[Penulis FEER nampaknya berpendapat Malaysia mungkin tidak akan menuju kemelesetan kerana dijangka beberapa faktor lain akan dapat mengimbangi kesan kelembapan ekspot elektronik.

Tetapi ada beberapa perkara yang tidak kena dengan pengumuman angka KDNK sehingga banyak analis tertipu dengannya. Pertama ia diumumkan begitu hampir ulangtahun merdeka... Kedua - inilah pengumuman pertama sejak Mahathir menjawat potfolio menteri kewangan. Dan ketiga - Bank Negara kerap menangguhkan pengumuman - seolah-olah menunggu satu 'benda' tiba terlebih dahulu. Dan yang penting sekali - faktor keempat - ia diumumkan sebelum syarikat besar mengumumkan laporan tahunan kerugian mereka.... Selain faktor itu jangan lupa Singapura yang sedang dihenyak kemelesetan itu akan menyebabkan kubu kuat Umno yang berada di sebelah tambak itu terasa juga...Dengan syarikat gergasi Jepun terpaksa juga membuang pekerja (satu lagi ialah syarikat Amerika), ini bermakna sudah DUA NEGARA yang bertapak di Malaysia itu terpaksa mengalah juga.
- Editor]

http://www.feer.com/2001/0109_06/p062bmoney.html

The Far Eastern Economic Review
Issue cover-dated 6th September 2001

A Receding Bottom Line

By S. Jayasankaran

IS MALAYSIA HEADING into recession? Not quite, according to private-sector economists. But a poll of 17 analysts by Consensus Economics in August showed a mean forecast of just 1.1% for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2001. Three months ago, the same consensus forecast was 4.2%. The dramatic decline in expectations is a direct result of Malaysia's dependence on the electronics industry, which contributes 60% of the country's exports. And, of course, the global economic slowdown that has radiated from the United States in recent months.

On a more positive note, palm oil and petroleum prices are on the rise. And tourist arrivals this year are likely to approach a record-breaking 10 million. Fears surrounding the safety of the ringgit peg have receded in the face of a weaker U.S. dollar since mid-August, when the International Monetary Fund published a report saying that the U.S. trade balance was unsustainable. There had been concerns that the ringgit's peg--set at 3.80 to the greenback in 1998--would be unsustainable as the U.S currency went from strength to strength in the first half of this year. What's more, foreign exchange reserves topped $27 billion in mid-August after dipping below $26 billion in July. Back then, analysts thought that Kuala Lumpur would not have enough money to defend the peg, and would have to devalue to remain competitive.

Malaysia's economy is relatively broad-based. The share of external to total demand in Malaysia is only 57% compared with 73% in Singapore. So the key lies in boosting domestic demand. That's why Kuala Lumpur's fiscal deficit--at more than 4% of GDP this year--will be its highest in a decade. And with public debt at less than 60% of GDP, there is still some room for further economic pump-priming by the government.

The budget, to be released in October, is expected to unveil measures aimed at boosting domestic consumption. Meanwhile, other indicators remain conducive to spending. Three-month money, the industry's benchmark, costs 3.3% while the base lending rate, equivalent to the prime rate in the United States, is about 6.7%. And inflation seems set to stay under 2%.

Officially, unemployment is 3.3%, but that's underestimated. With consolidation in many sectors, it is likely to get much worse, which could hurt a pick-up in domestic demand.