya mengutip hutang yang bukan sedikit jumlahnya.

BILA BANK ENGGAN DANA AWAM DITUNGGANG PULA

Menurut pensyarah ekonomi UKM, En Mohamed Aslam, krisis ekonomi 1997 dulu telah melanda banyak syarikat gergasi negara ini dan kebanyakkannya adalah syarikat yang berkait rapat dengan ahli Umno. Ini menunjukkan mereka memilikinya bukan kerana kepakaran (atau merit) tetapi kerana intim dengan pemimpin yang ada.

Bank sudah enggan memberi hutang atau menjadualkan semula pembayaran balik hutang mereka kerana tiada kesungguhan kroni untuk menyusun semula strategi atau membaiki kepincangan yang ada. Bank sudah tidak percaya kepada kroni sebab itulah kerajaan masuk campur. Akibatnya dana awam dan wang tabungan kita telah dikorek untuk si kroni manja. Ada pula yang dibantu melalui bon dan ada yang mendapat bayaran tunai yang lebih tinggi dari kadar semasa. Begitulah istimewanya kroni Umno. Rugi berjuta pun boleh lepas begitu sahaja.

Soalnya disini bon-bon itu ditanggung oleh pembayar cukai. Inilah yang merungsingkan masyarakat. Kroni yang menimbulkan masalah rakyat pula yang terpaksa menanggung. Hutang kroni yang bertimbun itu telah menyebabkan bank tersadai dengan hutang lapuk sehingga hampir tidak mampu bergerak lagi. Pengalaman krisis yang lalu telah mengajar bank agar lebih berhati-hati untuk memberi pinjaman kepada syarikat yang lemah ini jika tidak bank pula yang akan tercekik nanti.

Terjemahan/Ulasan Ringkas Kapal Berita

Rujukan:

Nah! ini berita terbaru - Pengarah TV3 berundur...

http://livenews.lycosasia.com/cgi-bin/get.pl? pi_news_id=923753&pi_ctry=my&pi_lang=en

Sistem Televisyen Malaysia director Mohd Ibrahim Mohd Nor resigns

KUALA LUMPUR (AFX-ASIA) - Sistem Televisyen Malaysia Bhd director Mohd Ibrahim Mohd Nor has resigned as director of the company, according to a company filing to the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange.

mk/zr

Rujukan: [Portions Only]

http://www.bizedge.com.my/article.cfm?id=6753

Daily Edge Exclusives

Malaysia's leadership in Afta vital to attract FDI

By Thomas Soon, 2.26pm 07/08/2001

Malaysia's leadership is vital in the implementation of free trade within Asean to divert foreign direct investments from China and attract them to the region, says the US-Asean Business Council.

'We believe that unless Malaysia leads and Asean implements the Afta, we are afraid there will be a continuation of FDI flows going to China, rather than coming to Southeast Asia,' said Council president Ernest Z Bower.

He said in the early 1990's, over 70 per cent of FDIs entering the East were going to Southeast Asia and less than 30 per cent going to China, while today, the reverse was true with China now receiving more than 70 per cent.

http://www.malaysiakini.com/News/2001/08/2001080714.php3 Tuesday August 7

Gov't helps a few allies, abuses CEC policy

Susan Loone

10:19pm, Tue: The government has abused the capital and exchange control (CEC) policy in "helping a few people close to them", said a local university lecturer in Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia today.

In his presentation at the Third International Malaysian Studies Conference, Universiti Malaya's Mohamed Aslam said, "It seems that the ruling party is practising the "economics of corrupt democracy".

"Economically, Malaysia has missed an opportunity to stabilise and promote sustainable economic growth by fully utilising the policy," he said in his working paper 'Malaysia: Capital and Exchange Controls, Economics Rational, Stock Market and A Corporate Mess'.

"Malaysia may face another phase of economic crisis from the US economic slowdown and prolonged economic recession in Japan," he added.

In September 1998, Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad implemented the CEC policy to cushion the Asian financial crisis which hit the region in 1997.

Crisis impact

The idea of these measures emerged since the policy package prescribed to Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand by the International Monetary Fund failed to contain the impact of the crisis.

The three-day conference with the theme 'Malaysia in Transformation: Problems and Challenges' was organised by the Malaysian Social Sciences Association, in collaboration with the university's Institute of Malaysian and International Studies and Institute of the Malay World and Civilisation.

The topics covered at the conference include government and politics, labour, immigration and management, women and development, science and technology, environment and society, education and health, international relations and globalisation and culture, language and literature.

Mohamed, who lectures at UM's Faculty of Economics and Administration, said the 1997 economic crisis has struck many large corporations and most of the companies are closely associated to members of Umno.

"Since banks are reluctant to provide loans or refinance the companies in debt, and the companies themselves barely undergo extensive 'market-based' debt restructuring, the government (including public fund entities) has been asked to step in to help those sick firms (selected) by issuing guaranteed bonds or by paying cash," he said.

Indebted companies

"Implicitly, the bonds are financed by the taxpayers and this has created unhappiness in the society," he added.

Mohamed said the CEC policy and expansionary monetary policy have expanded liquidity in the financial system.

However, he added, banks remain sceptical in providing or extending banking facilities to fragile or indebted companies.

"Due to the experience from the effects of the economic crisis, banks are hesitant to provide loans to weak companies to avoid facing another height of non-performing loans," he said.

However, Mohamed said, the capital control (and the fixed exchange rate) would have been ineffective in restoring monetary policy independence without the exchange control.

"Even though the government has received a lot of criticism mainly from portfolio investors who stated that the capital and exchange controls could harm investment, nevertheless the CEC policy has promoted and stimulated economic recovery," he said.

"Although the CEC policy has directly hurt incentives to invest in portfolio instruments, it is not in foreign direct investment (FDI)," he added.

"There are other reasons why FDI is diverted from the country, among them are China's robust economy and the recession in Japan," he explained.

[Portions]

Krugman: Yen to fall further against dollar

Tom Baker C Ginko Kobayashi

Daily Yomiuri Staff Writers

This is the final installment of a three-part exclusive interview by The Yomiuri Shimbun and The Daily Yomiuri with economist Paul Krugman during his recent trip to Japan.

Princeton University Prof. Paul Krugman earned a reputation as a maverick while serving on former U.S. President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors, even though he opposed Reagan's supply-side economics. Krugman also rejected Bill Clinton's talk of international "competitiveness." He now opposes George W. Bush's tax-cut plan as "false pretense." The Daily Yomiuri asked Krugman about his views on the U.S., Asian and European economies and for his prescription on how to beat Japan' economic downturn.

Yomiuri: How do you see the future of the U.S. economy?

Krugman: With high confidence, I can say nobody knows what's happening in the U.S. economy. Some of the indicators are up, some of them are down. We're seven months into the slowdown and still it's not clear if it's a full recession or not.

One story says that the Fed is cutting interest rates dramatically, which takes some time to take effect. So later this year, we're going to have a rapid recovery.

The other story says consumers are eventually going to realize that their jobs are at risk. The downturn will build momentum late this year.

Both of the stories are completely consistent with the numbers. Both of the stories have some psychological validity. We won't know for six months which is right. It's not fun for the Fed. They have to make policy very much in the dark right now.

I'm for very aggressive interest-rate cuts because I know the risks--if the economy expands very rapidly we might have some additional inflation--but I'd be willing to take that risk because I'm terribly afraid of a Japanese-style slump.

Yomiuri: Going back to the prospects for the Japanese economy, if you doubt the effectiveness of the cleanup of banks' nonperforming loans, what is your prescription for the Japanese economy? I don't think you are saying that we should have another war.

Krugman: No. At this point I would say that aggressive monetary policy would have to be the principal driver, accompanied by structural reform.

You wouldn't need inflation targeting if there was positive growth in the working-age population. But that's not an option. Some day, perhaps, Japan will be a very different place, and this won't be such a problem. But I find it very hard to come up with things other than monetary policy that are really usable now.

There has to be a way that monetary policy can fight deflation. It's just a question of trying to find the right levers. The BOJ (Bank of Japan) is very cautious. They are saying, "Well, we don't want to do anything too unusual." That is the reason why they can't do anything.